All weekend, I -- like others who follow the markets -- tried to figure out how Bernie Madoff may have lost $50 billion, not the $17 billion he started the year with, given that, by nature, you can't leverage a Ponzi scheme. You can't borrow 9-to-1, as a hedge fund might have, because you have to keep sending money out and because he apparently was captive to himself.
It is possible, of course, that he sent out so many fraudulent statements showing much more unrealized profit in his fund than his fund had assets, but that would seem to be the only way it could happen, unless he got so much in this year and lost it all before the end of the year.
So many questions remain unanswered. Did he ever make money? What did he do with the money? Was every monthly report simply backdated and too impenetrable to raise questions? When did he start the scheme? Why did he have to start the scheme?
And perhaps the most important question for now: Why does none of it matter? I thought for sure it would matter on Friday, but Friday was a nice day because of the auto bailout from Treasury. I thought it would matter this morning because of the incredible foreign bank exposure -- and did they ever do anything right, those foreign banks? But Europe's very strong.
Yes, the biggest mystery remains how this $50 billion scam hasn't affected anything at all. It's akin to how the gating of Citadel after horrendous losses really doesn't mean anything.
What's the real impact of all of this, besides being, somehow, bullish for the markets, as everyone is excited that the markets are shrugging things off?
I think it has to do with new money. How much new money can we expect to come into this market? How much do we expect would have come in if it weren't for these scandals? Take the European money. Much of it looks like it came in during the last year. Why did it come in at all? Who had new money at the beginning of 2008 to give?
Maybe next year will be the year where it finally happens -- we run out of new money from the sidelines that comes to the stock market.
Any market needs new money to propel itself higher. Markets don't just jump up because sellers are done. This market has not had a new IPO of any significance in months, but the banks have flooded the joint with deals and the buybacks have slowed to a minimum.
I think the Madoff misery and the Citadel-like freezings won't cause much more damage to the markets. They are being discounted now.
I think the scandal and the hedge fund debacle is just part of the withdrawal of money that will make next year another stuck-in-the-mud year for equities unless somehow new wealth is created somewhere. And I cannot see where that will be.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-15-2008 @ 11:16AM
beachpaul said...
Mr. Made Off with the money had no effect on the market because he robbed his own bank. The money he lost was concentrated among wealthy friends and certain institutional clients tied to them. Maybe they can get in line for a bailout. Fools and money...gives young, ambitious, poor boys everywhere, " the audacity of hope."
12-15-2008 @ 11:34AM
Beltway Greg said...
Beach Paul, get over it. Bush lost and screwed the country in the process. Why don't you check out his dealings in the oil industry with Spectrum 7 I believe. The title of his upcoming book?
The Audacity of a Dope.
Beltway Greg
12-15-2008 @ 12:05PM
Stu said...
I've never taken a business course in my life so I may be wayyy off base, but I think the Madoff case is going to bring the Hedge Fund issues to a head. Either by regulation, or just exposing the risk of investing in something casual investors don't understand. Hedge Funds could end up taking on a synonymous sound of S&L.
As far as New Money, there's a lot to be diverted from Hedge Funds. The market gets plenty of 'slow-dumb' money from 401(k), retirement plans that Hedgers and some of the weird convoluted contracts/ options they buy take advantage of. If the SEC, which is coming under scrutiny for Madoff, is pressured to correct the marketplace for slow-dumb money (which they should) it would yield a healthy correction.
When you refer to 'New Money' you seem to be asking about new markets. There are several markets emerging with limited promise. If I was giving 'The Graduate' advice today I'd tell him, 'Fuel Cells.' But there are probably 8 or so things looking for some growth.
Again, I know nothing. I'm only invested as part of the slow and dumb money.
12-17-2008 @ 10:06AM
Pamela Stanfield said...
This just isn't happening on Wall Street. I've been working for Corporate America, Mr. & Ms. Greed for over thirty five years, mostly in sales. They trained me to LIE, CHEAT and STEAL with a BIG FAT SMILE on MY FACE and they are doing it right now as I type this comment. WHY? Because we are letting them get away with corrupting our country and putting many of us in financial ruin.
12-15-2008 @ 12:50PM
lou said...
Pamela: No offense to you, but why did you "LIE, CHEAT and STEAL with a BIG FAT SMILE on MY FACE" ? We are responsible for our own actions. Corporate America cannot force any of us to be deceitful unless we choose to be so. Money is the root of all evil. That is one of the most truthful statements ever made. I cannot believe how materialistic we all became over the last few decades, including myself. I don't need their high priced homes and trash. Time to get back to basics. What does a person need with millions of dollars? I am not trying to be pompous, just realistic. I hope we have all learned from this.
12-15-2008 @ 12:55PM
Iridium said...
Thre are quite a few major corporations that are just inventory trading schemes. They build new stores and transfer unsold inventory from other stores to the new one. The record this transfer as a sale.
