I have been posting so much bad news over the last couple of years that I thought it would be interesting to try something different for a change: look for something that's truly good. If I can find it, I'll tell you what the good news is, why it's important, and what it means for the rest of the world.
Charles Schwab, Chair of Charles Schwab Corp. (NASDAQ: SCHW) sees a bright future for stocks. He pins the blame for the current mess on a 2004 SEC ruling coupled with Alan Greenspan's lax attitude towards mortgage abuses. And he has some great career advice: do what you love.
The one down note in his interview in Fortune with Geoff Colvin, author of Talent is Overrated, is that Schwab claims his firm is in "great shape." But a look at the numbers tell a different story. Its stock is down 28% this year and it burned through $1.9 billion in cash through operations and investing in the quarter ending September 2008 (although it made a $304 million profit on $1.25 billion sales). Schwab is in relatively great shape but it is not without its challenges.
Schwab blames the crisis on two things: the April 2004 SEC decision to permit investment-banking firms with over $5 billion in capital to borrow as much as they wanted -- an opportunity they grabbed to borrow $30 for each $1 of capital. And he believes Greenspan fueled the disaster by ignoring all the "mortgages at a teaser rate, 2%, no tax returns required, no down payment required."
Why the happy face? He believes that market will derive comfort from Obama's plan to help the economy -- believing it will include a $1 trillion to $2 trillion stimulus plan. He thinks that the Dow or the S&P 500 could bounce back 40% or 50% within three or four months -- particularly if Obama takes Schwab's advice to cut taxes to 95% of the people and not raise them on the other 5%.
His career advice for his grandchildren is priceless: "have passion about whatever it is, go for it, and make contributions."
If Schwab is right about his prediction for a market pop, it sounds like it would be good to be invested in stocks before Obama takes office. And I have no doubt that his company would benefit greatly from that.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College. His eighth book, You Can't Order Change: Lessons From Jim McNerney's Turnaround at Boeing, will be published by Portfolio on December 26, 2008. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-12-2008 @ 9:45PM
ynot said...
I think he is f-ing nuts!!!