Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) shareholders approved two proposals: The first, to issue up to 3.5 million more shares, increasing the number of common stock from 4.5 million to 8 million. The second, to enact a reverse stock split by a ratio of not less than one-for-ten and not more than one-for-fifty. Sirius faces delisting from the Nasdaq as its stock has traded below $1 since September 19. It was given a grace period until the end of January. With the reverse stock split, the satellite radio company will try to spruce up its battered stock price, avoid delisting and also pay down debt.
I doubt this will help. The problems at Sirius are great and have been exacerbated by the current economic slowdown and an auto industry in shambles. The 13.5 cent stock price reflects investor concerns. Sirius is unprofitable and has a large debt load of $1 billion, due in part in February. It also didn't have positive cash-flow for a full-year to date, but predicts breakeven cash flow in 2009, and positive cash flow in 2010.
Sirius will cut its work force by 22% by year end to further cut costs, and now projects a smaller loss than previously anticipated. CEO Mel Karmazin insists that the merger with XM helped with cost controls and he expects profitability in the years ahead. He said that "what's going on is not operationally problematic."
Perhaps Karmazin is right, but I have my concerns, including how much a reverse stock split would help. Many companies have tried that, but usually, when share prices get this low, it's indicative of real and serious problems. Not in the very distant past, Nortel Networks (NYSE: NT) experienced similar problems and pulled a similar stunt, with a 1-for-10 reverse stock split. Guess what? Without dealing properly with its fundamental issues, NT shares are even lower today than they were before the split and there has been talk of bankruptcy and even another reverse stock split as it received another notice from the NYSE.
Sirius is dealing with severe problems too, not the least is declining consumer demand stemming from both the economic situation and increased competition from the likes of MP3s. I doubt this move would help, but as a subscriber, I hope it does.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-19-2008 @ 10:30AM
Hoagie58 said...
Well, aren't you just a little ray of sunshine! With the bailout of the auto industry now approved, and the common knowledge that after a long recession there is generally a large upswing, I believe Sirius has a legitimate chance!
12-19-2008 @ 10:16AM
almarote said...
Mr. Karmazin also stands a good chance of loosing a lot of XM subscribers acquired through the merger with his elimination of many former XM channels. Many - if not most - of my favorite XM channels have gone away and their Sirius "you might like..." channels are not even close and have too much talking. I have considered cancelling my multi-radio subscription since most of the channels I liked are gone but as a shareholder I wouldn't help the cause any, would I. C'mon Mr. Karmazin... give us our XM channels back and you get to keep the subscriber's money... it's win-win for all of us!
12-19-2008 @ 10:49AM
Melly said...
Oh, Hoagie58, I know. I don't enjoy being all gloomy about Sirius. Like almarote I'm a subscriber and I like Sirius. I hope Karmazin is listening to subscribers like almarote and I also hope you're right...
12-20-2008 @ 1:02AM
gungadin said...
I get it that the SIRI investors approved every item asked by the Board and Mel Karmazin.
I suspect that the deck was heavily stacked against the vast majority of individual stock holders whose votes mattered not simply because they held less than the few wealthy patrons holding likely 75percent of the shares.
I'd bet every one of my SIRI shares that those core holders are now in the process of dumping SIRI stock.
I offer as Proof the following facts that this is happening.
By the volume on SIRI that traded during regular session 12/19/2008 was approx 44Million shares. But afterhours trading on SIRI was 105Million shares. Of that 105M shares, over 97Million shares were traded in 7 blocks of 6.7Million and 7 blocks of 7.1Million shares at $0.1221
Somebody just bought 2.78percent of SIRI. (Using the ratio of issued shares to traded shares). in LESS THAN ONE MINUTE.
