Cramer on BloggingStocks: Madoff fallout won't be felt till next year


TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says he's having trouble finding where new money for the market will come from.

All weekend, I -- like others who follow the markets -- tried to figure out how Bernie Madoff may have lost $50 billion, not the $17 billion he started the year with, given that, by nature, you can't leverage a Ponzi scheme. You can't borrow 9-to-1, as a hedge fund might have, because you have to keep sending money out and because he apparently was captive to himself.

It is possible, of course, that he sent out so many fraudulent statements showing much more unrealized profit in his fund than his fund had assets, but that would seem to be the only way it could happen, unless he got so much in this year and lost it all before the end of the year.

So many questions remain unanswered. Did he ever make money? What did he do with the money? Was every monthly report simply backdated and too impenetrable to raise questions? When did he start the scheme? Why did he have to start the scheme?


And perhaps the most important question for now: Why does none of it matter? I thought for sure it would matter on Friday, but Friday was a nice day because of the auto bailout from Treasury. I thought it would matter this morning because of the incredible foreign bank exposure -- and did they ever do anything right, those foreign banks? But Europe's very strong.

Yes, the biggest mystery remains how this $50 billion scam hasn't affected anything at all. It's akin to how the gating of Citadel after horrendous losses really doesn't mean anything.

What's the real impact of all of this, besides being, somehow, bullish for the markets, as everyone is excited that the markets are shrugging things off?

I think it has to do with new money. How much new money can we expect to come into this market? How much do we expect would have come in if it weren't for these scandals? Take the European money. Much of it looks like it came in during the last year. Why did it come in at all? Who had new money at the beginning of 2008 to give?

Maybe next year will be the year where it finally happens -- we run out of new money from the sidelines that comes to the stock market.

Any market needs new money to propel itself higher. Markets don't just jump up because sellers are done. This market has not had a new IPO of any significance in months, but the banks have flooded the joint with deals and the buybacks have slowed to a minimum.

I think the Madoff misery and the Citadel-like freezings won't cause much more damage to the markets. They are being discounted now.

I think the scandal and the hedge fund debacle is just part of the withdrawal of money that will make next year another stuck-in-the-mud year for equities unless somehow new wealth is created somewhere. And I cannot see where that will be.

Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO.

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