Do you remember 'decoupling' -- the notion that emerging market economies China, India, and Brazil / Latin America, among others, could grow independently without needing U.S. consumption?Well, decoupling is on pace to to go down in history with Hitler's notion that the former Soviet Union, now Russia, could be invaded / conquered in six weeks (and that the Russian winter was irrelevant in warfare) as one of the most misguided macro beliefs in the modern era.
Wanted: Foreign consumers
"The global economy's choir is becoming more diverse, but it's still singing an American tune," economist Richard Felson said. "What we've learned in the initial decade of globalization is that new centers of economic activity are forming in Asia, Latin America, Central/Eastern Europe, and the Middle East, but these centers are not nearly mature enough to be considered self-contained, self-reliant zones. Until that occurs, a U.S. recession will slow these regions dramatically, which is what we've seen during this economic downturn."
One key to the independent growth of these regions: thriving, domestic economies that drive growth without dependence on export sales to the United States, Felson said. "China and Brazil in particular, have seen the folly of export-dependent growth. They've seen it's no panacea. It contains massive vulnerabilities," he said. "The export-based system is great when the revenue is rolling in, but if anything should happen to your primary, importing country, that's big trouble. We now have big trouble, globally."
Felson's recommendation for a healthier global economy heading into the new decade? More internal business activity in emerging markets, along with an expansion of middle and working classes in these countries, leading to increased consumption of U.S goods -- from cars, to farm equipment, to wind turbines.
"Prior to the global recession, consumption of U.S. goods was good, but in the next economic expansion emerging market governments need to insure that it does even better. They have to eliminate non-tariff and cultural barriers that have hindered sales of U.S. goods," Felson said. "Higher consumption in these nations will help correct one of the biggest imbalances of the past decade, which was the reliance on U.S. consumption for emerging market growth."
The above will not lead to 'decoupled' emerging markets, but to a global economy less-susceptible to an economic downturn in any region -- Americas, Europe, or Asia -- he said.
Economic Analysis: In retrospect, many economists now agree it was foolish for emerging markets to rely so much on U.S. consumption for domestic growth. But, while the gravy train was running, it apparently was hard to pass up. However, that train, operating at an unsafe speed, has now slowed; hence, the sooner emerging markets expand internal commerce, the sooner the global economy will enter a more-balanced GDP growth model.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-08-2008 @ 2:14PM
Jerry said...
By far the biggest consumer in the world ahs been the middle class American. The lower part of the middle class has barrowed so far into the future that in essences they have no economic future. This middle class macine was the machine that has diven economic expansion for over 100 years, over looking the great deprsssion. This machine became a bubble with all the free and easy credit. So, this bubble is deflateing as if a pin has been thrust into it. POP ! It's all over but the crying ! ! ! !
1-10-2009 @ 6:32PM
Joe said...
Fact is, we foreigners did/do buy your American products. And some of them, believe it or not, are quite GOOD! I purchased the last Apple Tower G5, Made in the USA,and it's splendid! Last one made in the USA before they started to manufacture them in China. I paid over $2,000 for it, so hopefully, some of that money did find its way back into the pockets of a deserving family in America. We foreigners do help you Americans create jobs by buying your products manufactured in the USA, but the corporations keep outsourcing them to the 3rd World. There's just fewer and fewer made in the USA products all the time. The problem isn't the average American who work very hard for what they get, it's the corporations who don't believe enough in America. You ought to penalize those who outsource jobs to other countries with hefty taxes, and reward those who keep American jobs at home with huge tax breaks. Americans are very capable of producing good products, but the American corporations have to believe in their own people and the government has to reward the ones who keep the jobs at home, and punish those which don't.