Nouriel Roubini, the once obscure New York University economics professor who two years ago predicted the current global financial crisis and recession, said those who are turning bullish on the U.S. stock market need to reassess the data.Roubini told Bloomberg News he was "still quite bearish on U.S. and global equities." Despite losing much of their value already, Roubini thinks they could still lose another 15-20% before any recovery beginning towards the end of 2009.
Caveat emptor: let the (stock) buyer beware
The S&P 500 has fallen more than 40% in 2008, and with a forward P/E of about 12, one could make the case that stocks are at least approaching cheap levels, based on the post-World War II P/E average of about 17. Economist Richard Felson is not of that camp.
"Cheap compared to what? Compared to bull market high P/Es of 25 or 26, yes, but that assumes a) a return to GDP growth levels experienced before the recession hit; and b) that stocks won't drop to lower levels. You can't assume either, so Roubini's downside forecast may represent 'discretion being the better part of valor'," Felson said. "This is a risky time to own stocks or increase positions. Stocks could become much cheaper, particularly if the recession lasts into Q3 2009."
Further, history supports Felson's and Roubini's interpretation of the market's value. During bear markets, which usually accompany recessions, the forward P/E can dip much lower, to even 10. (You don't want to know what the forward P/E fell to during the Great Depression.)
Then there's the Washington factor, Felson noted. Historically, improved regulations have meant tougher revenue and earnings growth conditions -- a political reality that argues not against a return to adequate GDP growth, but against a return to giddy P/E multiples.
Market Analysis: Economist Roubini certainly is not one to add to euphoria. Still, a critical review argues that looking at a company's P/E is not nearly enough. Investors need to evaluate its prospects for revenue and earnings growth juxtaposed against the outlook for the U.S. economy (and of course, credit market conditions). If too many 'optimistic' conditions have to line up, that company's revenue and earnings targets may be unreasonable, and that cheap stock may get much cheaper.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
12-22-2008 @ 7:13PM
Dorian said...
"Down, down, down we goes...where we stops; nobody knows." This generational market rise (since 1982) has taken a long time to build up to this point. A lot of excesses have yet to be worked off. The unwinding has really only gotten started, so fasten your seatbelts, folks - you ain't seen nothin' yet. Remember, the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust. We are in a whole new paradigm now, and Mr. Market still wants to discount things a lot further before he is finished. Position yourself accordingly.
12-22-2008 @ 7:40PM
teltech54 said...
I don't know where this guy has been but I have been predicting that the DOW would be down to 6500 sometime next year for months now. Actually I figured sometime in the first quarter. When will these economists get a clue?
12-22-2008 @ 7:43PM
Lorenz said...
Isn't Peter Schiff Dr. Doom? Oh well - the market will get back in shape eventually.
12-22-2008 @ 8:07PM
bob said...
dont think it is over yet just wait and see
12-22-2008 @ 8:11PM
dp said...
In March of 2007 I said the crash would start in Oct 2007 and the market would go to 8500. I also picked the date of the dot com bust 8 months before it happened. How come I’m not on T.V.
I now think that the last qtr of 2008 is more about fear then lack of ability to spend by the consumer. Companies that were shaky will fail. It needs to happen every so often. Next year will start slow and then do fine. It won’t be like 2006 but more like 1998.
If I am right do I become famous? I think in July of 2009 the market will get over exited and go too high. Maybe I should get a sweater and a bow tie for the interviews.
12-22-2008 @ 8:11PM
orville said...
The current financial/asset correction is only the tip of this pinnacle. Unfortunate as it seems, it is nothing compared to the realization that modern society and all our ills have no place in this overcrouded, resource dessimated, quickly changing world we live in. How anyone can be certain of any future predictions is beyond me. The only certainty in our future is death, however that is, according to your beliefs. Personnally I got out of the market in October 2007 and am glad I did. Unfortunately, now I'm adding to the current downturn because of hording, but that's my choice.
12-22-2008 @ 8:15PM
Sam Sampath said...
This prediction of another 20% slide in the stock market seems to be very much in line with the projection that "subprime meltdown" will be followed by "Alt-A and Option Arm" collapse in 2009!!
12-22-2008 @ 8:22PM
wily said...
It always cracks me up when the "talking head" market analysts say, "look at the history." Like the market had been around 3000 years. History. LOL.
12-22-2008 @ 8:55PM
Jon said...
teltech54.....Where the heck were you when all of the banks, mortgage companies were playing games? Where the heck were you when Fannie and Freddie, AIG and so on were making bad business moves? Where the heck were you when Madoff was pulling his BS? I know...you are a quarterback and it's Monday...give me a break...pleeeeeease! If you know so much, Obama is rounding out his economic team...let's just hire Nostodamus Teltech and fire all of the Harvard wizards...you will solve it all!!!!
