Last night, during a talk at the 92nd Street Y in New York, I fielded questions from an overwhelming group of eager and confused investors, almost all of whom are bewildered, unhappy and fed up. They don't trust stocks and they think that the day-to-day nonsense that passes as a stock market is pure manipulation, that all of the wrong people are getting money from the government and that they wish somehow they could just get back to even so they can get out of this game.
I think they are right.
To me, when I see Occidental (NYSE: OXY) (Cramer's Take) up 5 on a nothing day, when I see Chevron (NYSE: CVX) (Cramer's Take) and Exxon (NYSE: XOM) (Cramer's Take) once again up huge amounts, when I see the market double in the last 40 minutes off obvious manipulation by products that serve only to manipulate, I totally agree with them. When I see the raids on the financials, or the insurers, when I see the shorts pressing JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) (Cramer's Take) down through aggressive shorting without upticks and ETFs, what am I supposed to think? When I see the consumer product stocks get slaughtered on news that isn't new -- Procter (NYSE: PG) (Cramer's Take) says business is tough? Well, hello, they have been saying it all along -- or steel stocks rally big on orders that aren't even here, as in Nucor (NYSE: NUE) (Cramer's Take), I say, "Forget it, the mechanism's not working."
So what did I do? I fell back on companies that pay good dividends in diversified areas, a BP (NYSE: BP) (Cramer's Take) for oil, a Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take) for banking, an Altria (NYSE: MO) (Cramer's Take) for consumer goods, a VF Corp. (NYSE: VFC) (Cramer's Take) for retail. Simple stories that are at or near the bottom of their range that because of the yield can stand their ground against the pressures of the hedge funds and the ETFs.
And I hope. I hope that at some point we return to a normal market where a commodity like oil doesn't double and then get cut by two-thirds, or where major banks and insurers don't teeter on the brink of insolvency and where the manipulation through ETFs and short-selling stops so that the people at the Y want to come back in instead of leave, which is all that they really want to do.
Unless you are out there day-to-day meeting people and talking to people -- and I literally talk to dozens of investors each day -- you don't realize that people are just giving up and going home. They see the stock market for what it is, some broken casino where stocks get tossed in 3-, 4- or 5-point increments for nothing, where companies can trade up or down 10% on whiffs and rumors, where the volatility has simply made equities no longer safe, at a time, unfortunately, where no alternative seems safe.
Somehow the stocks I offer, the good ones with the dividends and the intelligent managements that should be able to navigate things, don't placate people. I think thousands of them give up every day and just want to wait until the craziness is over.
Obviously in a market like this, where the swings are wild and the news is exaggerated in stocks instantly, there is tremendous opportunity.
But I just wanted to tell everyone who doesn't speak to as many investors as I do that the frustration and fatigue are off the charts and all people want to do is take their stock money and go home to some place that is safe.
And I can't blame them.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Altria, BP, Chevron, VF Corp., Procter & Gamble, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-11-2008 @ 9:21AM
Will said...
Are you kidding? I am a young guy with only about $15K in my IRA but, the volitility has been a blessing for me. My Roth IRA was under $5K in October and has tripled since to the point where I am currently up about 10% for the year, of course this could change come tommorrow. (Mostly trading in and out of the energy sector and some of the exchanges like ICE.) Being a little guy has its advantages, like the government doesn't tax my activity in my Roth...
Wasn't one of your big points from the first book to be always in the game?
12-11-2008 @ 9:37AM
BHarrison said...
The truth and reality of it all is becoming more and more obvious to even the "common man", the MILLIONS of "little guy investors" who the market depends upon for their manipulated profits . . . the little people whose pockets are being picked by the BIG GUYS in the market.
The prudent average small investor is not going to return to the market until INTEGRITY is established in the market. Granted, the market has always been manipulated in this manner; but after the recent economic debacle bassed on the BLATANT FRAUDS commited by the FIs and the corporations. The "bottom line" is that "the people" have basically lost "faith and confidence" in the integrity of the market; and this will NOT be remedied easily or in the short run.
The stock market has become the equivalent to a used car lot with lots of "lemons" that are given a new paint job with inferior paint.
Financial "advisors" and economists have lost all credibility. Their "optimistic atttempts" to paint a better than realistic picture and forecasts has merely served to emphasize their lack of credibiity. It has become somewhat of a "catch-22" situation. The crux of the problems lies in the LACK OF INTEGRITY in the market as Cramer describes.
