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How much money can the Fed create?

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The U.S. Federal Reserve is reaching into its 'new tool box' to use quantitative easing to help jump-start the U.S. economy from it worst recession in decades, and it begs the question: is there a limit to amount of money the Fed can create?

"That depends," economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks. "There are very few case studies for quantitative easing, and there is not a consensus on what is the maximum amount of money available."

Money: it makes the world go round

Quantitative easing involves increasing funds in the financial system after the Fed loses the ability to lower the cost of money from an interest rate standpoint. Basically, the Fed adds cash by purchasing Treasuries, agency debt, and if the need arises, other asset-backed securities, hoping that some of that money will be lent or otherwise deployed in commercial operations.

The Fed's balance sheet has surged to $2.3 trillion from about $924 million in September, when the first wave of the financial crisis began to freeze credit markets and decimate stock markets around the world.

Moreover, the Fed's balance sheet is likely to increase as other interventions become necessary to stabilize the financial system. For example, the Fed is on the hook for up to another $240-$265 billion as a result of the rescue of financial services giant Citigroup (NYSE: C).


"One school says the amount of money the Fed has available is up to a set percentage of GDP, say 15% or 20%," Wang said. "But another school argues the amount of money is much larger than that."

Is the Fed in danger of hitting a balance sheet ceiling any time soon? No, says Wang. "At $3 trillion the Fed's balance sheet will total about 20% of GDP. That's high, but not, unprecedented, in global terms," Wang said. "The Bank of Japan's quantitative easing policy early this decade led to a balance sheet that was 30% of GDP."

Further, inflation remains a key variable, but don't worry about an uptrend in inflation, at least through 2009, Wang said. "People have to keep in mind that while the Fed and Treasury are adding trillions of dollars to the system, trillions of dollars have been eliminated from the system in the form of bad bonds, housing price declines, and of course, stock market declines," Wang said. "The larger risk for the year ahead and probably longer, remains deflation not inflation."

Hence, with inflation under control, look for the Fed to use classic measures to determining when to taper quantitative easing, Wang said, such as, is the economy growing fast enough, with unemployment declining?

Monetary / Economic Analysis: For investors - - and business executives - - the U.S. economy does appear to be entering a sort of 'brave new world,' but don't view quantitative easing as adding excess liquidity, only as replacing liquidity. The view from here argues that, combined fiscal stimulus, quantitative easing will generate demand and get the economy back on a sustainable growth track.
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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 02:51 AM

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