Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth and Sleep Well at Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.
Several responses to my columns on 2009 expectations and how to invest for the year have been totally negative. They claim I'm too optimistic. The only way to survive is to buy gold. America is finished. The new administration is socialism. The American capitalist system is done. These readers are not students of history.
America is built on hopes and dreams, fueled by Darwinian survivors of other countries with enough energy and nerve to come to a land of freedom where their dreams can become real. We have been peopled by brave and strong immigrants who gave up everything to have the chance for a better life for themselves and their children.
Initially they came from England, but as word spread of a new country with great opportunity, they arrived from Ireland, Italy, Germany, Poland, Spain, everywhere and anywhere. Now they're coming from China, Mexico, India and the Middle East with many on a waiting list as our shores can't absorb everyone at once. The list is long with great people anxious to be free and to pursue their dreams. They want to be Americans.
There is no other country like ours on so many levels. The fact that every four years the people get to vote for a leader and the vote prevails is still relatively new. Sure, other countries have a democratic system, but America is the strongest, greatest country in the world. How easy it would be to try to become a dictator when you hold the reins of power. Not gonna happen here. Too many checks and balances on that power.
The fact that we just voted an African American as president speaks volumes to the evolution of the country as more inclusive, more color blind than ever. Equality for all people got a boost from that election. Everyone is waiting to see how well President-elect Obama's policies will work, but the sense is that almost everyone is willing to give him a chance. Maybe some of his programs won't work. Hopefully some of them will. At least, he's willing to try something new.
Sure, those programs will cost money, lots of money. But if the money is invested rather than simply spent, the return in the form of more tax revenues (not necessarily always at higher tax rates) will pay for them. No one wants to increase the U.S. debt levels. That isn't wise. But sometimes, when events conspire to collapse our economic way of life, unusual and extreme measures are necessary. We've had it before, and when FDR took office many cried "socialist," even "communist," because the government was spending huge amounts of money to help the private sector. The WPA (Works Project Administration) put people to work at jobs that seemed made up at the time. There is still evidence of that work today in the form of art, bridges, and roads.
Therein lies the real key to the current economic dilemma: jobs. There have to be jobs so people can collect a paycheck which allows them to spend. And the jobs need to be somewhat secure so that buying a house or a car that requires payments is psychologically realistic. It's not just about having a job. It's about knowing the job will be there so that future commitments can be made.
Once the jobs are created, through public spending as well as through tax cuts for corporations which can then hire more people, more spending can occur. There's some questioning of the wisdom of giving corporate tax cuts, that a better way is to give taxpayers tax cuts of $500 or $1,000. That's a short term solution. That money is only a temporary boost for the individual. Better that corporations have continued tax relief to hire permanently. If there were a tax cut for companies, it could be tied directly to hiring. The more people a company hires, the higher the tax benefit.
What does all this have to do with investors? Everything. American investors have always been risk takers, just as their ancestors were when they headed for these shores. Without risk takers, there would be no companies, no capital for growth. Investors still need to be willing to risk their investment dollars, only now they need to be cautiously risky. This is not the time to bet on an idea with lots of sizzle. Now investors need to focus on stocks that are more than surviving. They're thriving in a difficult time. When the economy recovers, they most likely will do even better.
And diversification is still needed. Buying gold or real estate is probably a good idea, especially if inflation comes roaring back after all the government expenditures are in the system. But keep them as part of a full investment portfolio. Stocks and bonds are important for any successful investment strategy, even if stocks were pounded this year.
This past year was rough, but like one robin doesn't make a spring, one bad year doesn't make forever. Look back at history, both economic and political, especially in the United States. We're a nation that goes to extremes, pulls back and then rallies ever higher. And I have every faith we will again. Hey, this is America.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
1-04-2009 @ 11:08AM
Bobby said...