The problem I see is that the share price was far below the market at the time of the trade. Now the Day Low had fallen to $0.115 at 4pm but the volume was only 2.1k shares in 8 trades. For nearly every trade over 100k the share price was far lower than the trades just before and just after by nearly a full cent. Three trades of nearly 3million shares total were closed at the afterhours low of $0.1110
All other afterhours trades averaged 15k shares trading at an average price of $0.1260
This appears to me as a deliberate attempt to depress SIRI share price. I know of only a few shareholders that have the ability and motivation to dump their stock at an obvious loss of at least 15percent on the intraday average price.
I'd be very happy to see the SEC investigate SIRI and it would not keep me awake at night if Mel and his wrecking crew were indicted on securities fraud.
Mel, I can only pray for justice and that criminal charges are brought against you. May it be that a jury of twelve good citizens (Probably a little poorer nonetheless) mete out a fair verdict against you.
12-25-2008 @ 4:45PM
Aaron said...
almarote stated "give us our XM channels back and you get to keep the subscriber's money... it's win-win for all of us." Which is an observation from a strictly XM subscribers point of view. I lost quite a few Sirius channels I enjoyed, and in many ways I agree with almarote's point of view, but from the other side of the field.
Unfortunately, this is the single most logical move that the merged company has made. Half of the talent is no longer employed, which means considerable cuts in cost. As far as the stock goes, I'm willing to risk a small amount on it. Currently it's at .12/share. The hope rests in the auto industry not faltering completely, as well as banks being able to start lending again. I'm not sure if it's the same situation now, but a while ago Sirius was offering a free subscription for a year with the purchase of a new vehicle that was equipped with a receiver. I think that it would be a solid idea to extend this kind of thinking a bit further and offer free access for, say 3 months for beand new subscribers with the purchase of a new standalone unit. There are some fairly inexpensive radios out there that, along with 3 months of service, would possibly push people more into trying it out. I don't believe that extra subscribers would cause any of the companies satellites to work any harder or cost any more money to maintain. The logic is that once people try it, they don't want to leave it. It's like cable television. I cannot tell you how many people will keep their homes "heated" at almost freezing temperatures who I know with the justification that they'll go crazy without cable programming. Sirius/XM is essentially the same thing, but in a different medium.
Regardless, I have a great deal of confidence in Karmazin. I truly believe that had the merger came about sooner, and that a better arrangement could have been made in order for the merger to go through, none of this would be happening.
12-30-2008 @ 11:00AM
Fred Nastri said...
Frustrating. I own 4300shares and truly it is a good product..but why keep signing the likes of a mad dog Russo who was old news in NYC to a 5 million dollar contract and then have him in direct competiton to NFL network programs and ESPN etc., no sense and as a buisnessman, well Mell hope you read this and know that you are not that smart now are you..so do something to get theses shares back...FJN
12-30-2008 @ 11:31AM
Sheldon L said...
Melly has it right. The stock is toast. I wrote the same thing 18 months ago.
The product is fine...but McDonald's does not make the best hamburgers, Microsoft does not make the best software, and Motorola's Iridium Satellite phone system provided a great communications system and collapsed for similar reasons.
Internet radio will take its place.
12-30-2008 @ 12:23PM
Mina L. Brown said...
What and how can we do to help keep Siri stock on the market so as not to loose all our money. will the bailout help?
1-28-2009 @ 5:10AM
John Huckleberry said...
The share holders would best be served by Sirius-XM selling out to a Internet based company such as our Hollywood Tonight LLC. A private company whose goals include Internet and regular radio. CEO Mel Karmazin would be fired or demoted as he doesn't have a clue as to the brandings he manages and what to do with it sadly. We know what to do with Sirius-XM to make it a wildly popular system again.
John Huckleberry
CEO
Hollywood Tonight LLC
www.hollywoodtonightllc.com corporate site
www.hollywood-tonight.com media press site
www.hollywoodtonightproductions.com production web site
www.newyorktonightproductions.com production web site
www.hollywoodtonightmagazine.com print site
and so on and so forth...
be safe and have fun looking over our 70+ domains, brands, companies, productions and start ups. Thank you!