This is getting scary. With the latest bank earnings announcement, the total among of global bank write-downs have hit $1 trillion. At the same time, the dollar is plunging in value after a 20% rise in the last several months. How are these two related? I don't know what's in the minds of currency traders -- maybe they're taking profits today. But if the dollar keeps dropping, it could mean that the U.S. banking system is perceived as so weak that the rest of the world will look elsewhere for a safe haven.
How bad is the damage to the global financial system? Banks have written off $978 billion. More specifically, since the financial markets began to implode last year, U.S. banks have written off $678 billion since last year, while European banks and insurers have written down $300 billion. They've been able to raise almost that much in capital -- $928 billion to replenish capital, and cut 239,000 jobs.
Meanwhile, the dollar is reversing direction. After rising 20% in the wake of the last several months' financial implosion which caused investors around the world to scramble for a safe haven -- the dollar -- things are changing fast. The dollar declined the most against the euro since its 1999 debut and sank to a 13-year low versus the yen. Is this due to the Fed's announcement? I kind of doubt that a 0% Fed Funds rate was a surprise to traders -- that's because short-term bond yields have been negative over the last few weeks.
But one thing is pretty clear. If the dollar keeps plunging at this rate, it will probably mean a spike in oil prices -- since oil is traded in those weakening dollars. But there is also the chance that unless OPEC cuts output by very large amounts, the price will keep falling as the global economy slows down and demand plunges.
Also, if global investors lose confidence in the dollar, that could mean we will not be able to afford to borrow the additional trillions that will be needed to finance a big infrastructure program next year to boost the economy. We have been able to borrow so much in the last few months thanks to those negative interest rates for short-term bonds.
But if we need to pay higher interest rates on those to finance a stimulus program, those interest rates might make such a plan too expensive. That would be bad news for investors.
Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
12-17-2008 @ 3:56PM
BHarrison said...
A primary problem is that we are simply running out of consummers . . . people willing to spend . . . to fuel our economy. Everything will continue to worsen until this is changed; and people feel comfortable to spend money with the expectation of having a job and earning future incomes.
This situation isnot going to improve with all of the dire information that keeps arising . . . Congress MUST implment "oversight and regualtion" to instill INTEGRITY in the markets and the corporations. Prudent people are NOT going to invest in a chaotic, CORRUPT, risky, and manipulated market . . . that is NOT going to happen any time soon.
CONGRESS was the MAIN CULPRIT in the formation of these economic FRAUDS . . . these pyramid and Ponzi schemes. CONGRESS refused to provide the "oversight and regualtion" of the FIs and the corporations via the Fed, the SEC , etc. . . . and now we learn that the SEC has done virtually nothing for TEN LONG YEARS. This is totally unacceptable.
A full 2/3 or 3/4 of Congressmen should be "RECALLED" IMMEDIATELY.
12-17-2008 @ 4:05PM
Tony said...
It looks to me that our Gov't is simply throwing money at the problem, lowering interest rates to zero and is praying that things get better. There is not an orgaanized plan here. Do I have a better idea? Nope, I am clueless like everyone else. Good bless our stock market, when a company can lose 2.5 billion dollars in one quarter and their stock rises 17% is optimism beyond belief. Hang in there, we will know more by next summer.
12-17-2008 @ 4:09PM
Tony said...
BHARRISON: You are right. Deregulation lead to this mess. Being in banking at the time I remembered each time a layer of protection was lifted it was with the mantra "that less government is best", and this is what is best for Americans. On this point Reagan may have been wrong, less government is not alwasy best.
12-17-2008 @ 4:10PM
BHarrison said...
Ufortunately this article more or less "tells it like it is".
This may be the pivotal turning point in the history of the USA. The solution is to instill INTEGRITY in our businesses and in our government. If we don't, then the world may lose it's bastion of democracy and capitalism . . . and it may become a vastly different world than we have envisioned.
History reveals the demise of many nations . . . and the American people just don't believe and accept that could happen to the USA . . . but IT IS HAPPENING.
12-17-2008 @ 4:20PM
BHarrison said...
The government has a fiduciary responsiblity to maintain the integrity and stability of our national economy . . . they simply sold out to the special interests; and we all see the results of inadequate "oversight and regulations" to maintain the INTEGRITY . . . the "faith and confidence" in our economic structures and activities.
12-17-2008 @ 4:13PM
josie said...
time to regulate the credit card companies
12-17-2008 @ 4:15PM
Marichen said...
We are in a downward spiral, the dollar is plunging with the value of homes. Loss of income = loss of credit=possible foreclosure=no excellent credit=no qualifying for home=homeless, no health insurance=burden to the government.
12-17-2008 @ 4:28PM
Me said...
If you eliminate the corporate tax, corporate profits will increase, causing corporations to hire more workers If you eliminate the corporate tax, corporate profits will increase, causing corporations to hire more workers and/or raise wages and invest more in new and better equipment, and/or increase their dividend payouts. All this will cause the price of corporate stock to rise and the government to receive more in capital-gains tax revenues. The government will also receive more tax revenue from the increase in dividends paid and workers hired. If we look at the experience of other countries who have greatly reduced corporate tax rates, like Ireland, it is clear the additional growth in jobs and profits ended up providing the government more, not less, tax revenue. and/or raise wages and invest more in new and better equipment, and/or increase their dividend payouts. All this will cause the price of corporate stock to rise and the government to receive more in capital-gains tax revenues. The government will also receive more tax revenue from the increase in dividends paid and workers hired. If we look at the experience of other countries who have greatly reduced corporate tax rates, like Ireland, it is clear the additional growth in jobs and profits ended up providing the government more, not less, tax revenue. We also need to end the progressive income tax, which is part of the COMMUNIST MANIFESTO, along with a Central Bank (the fed), they are all scams on society and dishonest.
