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In my opinion, Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) has two major fundamental advantages. First, we're talking about a dot-com company that survived the dot-com bubble. This is an impressive achievement, on par with Julia Louis-Dreyfus finding success with a second sitcom after Seinfeld.
Second, I caught a bit of Oprah recently when I was home sick with a head cold. Her special guest was Amazon chief Jeff Bezos, and the topic of the day was how much Oprah loves the Kindle reader. Not only did everybody in the audience get a free Kindle, but Ms. Winfrey actually bellowed, "Kiiiinnnnnnnnn-dullllllll!" ("Thank you," stammered Bezos, no doubt overwhelmed by her all-powerful stamp of approval.)
Oprah aside, the key to Amazon's survival so far has been its willingness to adapt. What was once a humble online bookstore is now the internet equivalent of a general store -- on today's Amazon.com, you can pick up a new motherboard for your PC, a pair of winter boots, and a box of popcorn in one fell swoop. The company offers a slew of familiar brand names, which should make the site a popular stop for holiday shopping.
Amazon.com has expanded more than its product line, though. The Kindle's launch -- ill-timed though it may have been, in this age of the airtight consumer budget -- reveals a forward-thinking eagerness to stay relevant in an increasingly digital society. Plus, while eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) is alienating its sellers with new restrictions and fees, Amazon.com is emerging as a viable third-party format for throngs of internet merchants.
From a technical perspective, support for AMZN lies near the $34 level. This region was the site of former resistance in 2006, and this area contained the stock's lows in November. The successful test of support here could provide an ideal entry point to this on-sale stock.
Meanwhile, analysts have taken a predominantly skeptical stance toward this titan of web-based retail. Zacks reports eight Holds and one Sell rating, compared to just five brokerage firms that consider AMZN a Strong Buy. As the shares find a foothold on the charts, upgrades from this group could encourage more buyers to jump on the stock -- thereby lending additional fuel to its future gains.
While smaller players in the internet-retail space may find themselves on life support in the current economic climate, look for Amazon.com to stage a repeat of the phoenix-rising-from-the-ashes routine it pulled off following the dot-com bust. At the end of November, AMZN's price/earnings ratio of 29.3 stands at a whopping discount to its five-year average p/e of 164.1.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-08-2008 @ 7:59AM
Amey said...
I think amazon is going to have a tough season this year.