How much has investor sentiment and the global economic outlook shifted in the past six months? Consider this: stocks have fallen so much during this year-old recession that 2,267 companies around the globe in the MSCI World Index have cash positions above the value of their stock and debt.
Further, that's a level of 'offering investors profits for free' that's eight times higher than the last bear market. Global companies in this category include Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), Italy's Danieli SpA, and South Korea's Namyang Dairy Products.
The U.S. and global economic slowdowns stemming from both a cyclical trough in the U.S. and the global financial crisis have wiped out more than $34 trillion in stock market value, globally. However, the mark-downs do not, in and of themselves, represent a 'buy' signal for investors, so says economist David H. Wang.
"The values are indicative of a significantly deepening recession and pervasive fear. There's fear of counterparties, fear of a lack of return on investment, fear that a home mortgage of business loan won't be repaid," Wang said. "This fear is perhaps the biggest drag on commercial activity today and until it recedes, corporate revenue and earnings will be constrained, which will make it a difficult environment for stocks."
Another indicator of that fear: short-term interest rates, Wang said. "LIBOR [the London Interbank Offer Rate] has been gliding up and is now at 2.19% after trending lower last month," Wang said. "That means banks are still concerned about a future cash crunch. Liquidity is still not sufficient, so central banks will have to do more to add funds to the financial system to enable commerce to function."
Hence, Wang says while many stocks are selling for about book value, "there's nothing to say that they can't drop further and be priced below book value."
Market Analysis: Forewarned is forearmed. Stocks may be 'cheap' but that doesn't mean they can't get cheaper - - much cheaper. The view from here: cash remains king until U.S. monthly job lay-offs decline for several months.
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