And for all you military and police people Hope you have the Brains to turn on the Politicians not the People, because if you protect the elite and politicians you are just screwing yourself.
We need a Tax revolution if this will not happen.
12-17-2008 @ 4:34PM
rpattersn said...
BHarrison, you hit the nail right on the head. Integrity is the key word here. Our government (more specifically, the sorry scoundrels in Washington that represent the American people) has lost all integrity and I fear that unless we can reinstill a sense of it, then consumer confidence may not recover for years. I think the first step should be to prosecute some of the Wall Street/banking thieves to send a message that this type of behavior will not be tolerated and, in fact, does have serious consequence. As it is right now, they're back to same old shenanigans and laughing up their collective sleeves at the American people. Then it's time to turn our gaze on the government itself. I think it was Jefferson who said that a "little" revolution once in a while is a good thing. I think that time has come.
12-17-2008 @ 5:16PM
John Hoover said...
The economy cannot be fixed by giving 0% interest loans to the same fools who got us in this mess. Bankers kept giving mortgages for patently unsustainably inflated real estate values. When everyone realized that the only people who were buying houses were other flippers and there was no market for people actually living in those McMansions the party was over. The flippers were by and large individuals who had enough assets to just walk away from bad investments. The banks holding the mortgages and the entities holding the toxic time bomb bundled subprime loans collapsed while those who had gotten out early enough put their cash into commdities. Consumers were having to choose between food, rent or gas to get to work. They had neither the cash or the credit to bail out the economy. The only way to fix the economy is to get the consumers back into good paying jobs so they can buy the goods and services that business sell.
12-17-2008 @ 5:19PM
bat said...
Ya think maybe one of the bush brothers had a hand in any of these bank deals as they have in the past...no more bush's..none
12-17-2008 @ 5:33PM
Bobcheesedoodle said...
Everybody is unhappy about the bailouts. How many times have you heard individuals respond to the bailout by saying, "bail me out, I want some free money." Everyone says it in jest, but the reality is, it might be a better plan than what they're doing. If the 700 billion translates into $10,000 per taxpayer (I don't know the exact number), perhaps we'd be better off sending everyone a check for $10,000. Old folks would save it because that's what they need. People with credit card debt would pay it down. And most people would spend it. No oversight would be required. The banks, auto industry, investment banks, and the other idiots who got us into this mess don't deserve to be rewarded. We're throwing good money after bad with them. If as a taxpayer it's going to cost me $10,000 for the bailout, I'm not going to complain as much if it's me getting the $10,000. I should be president.
12-17-2008 @ 5:34PM
tom said...
This is normal republican economics. Result of poor leadership in the white house the past 8 years.
12-17-2008 @ 5:40PM
Walter said...
The hell with it all.Take a week off work and enjoy the Christmas Holiday.
12-17-2008 @ 6:59PM
BRAD FRANCIS said...
ANCIENT GREECE, THE ROMAN EMPIRE. EGYPT, THE BRITISH EMPIRE,THE THIRD REICH, WHY DO AMERICANS REFUSE TO BELIVE THAT THEIR EMPIRE IS ABOVE THE REST IF THESE THAT HAVE FALLEN DUE TO THEIR OWN GREED AND CORRUPTION
12-17-2008 @ 7:16PM
BARD FRANCIS said...
8 YRS OF FAILED POLICY, NO OVERSIGHT IN MORTGAGE MARKETS, GREEDY BANKERS AND POLITICIANS SOUNDS LIKE HERBERT HOOVER AND OCT 29 1929 ALL OVER AGAIN THANK YOU GEORGE AND CREW GREAT JOB!!
12-17-2008 @ 7:13PM
Groger said...
The only way out of this mess is to cut our trade deficit with foreign countries by producing goods for export HERE that folks THERE want to buy. This can only be done if our goods are of high quality and are affordable to foreign customers. This country must return to it's manufacturing roots. Made in USA is the only way.
12-17-2008 @ 11:13PM
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12-17-2008 @ 7:51PM
Gary said...
I'm not sure the government, the agent of this mess, is the one to fix it. Let's face it, if I'm a banker and you tell me unless I loan to the "unloanable" you're going to mess with my business until it collapses, I'm going to listen (see some of Janet Reno's publically annuciated statements 1994-1996). If you then tell me, "but you can sell these loans to government entities, who will carry the risk", man, I'm loaning. Anyone, any amount, anywhere. I get my money. This pile of useless paper backs up and up as these bankers expand on the system creating derivatives so the system can apply to ANYBODY. Nope, no government involvement at all!!! No dictation of who gets loans, no regulation of rates, no Fed action. In fact, let's get rid of this fiat currency and get standard currency so it means something. The government is printing money likes there's no tomorrow right now and while in the short run, we may get another consumer "high', in the long run that $100 bill you're hiding for a reserve in your dresser won't even buy a candy bar. George Bush, Bill Clinton and all the other socialists have done enough damage.
12-17-2008 @ 8:44PM
Shawn said...
Now that the big banks have cash in them you better go get it and put it in your local bank or credit union. Because I wouldn't put it past those big banks who took bailout money to rip you off again. then what will you do wait until they print more money. make a run on the bailout banks and support local not national banks.