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NYU's 'Dr. Doom' Roubini: GM, Chrysler bankruptcies would extend recession well into 2010

Nouriel Roubini, the once obscure New York University economics professor who two years ago predicted the current global financial crisis and recession, said a bankruptcy filing by two of the Big Three automakers would deepen and lengthen the U.S. recession.

Roubini said if General Motors or Chrysler are forced into bankruptcy without a U.S. government rescue, the U.S. recession will extend well into 2010, Bloomberg News reported

"The economic ramifications of an outright bankruptcy would be severe," Roubini told Bloomberg News, adding that the already-weak U.S. fundamentals mean that a recovery of growth will not occur until 2010.

General Motor's (NYSE: GM) shares rose 15 cents to $3.81 on Monday at mid-day; Chrysler is privately held. Ford's (NYSE: F) shares rose 13 cents to $3.17.

Economist David H. Wang agreed with Roubini's assessment. "A GM bankruptcy would create a ripple-effect. The steel, aluminum, textile, auto parts supplier, and support sectors would be immediately impacted, resulting in large lay-offs within weeks. The credit market also would be effected, and obviously the stock market would not have a pleasant time," Wang said. "Chrysler would fold, Ford would also be hurt on a deterioration of sector confidence, and the industrial sector would experience its biggest decline in generations."


In sum, Wang said "the costs of the auto sector failure far exceed the costs of the rescue." That fact, combined with the auto sector's productive potential and assets "justifies the first infusion of $15 billion, starting with a U.S. Treasury bridge loan using TARP funds."

The bridge loan will give the incoming Obama Administration time to work on and implement "an auto sector transformation policy," one that discards auto production methods that aren't working, and replaces them with leaner, more-nimble operations aimed at building the energy-saving, innovative cars of tomorrow, he said.

Auto Sector / Economic Analysis: The United States, via the Fed, quickly found $300 billion in guarantees for Citigroup (NYSE: C), because it was too big to fail. Likewise, the nation can find $15 billion for the Big Three, as they are too big to fail - - and the economy is too weak to withstand a failure - - from an industrial standpoint.
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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 12:20 PM

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