Actually, where is has been going is down for most of the past year. As the following two year chart clearly indicates, it is down about 75% from it's high and selling near half the price of its IPO.



Among the obvious questions I asked, I wanted to find out if they could sustain the yield which seemed like it would come under pressure based on ATN earnings of $2.38 over the last 4 quarters. Unlike a REIT the company is not required to distribute 90% of its profits, although it seems to have maintained that the past year. They will be announcing the next distribution in late January 2009.

From my view this is a highly speculative stock but if the yield were cut in half, and considering that it is a tax advantaged payment, I would still think it worthy of consideration. Here is the distribution history from the company web site:

Record	Declared	Payable	Amount	Type
11/10/08	10/29/08	11/14/08	$.61	Regular Cash
08/06/08	07/22/08	08/14/08	$.61	Regular Cash
05/07/08	04/22/08	05/15/08	$.59	Regular Cash
02/07/08	01/28/08	02/14/08	$.57	Regular Cash
11/07/07	10/23/07	11/14/07	$.55	Regular Cash
06/26/07	06/14/07	08/14/07	$.43	Regular Cash
05/08/07	04/26/07	05/15/07	$.43	Regular Cash
02/07/07	01/24/07	02/14/07	$.06	Regular Cash

Unlike a manufacturer that often reports order backlog there is no such thing for an exploration company. Brian Begley did tell me that their pool of individual investors numbered 40,000 in its syndicated drilling programs including some major institutions and hedge funds (would be true for almost any stock). They invest through an affiliated company, Atlas Energy that sponsors and manages tax-advantaged investment partnerships, to finance the exploration and development of it's acreage in the Appalachian Basin. I asked what percentage of investors were repeat clients but he did not have that data. I think they should.

The higher the percentage the better it would be if you were concerned about cash flow in these troubled times and being able to maintain the exploration side of the equation. The company continues to report net earnings over 20% despite the fact that ATN fell short of analysts expectations quarter after.

What might be most important despite the stocks fall in 2008, cash flow and earnings are both up year over year.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I do not own the stock as of this writing but I may acquire it in the near future.