The case of the American car manufacturers being brought to their knees by the housing bubble, sub-prime lending and derivatives developed on Wall Street has been in the press for most of the year. If you believe that these issues are the primary cause of this almost imminent collapse of the industry you must be running one of them.
The truth is that General Motors (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F) and privately held Chrysler are led by bloated egos, with cars being built by bloated unions that are now begging to be saved by a bloated government. Except for the fact that the federal government can print money at will, it would have declared bankruptcy a long time ago itself.
Another difference between the bloated companies and their unions in comparison to the government is that the companies and unions could only lie and fool themselves for so long -- the government has proven that it can do it forever; and it is in this that it displays its greatest creativity.
It looks like a bailout is on its way from Congress but this may only be putting a terminal patient on life support. I have great concerns that the U.S car industry will go bankrupt next year or soon after the government stops propping it up with a cash infusion. Or perhaps, as some have suggested, it may morph into a single entity, through bankruptcy or otherwise.
It has been proven over and over again that better design and better marketing can lead to higher profit margins and greater demand for a company's products. Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Rolex and others sell commoditized products available all over the world by many manufacturers, but still demand a premium. I am convinced that all of the issues we have been chattering about for days, months, and years figure into the equation, but none more than design and quality of product.
As long as someone is willing, or can be induced, to pay the price, then a broad range of other matters can be overcome. It is only when companies lose sight of the customer and the product that all their other flaws come to anyone's attention. Ask any athlete at any level what the most important thing is to maintaining peace in the locker room and he will tell you: winning. That is true for teams where everyone gets along and where they don't even talk to each other. You must succeed on the field! This is where the automobile industry has failed and continues to fail -- on the field; on the streets.
If the car companies do not change their approach radically they are doomed. Sure you have to trim costs and the UAW is a big part of that, but many companies pay similar benefits. Perhaps they will be in trouble in the future, but as long as the products are in demand there is no story about the bloated tech industry.
There are great American cars and many success stories, but the majority of the cars are mundane, second-rate products. Toyota created the Lexus brand and before you knew it, the entire line was competing with the best in the world -- not because of its cost structure, but design and quality -- and they charge more for the cars to boot.
We can do this as well when we apply ourselves. About 20 years ago Ford set out to create a better car and promoted its $3 billion dollar R&D effort in television commercials. The car was the Taurus and it was the leading seller in its class for almost ten years, beating out popular Japanese and German competitors. When this was happening I thought it must have learned something, but for reasons I do not understand it did not continue the process it had started and failed to produce equally competitive cars in other classes or a follow on to the Taurus.
The U.S. car industry will need years of improvement to get back into shape, but this means a total reshaping from top to bottom. The government can help in sustaining the car industry for a while. It can guide it through a restructuring process, cutting costs and reorganizing, but the talent or the inspiration required to be self sustaining cannot be legislated. If the companies are to survive in any form, then that is the long term challenge.
Can a bloated government save a bloated industry? I fear not. I do support keeping the industry alive for now, but only until the economy can be stabilized.
| Yes - they are toast in less than two years | |
|---|---|
| No - they can survive with six months support |
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I do not own shares of GM or F.
5-Hour Energy: A Success Equal Parts Caffeine, Chemistry and…
Suddenly, Amazon Doesn't Love Its Moms Anymore


Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-09-2008 @ 11:56AM
mark m said...
why not give every u.s citizen with a valid drivers license 25,000. to spend on a new american car. this way we all get to have a new car, bail the car companies out, also cut down on their bloated inventory. we also get something for our money.
12-09-2008 @ 12:46PM
Jason said...
It's hard to imagine anything but bankruptcy for the U.S. car industry.
www.eeinvesting.com
12-09-2008 @ 1:03PM
David R. said...
We need to create a new market that the American companies can thrive in, since they've been out-competed in the Ford Taurus segment by Toyota and etc...
The Smart car costs $11.5k and is much smaller than most cars. The micro car market has too few cars in it, and we could give it a huge kick by relaxing safety standards on the segment for a few years, which would allow manufacturers to try out new materials such as carbon composite structures. It would reduce the time to market and engineering costs as well.
