Roubini said if General Motors or Chrysler are forced into bankruptcy without a U.S. government rescue, the U.S. recession will extend well into 2010, Bloomberg News reported
"The economic ramifications of an outright bankruptcy would be severe," Roubini told Bloomberg News, adding that the already-weak U.S. fundamentals mean that a recovery of growth will not occur until 2010.
General Motor's (NYSE: GM) shares rose 15 cents to $3.81 on Monday at mid-day; Chrysler is privately held. Ford's (NYSE: F) shares rose 13 cents to $3.17.
Economist David H. Wang agreed with Roubini's assessment. "A GM bankruptcy would create a ripple-effect. The steel, aluminum, textile, auto parts supplier, and support sectors would be immediately impacted, resulting in large lay-offs within weeks. The credit market also would be effected, and obviously the stock market would not have a pleasant time," Wang said. "Chrysler would fold, Ford would also be hurt on a deterioration of sector confidence, and the industrial sector would experience its biggest decline in generations."
In sum, Wang said "the costs of the auto sector failure far exceed the costs of the rescue." That fact, combined with the auto sector's productive potential and assets "justifies the first infusion of $15 billion, starting with a U.S. Treasury bridge loan using TARP funds."
The bridge loan will give the incoming Obama Administration time to work on and implement "an auto sector transformation policy," one that discards auto production methods that aren't working, and replaces them with leaner, more-nimble operations aimed at building the energy-saving, innovative cars of tomorrow, he said.
Auto Sector / Economic Analysis: The United States, via the Fed, quickly found $300 billion in guarantees for Citigroup (NYSE: C), because it was too big to fail. Likewise, the nation can find $15 billion for the Big Three, as they are too big to fail - - and the economy is too weak to withstand a failure - - from an industrial standpoint.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 4)
12-15-2008 @ 2:20PM
BHarrison said...
Surely he jests about this? The year 2010 would be an unbelievable opptimistic perspective, wouldn't it?
WE will be lucky if this whole thing bottoms out by 2010 . . . there is a lag time involved with all of those falling dominos (business bankruptcies) and then unemplyment problems. 2010 sounds to be unrealistically "optimistic". Nothing happens "overnight" in economic recoveries . . . that is a slow drawn out process, especially when we are looking at a two year EXCESS INVENTORY of housing.
12-15-2008 @ 7:25PM
gusippe said...
How much does thi GEM get PAIG to bull shit
12-16-2008 @ 8:44AM
William said...
There will be no bankruptcies at the Detroit big three, in the end Chrysler will be owned by G M.
The 2 companies will be streamlined down to a lean machine under a new presidency. The union will make concessions where needed, in the end GM will be the world leader in automotive production well ahead of Toyota, and its stock will be in the 50 dollar range or higher.
You just have to ask yourself, do you feel lucky ?
12-15-2008 @ 8:16PM
nolobeach said...
CNBC is reporting that if the auto industry falters there could be a staggering 2.5 to 3.5 million American jobs lost. Now, you may not care much for American automakers, but that type of massive layoff would be felt even by you. The economic damage would be catastrophic. Everyone! Every single one of us should always be prepared for a layoff. CASH! Piles of cold hard cash is the best way to weather the current economic situation. I discovered one of the best books you'll ever find about finance, "How to Become Filthy Rich on Your Current Income" at www.how-to-become-rich.com. If people read books like this one we would not have the current situation we do.
12-15-2008 @ 8:44PM
tom said...
The foreclosures might not bottom out until after 2010. We must understand this is a big mess this country is in right now.
12-15-2008 @ 9:07PM
John Huckleberry said...
Finally someone tells it like it is. No political BS. Bush get off the can and do something finally.
12-15-2008 @ 9:08PM
mike said...
recession till 2010, who cares im not participating in it, im doing just fine and it will take more than them going bankrupt to harm my lifestyle, let them go bankrupt, who cares
12-15-2008 @ 9:26PM
Tony said...
