Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth and Sleep Well at Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.
For a better investing year in 2009, think about championship basketball. Winners at every level have one thing in common: defense. It's defense that wins rings. And this year, in the stock market, defense will keep you alive. It will be the kind of year where making a little money makes you a winner. Think defensively until there are clear signs that the economy is improving.
First, keep your expectations low. No one knows when the current economic cycle will end and begin to heal. What we do know is that all indicators keep going lower: housing starts, employment, consumer spending, housing prices. While the market discounts good news well in advance (some 6 to 9 months ahead of the real numbers), there's no indication from any front that better days are ahead. We know the new administration will spend money to create jobs so more spending power will be in the economy. We know there will most likely be tax breaks for companies to encourage production and hiring. But none of that is in place. Investors have to wait and see how and if these develop and what effect they will have on the economy and on stocks. It might take all year. Or longer. If it does, the stock market won't be doing too much.
Second, be sure to buy stocks that have plenty of equity and very little debt. While interest rates will most likely stay low for a while (until inflation from too much government spending comes into prices), any company relying too much on debt may need to refinance a large portion of it this year. That refinancing may be impossible in a very tight credit market. Also, too much debt, no matter what the interest rate, takes away cash that companies can use to hire, expand, or pay dividends.
Third, buy stocks with good dividend yields. If a stock goes down 10% in a year but pays a 5% dividend, it cuts the loss in half. Or if it goes nowhere for a year, at least you'll have income while you wait for better days. Be sure the dividend is safe (doesn't take more than 30% of profits to pay). Even better: buy stocks that have increased dividends every year for the last 10 years, through good times and bad.
Fourth, stick with stocks that have a large capital base. Again, that means plenty of equity and not much debt. They'll most likely need to use some equity as things may take longer than anyone can imagine. Companies with small amounts of equity (like homeowners with no savings to pay the mortgage if they lose their jobs) can't weather these economic storms and have very little flexibility. Companies that have a large equity cushion can sustain losses and survive much better than competitors with small equity bases.
Fifth, make some assumptions, not based on the past, but what you think might happen for the next year. Where will interest rates go? Which industries have already discounted the worst scenario and their stocks punished beyond reason? Will oil go back up? Will it go down further? In other words, you need your portfolio to reflect your risk profile as well as your forecast as to what will happen. Since none of us knows for sure what will happen, you won't want to bet the whole portfolio on one stock or one industry. Stay diversified.
Sixth, find stocks that are increasing earnings, even in these terrible times. The best companies always manage to find a way to do that.
Some stock ideas: Abbott Labs (NYSE: ABT), Baxter International (NYSE: BAX), CH Energy Group (NYSE: CHG), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), Coca Cola Co.(NYSE: KO), Colgate Palmolive (NYSE: CL), General Mills (NYSE: GIS), H.J. Heinz (NYSE: HNZ), Hewlett Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ), Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Nike (NYSE: NKE), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC).
Don't rush out and buy any or all of these. You haven't done any research yet. Besides, there's plenty of time. This stock market has no catalysts in sight that will spark a sustaining rally. Which brings me to the last point: when you decide to buy a stock or several of them, buy only a small amount, then wait for a day or two to add to the position. With the volatility in this market, prices change dramatically, giving patient investors multiple opportunities to buy at lower levels. Don't be in a hurry. There's plenty of time. And with quality names like those above, once you own them, be reluctant to sell. You're getting them on sale.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-28-2008 @ 12:13PM
al hadley said...
the problem with the economy, it's started with the housing and it grew to where it is. The feds should lower the rate on owner occupied homes for new homes to 3% and give the banks, who make the loans a credit of 2% instead of pouring the money in the banking system.
12-28-2008 @ 8:39PM
Charles J. Crider said...
With respect to the financial crisis which we are facing, the goverment should reward success, achievement, responsibility, hard work and self reliance not failure, under achievement, irresponsibility and dependence. The goverment should not reward poor performance, irresponsibility and mismanagement by supporting financial institutions, businesses, or individuals that have demonstrated the inability to act responsibly. Rewarding the irresponsible only punishes the responsible.
12-28-2008 @ 9:01PM
Edgar said...
It's refreshing to see and read about common sense in an uncertain world. Too many people today are worried about everything, because most of them have had everyone else do everything for them, especially the government. We must start taking charge of our own lives with confidence, if we are to see this thing through.
12-29-2008 @ 5:44AM
Alfred Schrader said...
There are tons of gold collecting dust in Fort Knox which is what your money will do if you invest it in gold, collect dust.
And the dust is actually more valuable because you can add fertilizer to it & grow herbs, something actually useful...alfredschrader@aol.com
12-29-2008 @ 7:33AM
CEO'S AT FAULT said...
CEO'S MISMANAGE THERE BANK ACCTS , GIVEN THERESELVES MILLION /BILLION DOLLAR RAISES , WANT THE TAXPAYERS BAIL
THEM OUT , ALL ON A BANDWAGON , THEY'RE THE ONLY ONES
TO BLAME THERESELVES...........THERE FAULT , STOP GIVING
THERE SELVES BONUSES .......STOP THERE ASSESTS , PROPERTY ,
ETCCCC , PUT THE MONEY OF CEO'S IN THE CORPORATE ACCTSS
AND STOP THIS "GOLDEN PARACHUTES" . THIS IS THE "ONLY REASONS
WHY THE COMPANIES ARE IN THIS SHAPE .
12-29-2008 @ 9:00AM
David said...
Wall Street predators and manipulators are keeping a low profile until after the year end. They want to take another 25% of your 401k or anything else they can get their hands on. Cash is the only safe place to be because Wall Street cannot make it disapper.
12-29-2008 @ 1:13PM
mick said...
PUY YOUR MONEY INTO GOLD AND GET READY TO BUY AMERO'S THE DOLLAR IS DEAD.
12-29-2008 @ 1:58PM
Harley Clarke said...
If you are not out yet, get out now.
Buy back at 6200.
12-29-2008 @ 7:55PM
Chrissy said...
Thanks for that book! Recently I read a book called The Worst Kind of Lies by John Patrick Lamont that helped me in investing. I was worried about scams, and came across this book, and found out it's a trilogy.
It's a mystery about corporate deceit, betrayal and even Murder. You can find more info about this book at http://www.jpatricklamont.com
Enjoy!
1-03-2009 @ 4:53AM
gustongroves said...
Thanks for the post and advice. I think that’s the way investors should be and the things would go in a better manner in regard to stock market.
http://shortcuttoprofits.com
1-03-2009 @ 12:58PM
Dave said...
I have 1,000 to trade with and just starting. I need to consider the fees so have picked 3 stocks. They are LLY, WMT, and PG. Do these seem safe to you as a place to start?
1-30-2009 @ 4:25PM
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