Foreclosures to rise 125% by 2010; jobless claims at 26-year high


The deflation drumbeat continues. As prices drop, businesses produce less and they cut the people doing the producing. With the exception of stocks and oil, it seems that nowhere are prices falling faster than in houses -- slashing $10 trillion in consumer wealth. And the spike in foreclosures adds more supply to the market for houses, just as demand keeps falling.

The foreclosure forecasts and initial unemployment claims figures released today are indeed sobering. The spike in foreclosures is expected to come from Pay Option mortgages, which let borrowers pay less than they owe each month and add that amount into the principal. But the Pay Option resets the rate upward when the new principal rises above 110% of the original amount.

Thanks in part to a 63% -- or $1,053 -- monthly increase in the current $1,672 average payment, foreclosures are expected to rise 125% to 3.6 million by 2010 over the three million that have occurred since 2006. Meanwhile, initial applications for jobless benefits rose to 573,000 in the week ending December 6 -- 9% more than the expected 525,000 -- from 515,000 the week before.

If this is what an Ownership Society is all about, maybe it's time to forget about Ownership and create an Affordership Society where people live within their means instead of borrowing to buy things they can't really afford.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

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