The question is whether, in the real world, the government and the regulators can realistically actually instill integrity in the market . . . that may be a "pipe dream". That is the delimina that we are confronted with.
CONGRESS is the main culprit in this entire economic debacle. To accommodate the speical interests, Congress failed to implement the basic prudent reasonable "oversight and regulation of FIs and the markets via the Fed, the SEC, etc. Basically, CONGRESS ENABLED the FIs and the corporations to orchestrate, and to perpetuate the pyramid and Ponzi FRAUD schemes.
If Congress had required (visa the Fed) that all mortgage loan applicants had to be fully pre-qualified for the mortgages, then NONE of these economic problems would have occurred. For too long the SEC has allowed the blatant manipulation of the markets also.
The "solution" is simply to provide and to ensure INTEGRITY in our business enterprises. The question is whether this is achievable or not.
12-11-2008 @ 10:31AM
Al Marcy said...
When this winter's fires die out, there will be another spring, but, many will not live that long. It was a great party. Nobody can stay on Sugar Mountain, no matter who makes your suits.
12-11-2008 @ 10:41AM
GUSIPPE said...
I will bet him and BOY GEORGE feel my losses to in their POCKETS TOO I LOST THREE QUARTES OF MY RETIREMENT NOW TO THE GREEDY S___ B___
12-11-2008 @ 10:43AM
nick said...
The market is driving the little guy away because were tired of MSNBC thugs putting crap out their every day, if you had the balls you would admit your loving having the little guy in their with the 401k's because you know they can't be involved with inside information. Do you get my drift?
12-11-2008 @ 11:21AM
nick said...
Crammer it looks like you and your butt hole boss, the CEO of GE backed the wrong horse, you got a Spiro Agnew here with Obama. It's going to be interesting how you at NBC spin this one. You always love jumping on the other side.
12-11-2008 @ 11:25AM
BHarrison said...
Well, now that the bubbles have burst, most of the little investors have finally realized that they are merely cannon fodder for the big guys manipulation of the market for their exorbitant profits, salaries, bonuses, etc.
The small investors have been fleeced to the point that they really don't have any more "descretionary investment funds"; they are down to the bone in just trying to survive, and to prepared, as best they can, for the spiraling economic disaster that is unfolding.
The government, in conjunction with the special interests keep coming up with nice appearing "programs" to fuel the markets . . . the 401Ks, etc. . . . and Bush even tried to get people to invest part of their Social Security money into the market. (That ploy was so obvious and stank so bad, even Congress did not pass the proposed legislation.)
The peoples' investments in 401Ks, etc. are via "funds" that are controlled by insiders and the small investors, for the most part, have no idea as to where their monies are being invested.
Perhaps the "average small investor" is finally realizing that all of the government programs and legistlation is geared to served the elitists corporate and ultra-wealthy special interests groups. The small investors are the minnows for the big fish to feed on.
Now the problem is that they have eaten too many of the "minnows" . . . and those that are left are being pursued by too many of the hungry BIG FISH. The economic "food chain" has been substantially depleted.
None of this economic disaster would have occurred if Congress had simply required 1) That all mortgage apllicants had to be fully pre-qualified for the mortgages that they applied for, 2) the implementation of basic, reasonable "oversight and regulation" be provided by the Fed, the SEC, etc.
CONGRESS is the MAIN CULPRIT in this economic disaster . . . and we still have the SAME SORRUPT POLITICIANS heading up the "recovery efforts". And these leopards are not capable of changing their spots.
12-11-2008 @ 12:33PM
tk said...
Creamer complains of manipulations by the Wall Street animals. Funny. He is one of them-more or less working for GoldmanSachs as their mouthpiece.
12-11-2008 @ 12:44PM
beachpaul said...
It's all digital, kibbles and bytes. The internet should have allowed me to buy directly, no middlemen, from the manufacturer. That means music, autos, copper tubing, whatever I want. Instead, the same old idiots tried to obstruct everything in a feeble attempt to maintain an income stream. Jobs grabbed the distribution channel for music. He who controls distribution controls the price. I learned that three decades ago. God bless him. Many of these companies did it to themselves. The newspapers are going under because they can't deliver information in real time. Same with the financials. They are irrelevant. 401K? What happened to a portfolio? One you built yourself! You got mutually defunded by sharks now you whine? You walk into a snake pit then complain you got bit? The market is doing what it always does. It goes up, then it goes down, then it goes up, then it.....
