P&G still a core holding even with top-line challenges

The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) is a blue-chip Dow component, but that doesn't mean it can't have a challenging quarter or two (or three or four or five, depending on how bad the recession gets).

According to this article, P&G believes its top-line sales revenue won't be as good as previously expected. This is due, in part, to how the dollar has been trading as of late against foreign currencies. However, fear not, shareholders, because earnings per share should be fine and remain the same. Management believes that Q2 will see somewhere between $1.58 and $1.63 per share, and it is looking for the fiscal year to fall between $4.28 and $4.38 per share.

The question is, will management turn out to be correct? If the recession continues to worsen, can this guidance be trusted? Quite honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if estimates were trimmed later on. P&G will see intense competition from generic brands, you can bet on that. But I can't say that P&G shareholders should care that much. After all, P&G, like Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kraft Foods, Inc. (NYSE: KFT), and PepsiCo, Inc. (NYSE: PEP), is a consumer-products business that has a strong footprint on the supermarket shelves. It pays a solid dividend, and it's a great core holding suitable for dollar-cost-averaging. This is why one holds a P&G: to take advantage of the times when the stock may be down because of challenging times. You improve your cost basis, and go for a high effective dividend yield over time.

If you're trading P&G, you may want to be careful. For those not trading, I think P&G can still be counted on as being a relatively safe entity to hold. The company is a great generator of cash flow, and you can rest assured that management will be watching its costs and expenses carefully. Sometimes that's not enough, especially in these times of uncertainty, but patient players should remain just that... patient.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.