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How about during the next economic boom foreigners buy U.S. products?

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Do you remember 'decoupling' -- the notion that emerging market economies China, India, and Brazil / Latin America, among others, could grow independently without needing U.S. consumption?

Well, decoupling is on pace to to go down in history with Hitler's notion that the former Soviet Union, now Russia, could be invaded / conquered in six weeks (and that the Russian winter was irrelevant in warfare) as one of the most misguided macro beliefs in the modern era.

Wanted: Foreign consumers

"The global economy's choir is becoming more diverse, but it's still singing an American tune," economist Richard Felson said. "What we've learned in the initial decade of globalization is that new centers of economic activity are forming in Asia, Latin America, Central/Eastern Europe, and the Middle East, but these centers are not nearly mature enough to be considered self-contained, self-reliant zones. Until that occurs, a U.S. recession will slow these regions dramatically, which is what we've seen during this economic downturn."


One key to the independent growth of these regions: thriving, domestic economies that drive growth without dependence on export sales to the United States, Felson said. "China and Brazil in particular, have seen the folly of export-dependent growth. They've seen it's no panacea. It contains massive vulnerabilities," he said. "The export-based system is great when the revenue is rolling in, but if anything should happen to your primary, importing country, that's big trouble. We now have big trouble, globally."

Felson's recommendation for a healthier global economy heading into the new decade? More internal business activity in emerging markets, along with an expansion of middle and working classes in these countries, leading to increased consumption of U.S goods -- from cars, to farm equipment, to wind turbines.

"Prior to the global recession, consumption of U.S. goods was good, but in the next economic expansion emerging market governments need to insure that it does even better. They have to eliminate non-tariff and cultural barriers that have hindered sales of U.S. goods," Felson said. "Higher consumption in these nations will help correct one of the biggest imbalances of the past decade, which was the reliance on U.S. consumption for emerging market growth."

The above will not lead to 'decoupled' emerging markets, but to a global economy less-susceptible to an economic downturn in any region -- Americas, Europe, or Asia -- he said.

Economic Analysis: In retrospect, many economists now agree it was foolish for emerging markets to rely so much on U.S. consumption for domestic growth. But, while the gravy train was running, it apparently was hard to pass up. However, that train, operating at an unsafe speed, has now slowed; hence, the sooner emerging markets expand internal commerce, the sooner the global economy will enter a more-balanced GDP growth model.

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Last updated: July 10, 2009: 10:17 PM

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