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Toyota to lose $1.7 billion in 2008, first time in 70 years

Toyota Motor Corp.'s (NYSE: TM) is going to lose money this year on its auto operations -- but as a group it will still make a profit. Does Toyota's loss mean that the U.S. automakers are off the hook? Only if you think that General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) was making money all the years that Toyota was. And that is most certainly not true.

GM has lost $74 billion since 2004 and its stock price has collapsed 95% since its CEO Rick Wagoner took over in 2000. Toyota made $28 billion in operating income in 2007. Meanwhile, Toyota will lose $1.7 billion in its automobile operations in 2008 but will earn a corporate profit of $560 million thanks to offsetting profits from its Daihatsu and Hino product lines. Moreover, Toyota has $18.5 billion in cash, and relatively little debt so it should weather the storm relatively well.

But this is not to say that Toyota does not recognize that there's a problem. It is slashing production to reflect a grim forecast for 2009 demand. Toyota also lowered its worldwide vehicle sales forecast for the current fiscal year to 7.54 million vehicles -- 15% below the 8.9 million vehicles it sold in 2007. And overall, the Japanese auto industry cut production by 2.2 million vehicles in 2008, laid off non-staff workers and delayed capital investment.

So far no evidence that the Japanese companies are looking to their government for a handout.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

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Last updated: July 06, 2009: 10:12 AM

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