The world's largest economy is on pace to record its longest recession since 1947, a survey released Wednesday predicted.
A decline in consumer spending will push U.S. GDP down 2.4% in Q1 2009, and another 0.5% in Q2 2009, according to 51 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
If the above occurs, it would be the longest U.S. recession since 1947, so says economist Richard Felson, who did not participate in the Bloomberg survey.
"It would be a truly negative circumstance, the weakest economic conditions since the end of World War II and the weakest job market conditions since the 1981-1982 Reagan recession," Felson said. "A Q3 2009 recovery would give us a 20-22 month long recession, which is just dreadful. But you can understand why, with housing, manufacturing, exports, business investment, and consumer spending all trending in the wrong direction. It would be the 'mother of all contractions.' "
Further, with the weak aforementioned demand characteristics, the economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the U.S. unemployment rate to soar to 8.2% by the end of next year, up from the current 6.7%.
An 8.2% unemployment rate "would be very bad news for corporate revenue and earnings, and the stock market, in addition to increasing social service costs of the states," Felson said.
"I can't see the Dow or the stock market generating much momentum, certainly not for the first half of 2009, if these forecasts prove to be accurate," Felson said. "Say what you will about the auto bailout, it has to pass in some form, as adding another 500,000 workers to the unemployment roles would only deepen the recession. Those workers have to be employed in some way, even if they're sweeping streets and clearing debris from vacant lots."
Congressional lawmakers are expected to begin debate on a $15 billion rescue for General Motors (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F), and Chrysler in a day or so, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.
Felson said that given the seriousness of the U.S. contraction, the nation has to think in terms of "a large and continual program to provide fiscal stimulus to make-up for declines in business investment and consumer spending." His recommendation: $600 billion in January 2009, followed by $500 billion in April 2009, and another $300-500 billion in July 2009, if the U.S. economy is not a sustainable growth track.
Economic Analysis: An 8.2% unemployment rate would have widespread economic and social ramifications. Further, the augmented rate, which includes discouraged workers currently not counted in the official unemployment rate, would soar above 15% -- meaning that about one out every six Americans would be unemployed. The view from here argues that would extend the bear market through at least Q2 2009, with the Dow likely plunging to new lows in the 6,500 to 7,000 range.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
12-10-2008 @ 3:39PM
j said...
Recession is only the beginning.
http://news.aol.com/article/riots-could-topple-greek-government/270395
"It's very simple — we want the government to fall. This boy's death was the last straw for us," Petros Constantinou, an organizer with the Socialist Workers Party, said in Athens. "This government wants the poor to pay for all the country's problems — never the rich — and they keep those who protest in line using police oppression."
(NEW WORLD)- (GERMAN IDEALISM)-(DIALECTIC MATERIALISM) GWF HEGEL, ET. AL.
THE METHODS OF GERMAN IDEALISM CONTROL THE WORLD AND THE USA OF WHICH IS NOW GOING THROUGH A TRANSITIONAL STAGE OF THE STATE WILL RULE AND THE "CITIZENS"
WILL CEASE TO HAVE CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHTS AND LIBERTIES !!
12-10-2008 @ 3:48PM
BHarrison said...
They lie . . . they lie . . . and they lie!
To date, the government and the economists have continuously lied about the actual situation and conditions in hopes of easing the impact . . . and all that it is doing is dragging our these events and exacerbating the overall situations.
Just as they duped people into buying overpriced homes and going more into debt for the "spending" that was needed to perpetuate te previous phony economic boom (that they [Bush and Congress] were so proud of, they are trying to convince the American people to invest in a chaotic and unstable stock market without regard to the risks. And Congress has NOT PROVIDED the FULL DISCLOSURE and TRANSPARENCY to the use of the $700 Billion Bail Out monies.
The people are NOT going to return to the investment markets until the government RESTORES INTEGRITY to the markets by requiring FULL DISCLOSURE of the corporations financial reports; and until all of the exorbitantly paid INCOMPETENT and/or CORRUPT CEOs and upper management are replaced. Otherwise your investment monies are being skimmed off the top for management salaries and compensations of exorbitant amounts.