12-22-2008 @ 9:12PM
Jon said...
dp...you and teltech ought to get together and predict when the world will end among other great "I told you so's".... can I look into your crystal ball? after it happens I mean..LOL
12-22-2008 @ 9:46PM
cruisenot said...
The quickiest way to earn a 20% plus return on your money is to payoff your credit card debt. Guaranteed to work every time. Now is a great time to invest in paying down debt and hoarding piles of cash. CASH! Piles of cold hard cash is the best way to weather the current economic situation. I discovered one of the best books you'll ever find about finance, "How to Become Filthy Rich on Your Current Income" at www.how-to-become-rich.com. If people read books like this one we would not have the current situation we do.
12-22-2008 @ 10:02PM
joe said...
5500 Dow May 27th and then a 20% recovery
12-22-2008 @ 10:28PM
azark said...
oh haha i thought dp and teltech were joking the entire time...i didn't realize they were being serious
anyways hopefully everything will get better by at least sept next year--gotta start preparing for recruiting for jobs!
12-22-2008 @ 10:29PM
Lori said...
cruise net I pay no intrest I just got a 12 month on purchases 0% for one years if your so rich and cash heavy you would have had that offer I don't think you do Credit card companies don't want you if you do everything in cash
12-22-2008 @ 10:44PM
Duke and Duke said...
It wouldn't sirprise me a bit that stocks will keep going down. The economic black pleague has not killed off enough companies yet to reach the bottom. Stock prices will be so low eventually, that a toddler will be able to buy any stock with their pennies. What kind of outlook is there for a rebound any time soon? It will be years before all the forclosures will be minimized enough to see the bottom. Right now there is so much muck, corruption, massive debt and writedowns that making a profit is only a pipe dream. To grow the economy it will take years to get the debt ratios down, and dependable jobs created again to balance the economy. Right now the economy is so out of balance because the debt load is so heavy. Erasing that debt by forgiveness or writedowns will not make the stock market rebound that quickly. Money coming in will renew confidence. I do not mean government money but consumer money.
12-22-2008 @ 10:43PM
vince demarco said...
First the banks,then insurance,then Fredie&Fannie,now the 3 Detroit autos,with their dealers now in line,the commercial real estate barons are now there,who is next. 750 Billion later,nothing moves.After the new president elect takes over,another 800 Billion,to "save jobs".It all started when Mr. Barney Frank blocked all audits of Fred & Fan that started the largest scam in the history of the world! Mr. Frank has created on earth a "Black Hole" where everything goes in to never come out.This period will be known as the time of the "Greatest transfer of wealth" in World History,from the taxpayers to the super rich.Remember,for every share of stock sold,there is a buyer.Assets are now being accumulated at 2 cents on the dollar buy the super rich.In 10 years,95 % of the country's wealth will be held by 100 people.
12-22-2008 @ 11:24PM
larry said...
no one knows when the market will hit bottom. and any one who says otherwise right now is a fool.
12-22-2008 @ 11:33PM
Kevin said...
Everyone needs to take a deep breath and calm down. Half of this crisis is because of the media driven hype!! Yes, we have had a financial "come-to Jesus" awaking, but our economy has not shrank by 50 or 60% overnight like some of the doomsday prophets are preaching. Right noe the FED has got to pull the stock purchases back out of the backs they bought into that are not lending the money back out. That or take the remaining 350 billion dollars left in the "Bailout" and resurrect the "Bank of the United States" and start lending monies to people that have good, sound projects to build and a REAL means to support the loan repayment. Think about this for 5 minutes - 350 billion dollars at a conservative 20% capitalization rate (not the typical 10%) could make 1.75 TRILLION dollars available for loans to buy cars, build stores, expand factories, build new power plants, etc.. Right now the problem is the banks have let the loan pendlum swing too far the other way and we are suffocating from lack of capital instead of choking on too much like we were. It just like the Tanqueray Gin guy says "Always in Moderation"
12-22-2008 @ 11:34PM
Double Doom said...
1929 Wall Street Crash created the fascism that led to World War II. 2008 Wall Street meltdown now creating a scarier level of fascism that will lead to World War III.
12-23-2008 @ 12:21AM
peter said...
Attention all Doomsayers! Buy stock in companies that make wheelbarrows. They'll soon be filled with hoarded cash and pushed to the nearest bakery to buy a loaf of bread. Bon appetit!