Will crude go up or down before the end of the year? Since it has dropped from $147 in the summer to just above $40 recently and demand is falling, betting on down makes sense.
Americans are using less gas. There is probably little reason to think that will change. Oil imports by China, a huge consumer, dropped in November to their lowest point this year, according to Xinhua news agency.
But, the drop in consumption is a collateral effect of the recession. It is, by some measures, an "accident."
What is not an accident is the need for oil producers to get prices up. Economies including Russia, Venezuela, and Iran count on crude for a great deal of their income and their ability to keep balanced national budgets. Russia, which is not a member of OPEC, will probably work with the cartel to cut production and raise prices.
The market laughed at OPEC cuts in September and oil continued to fall. But members of the cartel are desperate now and will probably take a much different view of what they need to do at their December meeting. Getting oil prices back toward $60 or $70 will be hard, but it is entirely possible.
OPEC ministers have been discussing a production cut of two million barrels a day. It their economic advisers say that is not enough to get prices up sharply, the figure could rise to three million or more.
Prices are going up. OPEC and Russia control too much crude. They can cut supply until the cows come home.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-11-2008 @ 5:50AM
Not driving said...
Go ahead and CUT oil production.....raise the prices too. People simply aren't buying gas because they are unemployed, laid off, under-employed, lost their entire life savings/401K....went into foreclosure or bankruptcy.
Just like the oil companies to suck us dry for a year and they screwed themselves in the process.
TOO BAD!
So go ahead and raise prices, nobody is buying the crap.
BTW, look at Brazil, it does not import nor produce oil for transportation. They use SUGAR ETHANOL when they learned the gas shortage lesson in the 1970's!
Instead we have the all powerful CORN LOBBY that is much stronger than the SUGAR lobby to go to Washington DC to secure big deals.
Come to find out, it isn't cost efficient and highly TOXIC to our environment, to convert CORN to ethanol based fuel.
SUGAR can be converted much easier.
Think the technology doesn't exist? FORD has cars on the road in Brazil that have a sensor to adjust for the varying fuel grade of sugar ethanol fuel.
The biggest oil field in the world sits in Detroit Michigan. Throw those idiots out (except at Ford).....let Russia, Venezuela and the Middle East sit and spin for their precious oil.
12-11-2008 @ 6:16AM
al coholic said...
The oil producing companies are as hooked on the revenue from oil exports as we usually are on imports.
What works in our favor is that most exporting countries will cheat so they can selfishly maximize their "oil habit."
12-11-2008 @ 6:21AM
al scotti said...
they can cut the production to zero,then opec makes zero $$, NOT GRILLED CAMEL AGAIN ACHMED, LOLOLOL
12-11-2008 @ 8:23AM
John said...
OPEC, was originally formed to keep the price of oil low, started to raise the price after the Shah of Iran raised prices to pay for all the military equipment he was buying from us (and he bought a lot). Nixon/Kissinger could've sent the Shah packing, but said nothing, and other oil producing countries joined the price hikes. Synthetic oil was mass produced to support World War II by Nazi Germany, and that was ancient technology. We, today, could become a MAJOR oil exporting country. We have the largest coal fields in the world, and converting that coal to oil, aqnd then to diesel & gasoline is not the problem of years ago. So, go ahead OPEC, raise the price to $1000.00 a barrel, we have the means and will, to sustain ourselves, AND, export to the rest of the world. And while we're at it, we can export ELF, and the rest of the enviro-wackos to other countries so they can become as screwed up as we have become.
12-11-2008 @ 10:06AM
User123 said...
If they "cut supply until the cows come home", where do you think they are going to store the oil? Is it just as simple matter of closing the valve? I don't think so. It's costly. They regulate flow by storing it in tankers; which they rent and have to pay $$$. As a side note, they can't even meet the cuts they aggreed to in Semptember. Only ~60% of those cuts have been implemented.
http://www.thenational.ae/article/20081204/BUSINESS/479885046/1042
12-11-2008 @ 9:19AM
JCH said...
What if Canada and Mexico and the United States cut production?
12-11-2008 @ 9:43AM
JVR said...
Go ahead lower the production. OPEC and Russia are slowly building their own coffins and pounding the nails in themselves. No one has the money to buy the overpriced pruduct. Everyone one is sick of it. they should be happy at $40.00. Wait and see what happens if the price goes up.....
12-11-2008 @ 1:26PM
Iridium said...
Don't blame OPEC. Blame the oil speculators that ran the price of oil up to $147. If they didn't do that then OPEC would be thrilled at $40 a barrel oil.
Goldman Sachs gave the world $147 oil and now we have to pay the price. For 3 years Russia got to live large on mega profit made from fake data.
The prblem is once you give something to someone it is very hard to take it away. The price of oil has nothing to do with how much it costs to take it out of the ground. It has everything to do with politics and hedge fund greed. The wealthy minority will do anything to secure even more wealth that they don't need. The game is being played to its conclusion before these wealthy magnates die. They are playing Monopoly for real and don't care about the peons who get wiped out.