This is going to be second ONLY to the Depression of the 1930s . . . and it MAY become even worse than that.
If they want my investment money, then they have to provide INTEGRITY in the markets.
12-10-2008 @ 5:12PM
bluegrassguitar said...
Felson said, "Say what you will about the auto bailout, it has to pass in some form, as adding another 500,000 workers to the unemployment roles would only deepen the recession."
Between Jan. 1990 and Oct. 2008, the textile & apparel industries lost over 1.2 MILLION jobs, not including their suppliers, to 3rd world countries with low wage rates, no enforced child labor laws and no safety and environmental standards. Whole cities in the U.S.A. were and still are economically devastated. Where was our help?
12-10-2008 @ 5:24PM
Joe said...
Look what's going on in Greece. They aren't going to take it. The Fed is the cause.
12-10-2008 @ 5:26PM
Joe said...
I'm stocking gold!
12-10-2008 @ 6:39PM
john s. said...
RE: the BHarrison histerics...there has been legislation passed called the Sarbanes-Oxley act which requires both CEO's and CFO's to audit the integrity of their financial statements and to have same integrity externally audited [at great expense]. Penalty for faulty disclosure is extreme, including jail.
Also, economists mostly don't lie; they merely guess poorly.
12-10-2008 @ 7:39PM
Ashley said...
There are millions of Toyotas, Nissans, Hondas, etc piling up at Our ports and on the import dealers lots! There is no way that any of the big three will be around when the importers offer Big discounts after Christmas! Any bailout is going to be just another example of the government giving Our hard earned tax dollars to Companies doomed to fail. I predict that all Democrats will be voted out of office next term if They force this give away on the Taxpayers!! A Depression is eminent and We will really need this Money later to help millions of folks from starving to death when the World economy Totally Collapses early next year!!!!
12-10-2008 @ 10:12PM
Alan Carlson said...
The first question should have been, "Less than one year". That is what I would vote for.
12-10-2008 @ 8:20PM
nolobeach said...
The job climate is absolutely hideous. I know educated people who have been out of work literally for years. I bet they aren't counted in the numbers of unemployed or under-employed. We honestly cannot count on government or our employers to lookout for our future wellbeing and retirement. You can only count on your family to look out for you. I discovered one of the best books you'll ever find about finance, "How to Become Filthy Rich on Your Current Income" at www.how-to-become-rich.com. If people read books like this one we wouldn’t have the current situation we do. CASH! Piles of cold hard cash is the best way to weather the current economic situation.
12-10-2008 @ 11:00PM
nick said...
With Obama having a Nixon type adminstration we won't come out of it in his term. The guy will have to bury alot of bodys to stay out of jail himself. When this governor starts to sing to get a light sentance and Rizko starts to sing his Chief of Staff, Rep Jackson, and alot of others will have a hard time staying out of jail, and SEN DURBIN better burn those e mails.
12-11-2008 @ 8:01AM
BHarrison said...
To: John S.: RE: the BHarrison histerics...there has been legislation passed called the Sarbanes-Oxley act which requires both CEO's and CFO's to audit the integrity of their financial statements and to have same integrity externally audited [at great expense]. Penalty for faulty disclosure is extreme, including jail.
==============
Well John, That all sounds nice, but going back to the Silverado S&L scandal, Enron, and now AIG, etc., etc., etc. It appears that the "wothless paper" (investments) were not identified and/or flagged by the auditing firms. A major problem for MANY decades is that, despite your referenced legislation, MANY of the financial auditing firms have tacitly been complicit in all of these pyramid and Ponzi schemes that used "creative accounting methods" to perpetuate the FRAUDS.
The FACTS are that many of the BIG national auditing firms WERE COMPLICIT by their failure to note these descrepancies. And IF the CEOs, CFOs, etc. were responsible "to audit the integrity of their financial statements and to have same integrity externally audited [at great expense]. Penalty for faulty disclosure is extreme, including jail." Then what have they claimed for so long to NOT KNOW the extent of the "worthless paper" they might/are holding?
John, you can't have it "both ways", the financial audit firms and the CEOs and CFOs either "did their jobs" or they didn't . . . or they are just flat out lying to cover up their "crimes". And how many of the BIG audit firms have gone under as a result of lawsuits about their failure to diligently do their duty . . . and not too many have gone to jail though.
