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Economists see longest U.S. recession since 1947, survey says

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The world's largest economy is on pace to record its longest recession since 1947, a survey released Wednesday predicted.

A decline in consumer spending will push U.S. GDP down 2.4% in Q1 2009, and another 0.5% in Q2 2009, according to 51 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

If the above occurs, it would be the longest U.S. recession since 1947, so says economist Richard Felson, who did not participate in the Bloomberg survey.

"It would be a truly negative circumstance, the weakest economic conditions since the end of World War II and the weakest job market conditions since the 1981-1982 Reagan recession," Felson said. "A Q3 2009 recovery would give us a 20-22 month long recession, which is just dreadful. But you can understand why, with housing, manufacturing, exports, business investment, and consumer spending all trending in the wrong direction. It would be the 'mother of all contractions.' "

Further, with the weak aforementioned demand characteristics, the economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the U.S. unemployment rate to soar to 8.2% by the end of next year, up from the current 6.7%.

An 8.2% unemployment rate "would be very bad news for corporate revenue and earnings, and the stock market, in addition to increasing social service costs of the states," Felson said.

"I can't see the Dow or the stock market generating much momentum, certainly not for the first half of 2009, if these forecasts prove to be accurate," Felson said. "Say what you will about the auto bailout, it has to pass in some form, as adding another 500,000 workers to the unemployment roles would only deepen the recession. Those workers have to be employed in some way, even if they're sweeping streets and clearing debris from vacant lots."

Congressional lawmakers are expected to begin debate on a $15 billion rescue for General Motors (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F), and Chrysler in a day or so, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.

Felson said that given the seriousness of the U.S. contraction, the nation has to think in terms of "a large and continual program to provide fiscal stimulus to make-up for declines in business investment and consumer spending." His recommendation: $600 billion in January 2009, followed by $500 billion in April 2009, and another $300-500 billion in July 2009, if the U.S. economy is not a sustainable growth track.

Economic Analysis: An 8.2% unemployment rate would have widespread economic and social ramifications. Further, the augmented rate, which includes discouraged workers currently not counted in the official unemployment rate, would soar above 15% -- meaning that about one out every six Americans would be unemployed. The view from here argues that would extend the bear market through at least Q2 2009, with the Dow likely plunging to new lows in the 6,500 to 7,000 range.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 06:16 AM

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