The are 10,000 economists in this country. It is common sense that at any one given point a few will be correct in their prognostications. That the recession may last into the year 2010 is like forecasting snow in Buffalo during the winter.
12-15-2008 @ 9:29PM
charles harris said...
Who Owns the New York Federal Reserve Bank? Each of the twelve Federal Reserve Banks is organized as a corporation in much the same way as many other firms. However, Gary Kah in 1991 claimed foreigners intent on global economic and political domination own a controlling interest in the shares of the New York Federal Reserve Bank. âÂÂSwiss and Saudi Arabian contacts,â according to Kah (p. 13), identified the top eight shareholders as Rothschild Banks of London and Berlin, Lazard Brothers Banks of Paris, Israel Moses Seif Banks of Italy, Warburg Bank of Hamburg and Amsterdam, Lehman Brothers of New York, Kuhn, Loeb Bank of New York, Chase Manhatten Bank, Goldman, Sachs of New York
12-15-2008 @ 9:40PM
user said...
I do not think that america realizes what a mess they created for the whole world.
All i see is the worry for there own behind
that they brought the whole world into a bad situation nobody seems to care. NO wonder the world hates you, it is self explanatory and you sadly created your own downfall.
12-15-2008 @ 9:44PM
werser said...
Most of you who are bashing the auto industrie and are waiting for it to fail are the dumbest people i have ever seen.
DON'T you realize what you are talking about 2-3 mill jobs and it will effect ALL OF YOU if you like it or not. The bust of Wall Street is the same story YOU ALL be hurt regardless if you had money in the street or not.
LOW IQ AMERICA
12-15-2008 @ 9:51PM
ED said...
Dear Autoworker's Union UAW,
Your days are over. You cant pick one of the big three and strike. You deny that you pulled these companies under and still wont make any sacrifices to keep them opem. Goodby 12 week vacations, 80-90% pay without working. Lets see who really is American now.
12-15-2008 @ 9:56PM
pete said...
First OF ALL you have big mortgage resets in 2 years housing will take 5 more years to clean up all the inventory . housing will go up in 2018 its a disaster now . Gm will fail no matter what they do unless the union is busted . GM IS A BIG MONSTER losing billions its out of control and will never ever be saved . We are in a depresion now but the government wont tell you that they want everything to look good but its not ! They are playing games with the stock market trying everything on earth to keep it over 8000 . I see a big bust coming soon we may go to the 6000 range or lower in the next quarter or 2 .
12-15-2008 @ 10:09PM
carlton said...
I'am like many others, we are sick and tired of the lies from washington. We can't trust anyone. We have been lead down the road of no return, with lies, coverups, corruption, deception from Wallstreet, Congress and the White House. Enough is enough!
12-15-2008 @ 10:02PM
Dean Webb said...
Does this make sense? Regardless of the big three going BK or not, the UAW wages, pensions and benefits are going to be slashed to lower operating costs. Combined with production cutbacks, UAW members and suppliers are going to end up with with either dramatically lower wages and benefits or no wages. It seems to me that the economy is going to take a big hit from this no matter how it plays out.
12-15-2008 @ 10:19PM
John Huckleberry said...
I'm tired of all the belly aching moaning I read on messages. You all are pathetic. Helping kill off one of the few American owned and operated industries left in America. STFU already before everything in America is owned by Japan and China. Save America, fund the AMERICAN auto industry. Let's all send Bush and Republicans shoes for their great economy!
12-15-2008 @ 10:38PM
notsosmart said...
Gloom and doom...replace Washington and thier left wing friends.
12-15-2008 @ 10:38PM
kim said...
WHAT YOUR NOT MENTIONING IS THAT AMERICANS AREN'T GOING TO BUY THOSE GAS GUZZLERS ANYMORE. SO WHY BAIL THEM OUT. GOOD MONEY AFTER BAD.... NO BAIL OUT !!!!
12-15-2008 @ 11:31PM
Gene Ammirata said...
BUY UNION...BUY AMERICAN !!
12-15-2008 @ 11:56PM
realdeal said...
LONG LIVE THE FORD