John, it isn't "hysterics"; it is merely pointing out the truth, which so many, like yourself, obviously want to ignore.
12-11-2008 @ 8:19AM
BBOB said...
JOE YOU BETTER LEAVE THE GOLD FOR OTHERS.... AND STOCK FOOD , WATER, AND GAS
12-11-2008 @ 9:02AM
mark said...
we have a central bank, it is private, and it is called the federal reserve. This private bank coins or currency. Thomas Jefferson warned us ( google his banking quotes ) not to go down this path.
I believe that if the US treasury took back the coining of our currency, it would once again be the strongest as it would have the american people ie gov. support and backing. We know this course will be dangerous, for the last time this was tryed was in 1963 with the signing of
EO 1111 by Kennedy. The treasury printed treasury notes for a couple of months. Whwn Kennedy was gone they very queitly stop the printing
12-11-2008 @ 9:30AM
kirby said...
I was around for the deep recession of the early 80's. That's why I started my own business. This recession is going to be far deeper and longer. A large chunk of the female workforce lost their jobs and couldn't get rehired. Jobs and opportunites will go back to being male only. I've tried to tell young women that the first thing to detiorate when the economy crashes are gender relationships, they didn't believe me. Believe it now, it'll be survival of the fittest, women are weak and passive compared to men and will be easily bullied out of work if a man wants the job. Start your own business or make friends with a woman who owns a business. Prostitution will make a huge comeback.
12-11-2008 @ 9:31AM
craig said...
speaking of bailing out big 3; my wife is on biz trip; rented a dodge; she calls me to let me know that she was stuck on road cuz car broke down; (25,000) miles. fortunetly a police officer was driving by and was gracious enough to help her and drove to the nearest car rental and came back with the rental agent and replaced vehicle(Japanese thank the Lord.) Dodge was bucking and then wouldn't move with burning smell. Sounds like another well made American car.
12-11-2008 @ 9:41AM
doc said...
12-10-2008 @ 8:20PM
"nolobeach said...
The job climate is absolutely hideous. I know educated people who have been out of work literally for years."
so do i, but here in the real world, we call them "bums"
12-11-2008 @ 10:08AM
Shawn said...
to Ashley: Most of the cars building up at ports are luxury cars, BMWs, etc, Toyota and Honda make more cars in The US than the "American Auto makers" in fact Honda is the biggest Exporter of US made cars, they make them here and send them to Europe, I would say if it werent for the economy and job losses we would be better off if the "Big 3" failed (and actually Ford is not that bad off, so really 2 of the Big 3) and the REAL American car makers Toyota and Honda would fill the void with much more stable jobs and better cars.
12-11-2008 @ 10:20AM
finely tuned and polished said...
I honestly believe its time for all to take stock within ones self. The situation should have us all carefully.. reviewing all that has happened, and come to realize what you and I are actually thought of, or worth to the US Government. Does anyone believe this hit we are having now should have taken place around the time of 9/11?? Can anyone imagine the damage it would have caused? But better yet imagine the quicker recovery we would have had, vs: no over whelming of bad loans, insurance companies showing no bail outs, Fannie-Freddie- car bail-outs, banks-bailed out and the list continues. Or maybe.. was the 3 step sub-prime loan to qualify was the only new kid on the block in tring to make a quick recovery? Or imagine this: All in the government were effected by the "devil's hand shake of dollars" " Watch thy own ass"
12-12-2008 @ 1:08PM
MZ. Topaz said...
I feel the only way the Big 3 should get that bail out money would make an agreement to bring back all the jobs back that they moved to other countries. It is really sad that they come to our goverment for this bailout. I also feel they should be in those other countries asking their goverments to bail them out. A big part of this recession is due to them re locating the jobs they took from us.
12-11-2008 @ 11:06AM
Greg Sheehan said...
There seems to be a contradiction concerning unemployment. If unemployment is indeed climbing to 8.2%, Why are there reportedly so many illegal aliens still working/living in the U.S.? Supposedly, only one million of the estimated 12 million illegal have left the country in the past 12 months.