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Southern Peru (PCU): Two income experts build gains in copper

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This post is part of a special report, A Dozen Ways to Play an Obama Building Boom.

Two advisors that specializes in income investing -- Mark Skousen and Nick Lanyi -- both turn to high-yielder, Southern Peru Copper (NYSE: PCU) as a contrarian play on building and infrastructure growth ahead.

Skousen, in his High Income Alert, he says, "Make no mistake, this is a contrarian play. But if you believe in buying straw hats in winter, PCU is an exceptional value at these levels."

"More than 2.9 billion pounds of copper are used in construction every year, primarily in plumbing and wiring, while electronic products use more than 1.9 billion pounds a year.

"Transportation equipment -- including cars, trains, planes and submarines -- uses more than 1 billion pounds a year.

"The manufacture of industrial equipment requires another 1 billion pounds annually. And consumer and general products, from cookware to church bells to pennies, require another 800 million pounds.

"Southern Peru operates the world's largest copper mine high in the Andes mountains, producing more than 800 million pounds of copper a year.

"Of course, the commodity bull market that was running at a full gallop in the first half of this year has stopped dead in its tracks. Copper prices are no exception. When building and manufacturing slow, so does the demand for the red metal.

"However, the slowdown is more than reflected in Southern Peru's current price, down 70% during the past year even though operating margins are 52% and management is earning a whopping 46% return on equity.

"This stock is so cheap that it sells for just six times earnings. That's pretty amazing when you consider that the company is benefiting from lower fuel costs and continued strong demand in China, India and other major emerging markets.

"Southern Peru also is yielding 10%. With the company sitting on more than $1.2 billion in cash, it will have no trouble paying its dividend.

"Make no mistake, this is a contrarian play. Commodity prices are unpredictable from one week to the next. But if you believe in buying straw hats in winter, PCU is an exceptional value at these levels."

Nick Lanyi, in his High Yield International, says, "Weakness in commodities suggests a screaming sign of an overreaction; it's time to take another look at a high-quality, high-yielding commodity stocks such as Southern Copper.

"With copper prices falling, the firm's earnings are taking a hit -- and the dividend has recently been cut. Now that this cut has already been factored into the shares, I think it's a better time to look at the stock than just a few weeks ago.

"Based on 2008 dividends, the stock yields 12.7% at the current price. Even if the dividend comes down more, I look for a yield of 8-9% over the next 12 months.

"And if copper rebounds over the next year, as I expect, the company's earnings will recover, and its dividend could be increased substantially late in 2009 or early 2010.

"Copper prices have been cut in half since July. Longer term, the outlook for copper prices is excellent. Supplies are limited by equipment and labor shortages, which is affecting the ability of mines around the world to expand production.

"As emerging markets continue to grow and the world economy rebounds, copper demand will rise because the metal is used in power plants, electrical wiring, plumbing and other essential building blocks of a modern economic infrastructure.

"The stock currently trades at a P/E ratio of only seven, well below its historical average in the 10-12 range. A rebound to historical averages would imply a gain of roughly +40-50% from current levels.

"This is definitely a contrarian play. However, given the severity of the sell-off and the size of the yield, I think now is the time to act. The stock could remain volatile, but within a year or so, the reward could be substantial."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 02:04 AM

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