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Wal-Mart Weekly: Why Target is losing market share to Wal-Mart

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Welcome to the 90th installment of The Wal-Mart Weekly, a column dedicated to bringing you insight, wit, facts, results, opinions, and just a bit of everything else when it comes to a very hot topic these days: Wal-Mart.

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) has seen striking results in the last few months while the rest of retail flounders and predicts some kind of impending retail apocalypse. Consumers are spending less, credit is still tight and folks are losing their jobs in large numbers. But hey -- gas is at the cheapest level in five years.

Wal-Mart's success recently lies in the fact that it has never strayed from being known as the absolute low-price leader in retail (in perception, and in most costs reality). But, where has Target gone? Throughout 2007, Target was growing faster than Wal-Mart and it seemed the Minneapolis-based retailer was somehow beating Wal-Mart at its own retail game -- a chore very few retailers have managed to accomplish. Where do those efforts stand now, at the end of 2008?

Wal-Mart: the low price perception that fits reality

Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) has been on a roll recently. The second-largest discount retailer in the U.S. was enjoying quite the competitive war with Wal-Mart throughout 2007 and into the first half of 2008. I covered this rivalry quite extensively here at BloggingStocks during that time, and it was a neat battle to watch. Target's marketing was always geared towards those that wanted the style and experience of a higher-end retailer, but with the secret wish for those same ever-low prices that Wal-Mart had made famous over the last few decades.

Target's trademark red color, its stores and its merchandise were always bright and cheery, and it created a department store experience for many instead of the hastily-arranged, big-box type of retail shopping experience Wal-Mart generally provided. Where Wal-Mart was dull and lifeless (but cheap), Target was bright and energetic (and still cheap as well).

Wal-Mart's attempt to recruit higher-end shoppers to buy higher-margin goods was launched in 2007 to mediocre response. It was probably an undertaking that did not have the best chances for success, but the retailer needed to branch out and grow more instead of just growing the low-margin bottom line with its core customer base. It was, by any stretch, trying to steal Target's customers away with brighter stores, a re-vamped shopping experience (to a point) and goods that would have possibly put Wal-Mart on a larger plane of retail existence.

Then the housing and financial meltdown of 2008 happens. Wal-Mart, being prescient or not, changes its marketing slogan to "Save Money. Live Better." -- an update to the "Everyday Low Prices" it had used for a very long time. Just as U.S. shoppers were reeling from high gas prices, millions saw their homes foreclosed on or their debt skyrocket without any rise in liquidity.

Then, the summer of 2008 comes and financial shenanigans cause the market to tank, and the U.S. auto industry start reeling due to the inability of many customers to obtain credit for new car purchases. Then the layoffs begin, and it's officially recognized that the U.S. is in a economic recession. The standard U.S. consumer starts realizing that the financial pinch is on, and millions of existing (and "new") customers begin invading Wal-Mart stores like there is no tomorrow. There is one goal: save as much money as possible on as many items needed to live as possible.

Wal-Mart's core strength - one that Target does not have

At the time the U.S. economy started imploding this year more customers showed up to Wal-Mart's doors for bargains. At the same time, Target's status as the "cheap chic" of retail was quickly replaced by the need for ultimate savings at the cost of the experience and marketing Target provided to recruit shoppers. It just goes to show us all how fickle the American consumer can become, but then again, these are very odd times.

It's hard to recall how many things "went wrong" in 2008 in one breath or without bending our collective minds into a giant pretzel. The overextension of mortgage holders to the financial companies betting (incorrectly) on wafer-thin promises to automakers seeing a huge drop in sales to companies slicing over a million jobs in such a short time makes for interesting retail times. When it all hits at once, that's when the retailers who are prepared to respond to a crisis jump into action.

After shopping at a few local SuperTarget locations over the last few weeks, I compared several food and general merchandise items between Target and Wal-Mart and it was easy to see why hard times have fallen on Target recently. From bottled water to ravioli to toilet tissue to flat-screen TVs, Target was consistently higher on its prices than Wal-Mart. Anywhere from a 5% to a 15% price increase was seen on these items (same exact model number in some cases), and this during the busiest shopping month of the year.

Has Target increased prices or has Wal-Mart steadily lowered them to keep the low price perception alive? It's hard to say which, but in both instances, the Target locations were decently busy (but not packed). The two closest Wal-Mart stores, by comparison, were incredibly busy. Just a walk through the aisles was enough to confirm this. Either Target was not interested in competing on price with Wal-Mart this holiday season, or it was interested in profit instead of same-store sales figures on a month-to-month basis. But, with the holiday retail shopping season about to wrap up this week and next, what is Target's plan in 2009? The recession will be lingering around quite a while, and shoppers may still continue to prefer Wal-Mart for their purchases as much as possible. Where does that leave Target? On interesting ground.

The rivalry between Wal-Mart and Target -- which hit a high in 2007 -- will see interesting new ground in 2009 as America and many countries around the world grapple with harsh economic realities and consumers find every possible way to maintain their standard of living by searching for bargain prices on products through a huge variety of methods. One method that doesn't seem to take rocket scientists to figure out happens to be just setting foot in a local Wal-Mart Supercenter from what I have seen in recently months. The majority of customers won't care about products being made in China or anything else -- all they'll want is low prices. Until this economic funk has lifted, Wal-Mart will be poised on top of millions of consumer retail minds.

Stay tuned right here this time next week for another edition of the Wal-Mart Weekly. Until then, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 05:44 AM

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