Financial crisis costs banks $1 trillion as dollar plunges


This is getting scary. With the latest bank earnings announcement, the total among of global bank write-downs have hit $1 trillion. At the same time, the dollar is plunging in value after a 20% rise in the last several months. How are these two related? I don't know what's in the minds of currency traders -- maybe they're taking profits today. But if the dollar keeps dropping, it could mean that the U.S. banking system is perceived as so weak that the rest of the world will look elsewhere for a safe haven.

How bad is the damage to the global financial system? Banks have written off $978 billion. More specifically, since the financial markets began to implode last year, U.S. banks have written off $678 billion since last year, while European banks and insurers have written down $300 billion. They've been able to raise almost that much in capital -- $928 billion to replenish capital, and cut 239,000 jobs.

Meanwhile, the dollar is reversing direction. After rising 20% in the wake of the last several months' financial implosion which caused investors around the world to scramble for a safe haven -- the dollar -- things are changing fast. The dollar declined the most against the euro since its 1999 debut and sank to a 13-year low versus the yen. Is this due to the Fed's announcement? I kind of doubt that a 0% Fed Funds rate was a surprise to traders -- that's because short-term bond yields have been negative over the last few weeks.

But one thing is pretty clear. If the dollar keeps plunging at this rate, it will probably mean a spike in oil prices -- since oil is traded in those weakening dollars. But there is also the chance that unless OPEC cuts output by very large amounts, the price will keep falling as the global economy slows down and demand plunges.

Also, if global investors lose confidence in the dollar, that could mean we will not be able to afford to borrow the additional trillions that will be needed to finance a big infrastructure program next year to boost the economy. We have been able to borrow so much in the last few months thanks to those negative interest rates for short-term bonds.

But if we need to pay higher interest rates on those to finance a stimulus program, those interest rates might make such a plan too expensive. That would be bad news for investors.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

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