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Stocks are looking good today, but...

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You know, I was really hoping to buy some Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) today. I really was. In fact, I was even thinking about CBS Corporation (NYSE: CBS), Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), and News Corp. (NYSE: NWS). These are all stocks that have been beaten down in 2008 and that I feel may rise if 2009 is a good year. I mean, in an existential sense, you figure that '09 is going to be a better year.

If only it were that easy. Out of all the stocks I mentioned above, Microsoft was the one I was considering the most. Yet, I just can't take the plunge. As of this writing, according to AOL quotes, Microsoft has traded about 26 million shares, and is up 3.9%. That puts it at over $20 per share, a level I was hoping to buy under (hey, I know that shouldn't matter, but I guess I'm as prone to psychology as everyone else). I was kind of hoping that maybe Microsoft would be down today on low volume; instead, it is up on low volume (the 30-day average for volume is close to 80 million shares). That would have given me a little more confidence in the trade. I just have this feeling that stocks may go down once the real trading begins next week, and the volume hopefully comes back. Obviously, Wall Street hasn't exited holiday mode just yet. But, the flip side is I'm wrong and stocks rally from here upward, and I become too afraid to buy Microsoft in the mid-$20's. Or, worse, I'm too afraid not to, and get in at a high price.

So, as you can see, I really don't know what's going to happen. I want to buy stocks today in case things go higher, but I'm not sure that will happen. What do you do in this case? Although it hurts, you do nothing. Thankfully, I have resisted giving in to emotion and buying just for the sake of buying (and I came close). I may end up being wrong about Microsoft, but that's okay. It may give me opportunities later in the year. For now, I think I made the correct choice, especially in front of a weekend.

Disclosure: I don't own any stock mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: July 09, 2009: 10:00 PM

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