Best Buy has historically been valued as a retail "growth" stock, and while earnings may be fine in 2009, BBY will see falling revenue and negative growth, which will keep its valuation and stock price lower than the historical norm. Analysis calling for a return to the norm is just flat out wrong.

I'd stay away from Best Buy. Or, better yet, once the emotional reaction to Obamanomics has run its course and reality sinks in, short BBY with the purchase of puts.

It's a great company -- this is just a lousy point in time for investors.

Research In Motion

Is BlackBerry-maker Research In Motion any better off?

In a word, no. In fact, it's in worse shape than most people think.

The smartphone market grew 12% in Q3 2008 (Gartner Group data) and more than 50% in North America for all of 2008. That is growth that could not be replicated -- even in a healthy economy.

RIMM generates a great deal of revenue and profits from licenses driven by the number of business employees using their products. With more and more people losing their jobs, that number shrinks by the minute, and probably faster than consumers are picking up the slack.

In the latest ChangeWave surveys on consumer smartphone purchases, Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) market share increased from 11% to 23% since June. RIMM dropped from 42% to 41%. Apple also had higher satisfaction ratings than RIMM, according to our survey.

The iPhone is pulling brand-new smartphone users through the incredible strength of the Apple brand and other Apple products. RIMM is being pulled in by its installed base.

Furthermore, the new BlackBerry Storm is not going to take anything by storm. It cannot be produced in reliable quantities and the company has not shown it can execute in the consumer marketplace nearly as well as Apple.

Longer term, the iPhone is, at its core, a computer that will evolve and eventually replace telephone-centric devices -- imagine the iPhone plus Skype -- which would mean the end of the cell phone.

I'm not saying that RIMM is a failing company. It is very good company with great products, but 2009, and even 2010, are still way too murky to put money to work.

There are still many investors and analysts who are addicted to their BlackBerrys, and this has made RIMM a cult stock, which also means that it's hard to short, especially with puts.

That being said, consider the puts -- long-term ones that expire in 2010 or 2011. And be mindful of the continuing Obama rally.

Michael Shulman is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.