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Ray of light: This way to the recovery -- solar power, solar jobs

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The U.S. housing sector remains in deep recession. Consumer spending is down. Business investment remains lackluster, with industrial production indicators hitting new lows monthly. And lay-offs have hit alarming levels.

Against this backdrop it's understandable if one holds a not-so-optimistic view regarding the U.S. economy and the markets for early 2009: the economy's fundamentals are weak, and it's going to take a lot of stimulus, fiscal and otherwise, to turn them around.

Nevertheless, there are bright spots -- in this case literally, as well as macroeconomically -- regarding the U.S. economy of tomorrow.

This way to the future

One small, but significant data point: despite the plunge in oil prices to around $50 per barrel, demand for solar energy and solar panels remains strong. Demand for solar energy systems increased 45% in 2007 and is expected to register another impressive gain in 2008, The New York Times reported.

About 25,000-35,000 workers -- installers, manufacturers, distributors, project developers, and material suppliers -- are currently directly employed in the solar energy sector, which is expected to grow to more than 110,000 in 2016, according to Solar Energy Institute Association data, The Times reported.

And here's an equally important stat: the jobs pay between $15-30 per hour, with many solar companies offering health benefits, The Times reported.


'Scale it up, and good things result'

Economist David H. Wang said those who view the 110,000-solar-job projection as small are missing the point: those totals don't assume any money from the Obama Administration's upcoming fiscal stimulus package or its energy bill/program, which will likely follow it.

"Assume continued technology progress in solar cells. Now multiply that by efforts to increase renewable energy sources in public schools and buildings. Now add an enhanced, but not an unreasonable, federal tax credit. Bingo. I think you can see that goods things will begin to happen from a domestic jobs and a GDP standpoint," Wang said. "If we add wind, auto sector transformation, and electric grid improvements to the equation, I think you can see that renewable energy has the ability to be a major source of good-paying, domestic jobs, for decades. Scale it up, and good things result."

Wang said a key factor will be the role energy efficiency plays in the Obama Administration's infrastructure and energy bills. For example, if the new administration gives school/public building energy efficiency a low priority, the seed-money effect on the solar industry will be less. If it is given a high priority, "it will create a surge of players in the field increasing research efforts," which will speed solar tech advances, further lowing solar costs, "which will really drive increased solar use and installation."

Energy Policy/Economic Analysis: In the very near future, your son or daughter may be a solar product designer, engineer, or solar product installer. Or perhaps you will become one yourself, with additional training in a career shift. Add wind energy, a revamped auto sector, mass transit expansion, and export sales of the above technologies -- some may become the envy of the world -- and one can begin to see the beginnings of the U.S. economic recovery and sustainable growth.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 10:59 PM

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