By using lightweight materials we can create a positive spiral, where the car can have a smaller engine, less powerful components, and weigh less -- making the power/weight ratio still attractive. MPG numbers in the high 40's should be easy if you get the weight down and use a ~600cc engine. What's more, carbon composite is coincidentally safest in an egg shape, which happens to also be quite aerodynamic. Bonus x2!
As a motorcyclist I would be willing to purchase a car like this in addition to my current vehicle, which is still useful for heavy tasks such as towing but which is wasteful for the 3 mile commute I make every day to work. "City cars" could solve so many problems, it's not even funny. And we HAVE to give American car manufacturers a leg up on it, otherwise the next thing you know, 90% of them will be imported from you-know-where.
12-09-2008 @ 1:30PM
Rafael Moscatel said...
I couldn't agree with you more.
Given all of the recent criticism of the auto industry, I’m surprised that our leadership hasn’t broadened this critique to include all of our industries and sectors.
Americans love to pat ourselves on the back and boast about how we work harder than anybody in the world, but do we work smarter? Maybe this crisis is exactly what we need to get back to… the basics of business management.
Let’s face it, our prosperous last few years, whether inflated by a manipulated stock market or not, have accustomed us to windfall profits and easy credit. This has UNDOUBTEDLY affected the way we do business at ALL management levels, not just at the top. It’s made us soft and too comfortable.
As Obama said referring to his plans for the budget… “we should get our best bang for the buck.” If my business was suffering as a result of the economic downturn, before asking for a hand-out or increase in my credit line, I could re-examine my budget and bottom line.
For one, I could review all of my vendors. Maybe one of my vendors is a huge multi-national corporation but my needs could be just as met, and for a better price by going with a local provider.
If I sign a contract with a more affordable vendor I am saving my company money, forcing the vendor I left to work harder for my business and helping stimulate growth with my new vendor. I mean, isn’t this what business is all about, making money while saving money?
Consider the offsite storage business. If you could only imagine how much small to medium sized businesses lose each year just by storing their records in public storage facilities it would make your job drop.
I recently switched a client from using pubic storage at $600/month to a commercial facility which only costs him $75/month. He was thrilled. That money is best spent elsewhere.
Another perfect example of this is the software industry, basically still taking advantage of a world still very unfamiliar with the true value of its products and services. I’m in the Document Management business and will tell you that the majority of my competitors are ridiculously overpriced. My company was actually created as a response to a consulting client of mine who complained about the true value of the software they were being pitched.
My software, and my business, ShortcutSpace, is a response to the governments insistence on rewarding failure. It’s just killing our national business philosophy headline by headline.
This problem doesn’t need a bailout, It’s about an attitude adjustment. And sometimes the only way to get somebody to change their attitude is to stop treating them like a baby.
Rafael Moscatel
ShortcutSpace, Inc. Simplified Document Management
http://www.shortcutspace.com
http://www.moscatelassociates.wordpress.com
12-09-2008 @ 1:51PM
Ben said...
I am absolutely against bailouts, but this is bullshit. Give the "Big 3" the bailout already.
Why make them beg for 15 billion (right!?), while we just gave 700 billion to banks, no questions asked?
btw I read somewhere that they already lost 8 billion of the bailout money already.
12-09-2008 @ 2:09PM
pete said...
Giving Billions to the big three will not help them turn to green solutions for there automobiles overnight. They have had years to see the advent of Toyotas Prius and the gains that have been made in battery power. The big three should go into bankruptcy so that can start over again with new contracts and a new attitude. I saw a very smug look on the face of the UAW leader. This is not the humble look I would expect from some one who possiblly could lose his job. The UAW has had a very sweet deal over the years but there attitude has been one of entitlement. Not any more.
12-09-2008 @ 2:24PM
Iridium said...
The problem is the bloat.
See GM is a huge giant living in a village. Everyone likes the giant because he can do more work than anybody else. The only problem is that it takes 10 times the ammount of food to feed the giant as a normal person. He's eating all the food and the rest of the village is starting to starve. The mayor says we can't get rid of the giant, if we do who is going to do all the work. He does to much to let him go.