Now that building hundreds of new stores every year is far from a reality the schemes are catching up with them. They can't generate the fake sales.
12-15-2008 @ 1:52PM
Stu said...
Pamela,
What can be done to stop them?
Are you willing to pull your money out with the market this deflated?
The only leverage we could possibly have is to pursue legislation that makes it mandatory for companies to offer an alternative to the marketplace for 401(k) matching until then the 'slow-dumb' money has no choice but to go there and be lucrative to scams.
How do you propose making the market honest?
(I didn't see a reply button to attach this to your comment.)
12-15-2008 @ 6:12PM
Bill said...
I wonder if Mr. Madoff or his accountant used to commute from Northern New Jersey on the old Red and Tan Lines in their formative financial years. The Ponzi concept has its lustre. It's just that financial dealings have gotten bigger over time. Now the sum total of the bit players' losses could give Warren or Bill a run for their assets. Such a lamentable but predictable outcome.
12-15-2008 @ 6:12PM
beachpaul said...
Pamela, the film business is the sidewalk of all business. As a friend in Hollywood once said; "Thank God for the music business..'cause it's the curb." In the music biz " lie, cheat, steal, and bribe" is built into the contract you get the bands to sign. It is in the finer print, different words, but "same difference". You can't just smile, you have to do a little tap dancing, too. Business ethics like military intelligence, is an oxymoron. Make the sale, sign the contract, get the money, check your ego at your desk , and go home. You walk the line, just try not to get caught when you occasionally cross it and give something back when you can.
12-16-2008 @ 9:13AM
williambanzai7 said...
PALM BEACH GOT RUN OVER BY MADOFF'S PONZI REINDEER
(Grandma Got Run Over By a Reindeer)
WilliamBanzai7
(chorus)
Palm Beach got run over by Bernie Madoff's Ponzi reindeer
Just two weeks before Christmas Eve
You can say there's no such thing as a Wall Street scamster
But as for we in America, we believe
He'd been chalking up bogus Alpha
So the SEC said he had to go
And as he waltzed out of his lair on Third Avenue
Defiant as he was, he said, "Positive returns, hell no!"
When they woke up yesterday morning
It was clear the Palm Beach clique had been attacked
May as well stick a note to their own foreheads
Saying, "Oh Lord, please give us our money back!!"
(repeat chorus)
Now we're all so proud of our regulators
They've been taking this so well
See them crammed in Madoff's office
Knowing that SEC Chairman Cox will soon be sent to pink slip h-e-l-l
It won't be a Merry Christmas thanks to Madoff
Nor a Happy Hannukah as well
And we just can't help but wonder
Dosn't all of Wall Street have that pungent Ponzi smell?
(repeat chorus)
Now that Madoff's books are on the table
See all the other asset managers dance a jig (Ah!)
And the bogus billion dollar earnings
That not surprisingly had been rigged!
Be forewarned all you rich country club investors
Better watch out for yourselves!
You should not be dreaming of serial Alpha
With hedge fund goofs who play golf better than yourselves!
(repeat chorus)
12-18-2008 @ 8:34AM
Dr. Maxx Dredmon said...
Madoff was a key player and widely respected. His indescretions may do little to the markets now because the losses are contained to the few. Hedge funds were great for those that could afford the entry fee, and we may see some better regulation on that end, or the investors will run to safer bond territory running scared, and kill it off bit by bit. The question here is, Is Madoff just the one who got caught? Whos next?
Dont guys disappear to exotic foreign lands anymore like Ken Lay did? Anyway, the banks are trying to consolodate the wealth, and wall street wants to keep what it has to prevent smaller investors from flodding the market and diluting the stocks. The fewer on top the better has always been the rule of the big ponzi artists, and let the little guys fuel the profits,..but not too many, they might speak up. Stocks based on inflated mortgages securities must come down and stay down. It never was. They were based on phony inflated home values with exotic loans ticking away. Those values will not come back, at least not until the natural flow of the market raises them over another 7 to 9 year cycle. Read the newspapers and go back 50 years to see the cycles. Fun and educational for investors!
1-07-2009 @ 9:45PM
falsehood said...
This is what happens when you remove and deregulate Market rules,Banking, Accounting and Loan Protocols. This has been going on for a long time. What bothers me the most is that our lobbyist Corperate controled Congress and Senate did nothing. We have been sold out. Hedge funds have no regulations or over site. WHY? A hedge fund operator just has too create a rumor on a stock or company, too create a lose so they can bet on that lose. That is called stacking and manipulating the deck. The market as it stands today, is so unregulated and unprotected for any investment at this time. It has become a slot machine to steal investments of any kind. There are people that need to go too jail. Look at the sub-prime and mortgage industry is not even regulated. They need to go to jail. Follow the money, manipulation of property values, unregulated speculators. You are all like sheep lead to the slaughter of your freedom.