This is getting scary. With the latest bank earnings announcement, the total among of global bank write-downs have hit $1 trillion. At the same time, the dollar is plunging in value after a 20% rise in the last several months. How are these two related? I don't know what's in the minds of currency traders -- maybe they're taking profits today. But if the dollar keeps dropping, it could mean that the U.S. banking system is perceived as so weak that the rest of the world will look elsewhere for a safe haven.
How bad is the damage to the global financial system? Banks have written off $978 billion. More specifically, since the financial markets began to implode last year, U.S. banks have written off $678 billion since last year, while European banks and insurers have written down $300 billion. They've been able to raise almost that much in capital -- $928 billion to replenish capital, and cut 239,000 jobs.
Meanwhile, the dollar is reversing direction. After rising 20% in the wake of the last several months' financial implosion which caused investors around the world to scramble for a safe haven -- the dollar -- things are changing fast. The dollar declined the most against the euro since its 1999 debut and sank to a 13-year low versus the yen. Is this due to the Fed's announcement? I kind of doubt that a 0% Fed Funds rate was a surprise to traders -- that's because short-term bond yields have been negative over the last few weeks.
But one thing is pretty clear. If the dollar keeps plunging at this rate, it will probably mean a spike in oil prices -- since oil is traded in those weakening dollars. But there is also the chance that unless OPEC cuts output by very large amounts, the price will keep falling as the global economy slows down and demand plunges.
Also, if global investors lose confidence in the dollar, that could mean we will not be able to afford to borrow the additional trillions that will be needed to finance a big infrastructure program next year to boost the economy. We have been able to borrow so much in the last few months thanks to those negative interest rates for short-term bonds.
But if we need to pay higher interest rates on those to finance a stimulus program, those interest rates might make such a plan too expensive. That would be bad news for investors.
Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter
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Reader Comments (Page 2 of 2)
12-17-2008 @ 8:53PM
Scrooge-mania Christmas said...
The dollar is so devalued under Actual President Dick Cheney and Actual Vice President George Bush, that a trillion doesn't even buy lunch for the corrupt Cheney & Bush contractor carpetbaggers in Iraq.
12-17-2008 @ 10:46PM
Robert Enegren said...
The big depression is close. You have not seen anything yet.
12-17-2008 @ 11:19PM
RE said...
Am I the only one, who for the last 10 years, looked around at every hill in my area, and saw new six to eight hundred thousand dollar homes, and wondered, where are these people getting all this money to build such elaborate homes that they don't need? The average wage here is 8 to 12 dollars an hr. Now we all know! There is a foreclosure notice in front of most of them.
12-17-2008 @ 11:41PM
SS said...
Oy Vey
12-18-2008 @ 12:18AM
Aggie said...
A giant government boondoggle infrastructure program will NOT boost the economy. In fact, it will be a drain on the economy. Government cannot create wealth; it can only destroy it. And our government seems to be doing a bang up job of that.
12-18-2008 @ 12:25AM
LRAdams said...
Wow a Trillion - not to worry guys we have 750million on the way. We are considering another 850 million although we may use it to pave roads. We will keep you informed* We are doing the best we can. ***** Your Friends in Washington DC***Dodd And Frank
12-18-2008 @ 12:44AM
Mark said...
I worked for Reagan and I can tell you he never took the position that "anything goes" in the financial markets. When you're responsible for someone else's money, regulatory agencies are supposed to police those markets. Reagan wanted less government interference in the "free market," but he never advocated letting bankers of any kind (conventional, investment or mortgage) function without financial cops. And he never would have agreed to government forcing the financial system to give guaranteed credit to people who couldn't afford it. That was just stupid and Reagan wasn't stupid.
12-18-2008 @ 1:36AM
alex said...
all this happen because the banks don't want to do anything about the mortgages loans and the congress don't do anything about this mortgages loan, all they do is talking and talking abou it but they haven't do anything, it is sad to see that they don't work on the main problem, this economy won't be fix untill someone cuts the mortgage loan for everybody at 4 or 3% that is the only solution.
12-18-2008 @ 1:37AM
George said...
CORRECT ME IF I AM WRONG, BUT HAVEN'T WE BEEN SPENDING ABOUT $50BILLION A MONTH MORE THAN WE EARN(EXTERNAL TRADE DEFICIT) FOR MANY YEARS(doesn't include the $8billion/month squandered in Iraq). SEEMS TO ME THAT REALITY IS UPON US. UNLESS WE PRODUCE AND SELL MORE INEVITABLY WE WILL HAVE TO CONSUME LESS. WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THAT PROCESS
12-18-2008 @ 1:47AM
ATHELSTAN said...
Now we have to start thinking about treason trials for Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke. Bush alone won't satisfy the angry mobs soon to be forming in the streets.
12-18-2008 @ 3:39AM
Willis Fraley Jr said...
The problem is the high salary's of the officers of the banks, have you seen their offices with their $3000 dollar desks and wide screen TV's ect, they are the cause of this down fall as well as giving buddies loans that they dont pay back ,how can a bank charging 5% to 30% apr lose money?? Very mind boggling indeed!!!
12-18-2008 @ 4:16AM
Ron said...
How anyone does not think this is a DEPRESSION we are in im clueless. With this massive debt and Bank looses and unemployment going to JUMP in January. WE are in a Depression one like never seen before. Any one that keeps a lot of money in banks is crazy today, even with the 200,000 FICA , can it be really trusted. Banks don,t pay squat in interest anyway. In the next year a single 1 oz gold coin in your hand will be worth more than the $1,500.00 a oz. USA dollors will be paid for it. The value of the dollor will be worthless and the buying power per dollor will be very low. When i was over seas you had to carry thick stacks of cash with you of that countys currency.( like a apple was 30 paper bills, a cab ride was 100 paper bills) its going to be that way soon here in the USA. Go to Grocery store you will have to shell out $700.00 for a order.
12-18-2008 @ 4:30AM
Ron said...
There is no way these big companys can operate with these kind of looses. Look at the travel industry a ship scruse is only $49.00 for 2 days per person. How can they operate like that. Other items in stores are dropping pice ways like crazy. Air fairs are so cheap its scary, big companys can,t operate like this and pay people what they have been getting for years. Its impossible, and can not last much longer. We are in a depression bigger than the great depression of the past and the goverment knows it and won,t admit it, there afraid of a human meltdown and panic...well look around you its time to hit the panic button, to amny people are wondering if there jobs will be there from month to month now, and don,t have any credit left, that spells meltdown of personal finances to me, and DEPRESSION.
12-18-2008 @ 11:02AM
Steve said...
It is all the fault of the unions, hey might as well blame them.