The people agree and decide to keep the giant going by giving him some of thier food. A year later everyone is dead becuase they starved to death. The giant didn't really need to eat all the food, but he had a really big ego and said you can't survive without me. When everyone else was dead he just moved to another village to start all over again.
That's the story of nearly every CEO and corporate board in America.
12-09-2008 @ 2:36PM
peter s. said...
The automobile industry needs to go into bankruptcy so that they can come out stronger in this era of economic belt tightening. With new contracts they may stay afloat, but without a new attitude toward building green cars then they will go the way of the Studebaker,the Hudson and the Edsel.
12-09-2008 @ 2:39PM
Sheldon L said...
Thank you all for your comments. It is nice to have an intelligent discussion about an important issue.
Iridium, you make a good point, few CEO's or boards have enough skin in the game.
12-09-2008 @ 2:42PM
misc. said...
I think there should be a plan set up where if a new car is purchased for $20,000- the consumer pays about $15,000 or whatever arbitrary figure, and the Government would kick in the rest. That would be a direct benefit to an American. The car companies should also attempt to move current inventory at rock bottom prices rather than leave them sitting in the Port at Long Beach.
12-09-2008 @ 8:52PM
Sandy said...
GM's stock was $64 per share when Wagoner took over in 2001. Now the
share is $5. This to me does not represent success.
12-09-2008 @ 9:23PM
Sheldon L said...
Sandy,
I appreciate your sentiments very much but Wagoner was no more than a caretaker. It took a lot longer than 6 years to wreck the company.
12-09-2008 @ 9:22PM
rock said...
The big three won't retool there plants unless forced to. That's why they are getting there as*es kicked. Why change anything when people are still buying cheaply made cars for high prices. If the foriegn comepitition didn't come along we would still be driving chevettes, citations, k-cars and pintos. Change or perish. Unions don't make america strong, hard work does. Do you know any union auto workers that have to work hard?
12-09-2008 @ 9:32PM
Bryon said...
how many americans stand on a line and make $73.00 an hour? Most people I know are around $40.00 and thats in NY. Were suppose to make less, pay more taxes so it can go and pay people making more than most? Is it me or is this fu**ed up? They have been living large for years, time to come back to reality! I need my money more than I need to pay someone elses HIRE wage!
12-10-2008 @ 3:21AM
Tom S. said...
Gm has scores of Executives being driven around in Limos with stock options and large expense accounts and people want to blame the guys working the line for the downfall of the auto industry. Give me a break. Sounds to me like the lamestream media has done its job. Its created an extremely large amount of ignorance. These people work hard and long hours and believe me they don't have any spare time nor do they take home a bloated figure like $73 an hour.
12-10-2008 @ 8:42AM
duane said...
Hey I got an Idea, let the oil companies bail out the auto makers...they are in bed together anyway!
12-10-2008 @ 8:59AM
jerry said...
Right on! Bloated egos, bloated unions, poor quality, shoddy workmanship, inferior products, lack of vision, arrogance extraordinaire. BANKRUPTCY will offer a cure. bailout will foster bad behaviors. I like the idea of letting the oil companies bail out the gas guzzling car industry.
12-10-2008 @ 3:07PM
Vince Yambrovich said...
Sheldon, thanks for an insightful well-written article. I had to laugh when I read the last two sentences. So - you want to keep the patient alive just long enough for us to pass out of this nasty recession? I tend to agree more with Peter S. - file for bankruptcy if they are unable to self-heal themselves.
Check out a plan that will save one of the Big 3 at http://www.salesstrategynow.wordpress.com
12-11-2008 @ 2:46PM
Harv said...
Unions, are you happy? You've driven the automakers into this. Now it's your turn to join the "real world" like the rest of us, no retirement funds, no medical insurance. Your run away costs there have forced this to happen, I HOPE YOU ARE ALL HAPPY. Your time and place in the world was back in the 1940's and since then has failed to keep up with the rest of the world.
Make major concessions while you can ! Imagine yourself unemployed and without all those bennies. Yes, you did a good job, but your time and place has gone. Before long, no cars will be American like the hay days of the 1950's and 1960's. It was the 1970's that things bombed, wake up and smell the roses !