Joy Global rallies sharply after earnings, but downgrades are a threat

Milwaukee-based Joy Global Inc. (NASDAQ: JOYG) offered up its fourth-quarter earnings report today, with the company raking in a profit of $1.11 per share on $1 billion in sales. The results surpassed analysts' expectations, which called for earnings of $1.08 per share.

The mining-equipment concern also updated its fiscal 2009 guidance. Joy Global now expects revenues of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion for the current fiscal year, with earnings per share arriving between $3.60 and $4.00. The forecast fell short of Wall Street's consensus estimates for a full-year profit of $4.24 per share on $4 billion in revenue.

With so many corporations falling short of quarterly earnings expectations, investors have been quick to reward JOYG's better-than-expected fourth quarter. The stock gained roughly 10% in the first hour of today's trading, propelling the shares above resistance from their descending 10-week moving average.

Once the euphoria fades, though, Joy Global could be vulnerable to negative analyst notes. Zacks reports six Strong Buy ratings and two Buys, compared to just three skeptical Holds. If any of these bullish brokers are disappointed by the company's modest outlook for 2009, the stock could be hit with downgrades.

Price-target cuts are also a potential threat. JOYG's average 12-month price target is $49.45, according to Thomson Financial, representing a lofty premium of 118% to Tuesday's closing price. Any downward revisions to this consensus estimate could draw fresh selling pressure to the security.

Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.