12-11-2008 @ 1:18PM
leonard tully said...
why not let the big three file for bankruptcy? there they can restructure the debt that they owe. and come back to profitabiltity, later on down the road. and the american public will not have another tax burden on their hands.
12-11-2008 @ 2:16PM
Steve said...
For some reason , I trust Cramer . I have watched him off and on for a few years now and in my opinion he knows what he is talking about . I don't beleive he is working for any special interest groups . I could be wrong ,money has a way of influencing even the best people . Anyhow, I have been convinced for a few years now that there are TOO many people buying and selling stocks . When I first saw "day traders" about 12 years ago sitting in front of a monitor ,with up to the minute info , buying and selling trying to make a fast buck, I knew the markets would be in trouble. It is TOO easy and can be accomplished almost instantaneously that it does ,as Cramer noted , pretty much abolish the ability to buy and hold stocks . Sure, you can do it ,but there are too many people buying and selling the same stocks trying to "cash in " for the " fast buck" . Now, did anyone REALLY think it is wise for EVERYBODY to invest their RETIREMENT money in the stock market ? I don't care HOW diversified you are with your mutual funds and your fancy "dollar cost averaging " . The problem comes in WHEN IT IS TIME TO WITHDRAW THE MONEY . There will be MILLIONS of people withdrawing at the same time . We all know what happens to stock prices when you have more sellers than buyers . My advice : Get out of debt , stay out of debt. Save your money somewhere safe. A bank or in real estate/ rental properties that you OWN . Rentals will give you an "income stream " and the amount you recieve will be a greater return than you would from anything else .
12-12-2008 @ 4:59AM
Ward said...
I had a feeling this was coming when I was underwriting mortgages and telling folks that they were trying to buy to much house...Their answer.."I have a guy that can do it if you don't want to!" I left the biz about 3 years ago before it got real crazy.
I had a feeling this was coming when every other info add show was a way to get rich trading stocks or forex or options.
I had a feeling this was coming when guys making 8 bucks an hour were giving me tips on stocks.
I have a family trust that I thought was going to be 80% bonds but as interest rates when down they move to 50/50 bonds and stocks...guess what happened--big loss of income. Not fun at sixty...know any good lawyers?
Good thing BUSH did not get the soc sec put in the market. Speaking of BUSH it is amazing how oil went from 140 to 50 after "O" was elected.
What happened to free market with interest rates...these BS low rates set by the fed was the beginning of all of this.
Let rates float like they should and half of the stupid home sales would never have been made. People would also save if they earned anything safely but everyone wanted to be rich in the market.
Jim I like your show and I am looking to go to good Dividend Stocks if I can knock some sense into my trust manager. Jim, I would love to find someone like you to look at the audited trust statement to see what these knuckle heads did. What the hell, back to the help wanted adds....
12-11-2008 @ 8:33PM
beachpaul said...
You are exactly right, Steve. Nothing is worth anything until you buy it or sell it. Stocks paying dividends, if you hold them for a long period of time, are a pretty safe investment. So is rental real estate. You can't help but make money. Will you get rich quick? No. If you are the owner of a pre CBS Fender Strat, you own a pound of gold, easily. Put an add in Billboard and take offers. If you had a first edition of To Kill a Mocking Bird, in good shape, and walked up to the door of the woman who wrote it, yes, she is still alive and living in the same house down south, hand her a pen and ask her to sign it, you could then sell that book for enough money to put your kid through two years of a state college. But it isn't easy money. Not like, programing in a buy price for GLW when it hits $8, like I did at the beginning of this century, and programing in a sell price when it hits $9.60 and doing it three times. It's hitting $8 again, but it may not be so easy this time. But, then....
12-16-2008 @ 11:11AM
David said...
To all of you that are complaining about losing money in the "market". The price of stocks is no different than the price of houses. As long as another idiot is willing to come along and pay more for the asset, the value will keep going up. Hello? Wall Street has been hyping the same crap for years. Stock valuation models were designed to encourage people to buy stocks. Hello? You all have been duped by Wall Street. Instead of sitting there complaining, put your money where it is safe and do not wait for the next 20% decline in the market. It's comiing, no matter what the talking heads tell you. The manipulators will always win the investment game. Just like a casino.
1-31-2009 @ 3:33PM
ARCHITS said...
Hi
I would like to buy an index fund which is no more,or less, than the Dow. Seeminly simple, but I can't find it. Any help would be appreciatiated.
Thanks