Preannouncement after preannouncement after preannouncement. Yawn after yawn after yawn.
I've never seen anything like it. Worst ever. But, did anyone really think Ingersoll Rand (NYSE: IR) (Cramer's Take), cut in half here, would make the quarter? How about Nucor (NYSE: NUE) (Cramer's Take)? Stanley Works (NYSE: SWK) (Cramer's Take)? ITT (NYSE: ITT) (Cramer's Take)? Eaton (NYSE: ETN) (Cramer's Take)? Pentair (NYSE: PNR) (Cramer's Take)? I figured they would all miss. I bet the ones that preannounced last night hardly go down. Why should they? ITT's up nicely. Eaton's unchanged. Not even glancing blows. Nucor's up 10! Ten from a preannouncement.
Most glaring: the 10% miss by Joy Global (NASDAQ: JOYG) (Cramer's Take) with the almost 15% rally! Now that's gigantic.
That's why people feel better about this tape. In the end of that big run up, stocks failed to react to even the biggest beats. Now they fail to react to the biggest misses.
Makes you want to go out and buy all the Honeywell (NYSE: HON) (Cramer's Take), the one that didn't miss, that you can!
But that's the true tug of war in this market. We are all fearful from the top down. I mean, think about it. There was a guy on Bloomberg TV last night saying that anyone who can even pretend to know where things are going to be next year is lying. Anyone.
Yet the stocks reflect total and utter uncertainty and then some. No, I don't want to buy Nucor up here. I sure wish I had when it was reflecting imminent collapse of the system rather than just prospective collapse, which is where we are now.
Like everyone else, including the policymakers, I know that there is no lending going on whatsoever at any prices that can be considered sane unless it is from the FDIC. I know that things are just awful in the credit markets.
But I know that the stocks are going higher. The worst tug of war for a rigorous investor possible because the stocks are forecasting that Bernanke and Co.'s plan wins.
Or at least that it doesn't lose.
Here's where I come out. I know it may not win, I know things are very bad, but I also know that if he had done nothing, I would be laughing at all of those people who bought and are buying.
Now it just doesn't seem very funny. Seems like the joke's on those not playing...
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Eaton.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-18-2008 @ 11:57AM
BHarrison said...
Well, as you say: "the joke may wind up being on me eventually".
On Tuesday Paulson proclaimed that "the WORST is OVER" . . . and the events during the last two days, the disclosures of continuing multi-BILLION losses just keeps on rolling along. (Paulson has lost ANY credibility that he may have thought that he had.)
The government has not provided any of the FULL DISCLOSURE and TRANPARENCY that they had promised. Nor have they implemented a prudent and reasonable amount of "oversight and regulation" to any degree to instill INTEGRITY in the FIs or the markets/funds.
For small somewhat novice investors like myself, they are not going to jump back into chum and blood filled, manipulated markets, filled with sharks. It is just too risky. A "bird" (a cash dollar) in the hand is worth a lot of birds in the nearby bushes (potential investments).
I'm staying out of the markets until there is a modicum of reasonable INTEGRITY in the markets. As you surely know, yesterday the CEO of GE announced that GE was going to terminate providing quarterly reports to stockholders . . . that doesn't exactly "inspire confidence in GE".
At this point, the markets need me more than I need the markets. I can wait it all out, can they? "Supply and demand", "risks commensurate to the potential RoI", etc., etc.
Yes, a healthy economy needs a strong market; but I can't afford to lose it all subsidizing the "insiders" profits in the meantime. INTEGRITY has to be established in the markets and in the corporations.
12-18-2008 @ 3:26PM
beachpaul said...
You got it, BHarri! Stay put. Except GLW. When it hits $8 again, like it just did, buy. Program in sell at $8.80-90 like it did two days ago. Do this each time it hits $8. It makes you feel better. Better than the stuff Comrade Cramer is taking.
12-23-2008 @ 3:50PM
lucky18 said...
Can anyone explain to me so that I can understand where all the billions have gone ? I'm talking about the hard cash or is the only folks that deal in cash just Joe 6 pack.