Your "hope springs eternal" analogy is admirable but history isn't always the leading indicator of the future. One metric is the enormity of our aquired debt which has to be responded to in the form of "forgiveness" or as an instrument of incoming higher collosal tax payments. The debt during FDR's stint was in relative billions & well within the reach of being paid back through a growing GDP. Our debt now dwarfs our means of restitution in a "shrinking" economy with nothing but spending on the horizon. Unless our economy rebounds in a very large way our ability to even pay the interest on indebtedness will bury us even more. Our past history does not account for modern day debt standards,, it's a new beast. The beast is growing & growing & growing....
1-04-2009 @ 11:47AM
Bill Burns said...
Re. your comment.....'intially they came from England...!' What about Scotland? England, technically, ceased to exist in 1603 when James VI of Scotland ascended Elizabeth's vacated throne and became King of Great Britain as James VI and I. Afterwards came Ireland and the United Kingdom was born.
And being an economist, what about Adam Smith and whwere he came from?
Tsk, tsk.
1-04-2009 @ 12:56PM
Don said...
Giving more tax cuts to corporations won't create jobs per se. Companies hire because demand is there and they need workers. If those conditions don't exist, the tax breaks won't go to hiring, no matter what. Meanwhile, wage earners pay far higher tax rates than paid by shareholders on capital gains and dividend income. If there's money available for more tax cuts, those cuts should go to workers, not investors.
1-04-2009 @ 12:59PM
Mike said...
You don't have to be a student of history to see the train wreck coming. The American capitalist system is broken, America is out of money, and the Fed sure doesn't care about the coming collapse of the dollar. The government is trying to re-inflate a bubble which now has more holes in it than swiss cheese. No company or bank should ever, ever be bailed out. You're right when you said that no other country is like ours on so many levels but that isn't really a good thing. Charles Manson was also unlike other people on so many levels. And if you think America is the greatest country on Earth, than you need to travel more. America might have been the strongest and most powerful country in the world but that will be quickly changing. The hopes and dreams of Americans are being crushed (if they haven't been already). As much as I love America, I moved out and I suggest that other Americans do the same because when the dust settles, The USA is going to be the only country down for the count. The Bush Administration and the Fed has broken our country beyond repair. If you think the past year was rough, wait till 2009 is over. When one is driving a car or even simply going from one point to another, it's always better to look ahead rather than behind. Hey! This is America, run for your life because nothing in history can be compared to the nightmare that's is here and will be coming!
1-04-2009 @ 1:14PM
Duke said...
Um, NAFTA, GATT and other trade agreements kind of put the last nail in the coffin. After the last Recession of the early 80's there still were many jobs to go back to after inflation was squeezed out of the economy. Now there is lots of debt and far less means to pay it off. No jobs left, and deflation is a far cry from the last deep recession of the early 80's. How can investing for profit and growth be that invigerating. This is global in scope, and far reaching. There is consumer demand but no means to pay for the goods.
1-04-2009 @ 1:32PM
lance said...
mike my company builds new homes in mass and we sold 8 new homes last year alone go figure. we already have 2 of the 4 we are building under agreement for feb and mar sales dates. i alredy have to find more land to keep going through the year. 2009 is the year we start the comeback. this time next year we will be back on track and flouishing again. i believe barack will take us to new heights. this time when it comes back you'll never see these opportunities again ever. he who hesitates loses !!!!!!!!
1-04-2009 @ 2:22PM
Jim Davis said...
Right on Dude!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
1-04-2009 @ 2:31PM
Gary said...
Allrich is a genius, history in fact does repeat itself. The doomsdayers are the only thing bringing down the economy. 2009 will in fact be better. As Allrich says, his critics should do a little more studying before they decide the fate of all. They speak only for themselves. If they want to remain in gloomy isolation, as for me, time to buy buy buy.......
1-04-2009 @ 2:47PM
Harry Speakup said...
Bush is spending just like Hoover, and it appears Obama will double-down just like FDR. At one point under FDR, the tax rate for those making $25000 or more, was 100%. We went thru 12 years of the GREAT DEPRESSION, but it was WWII that got us back on track. Brother, can you spare a dime???
1-04-2009 @ 4:07PM
Martin said...
I think the answer for the future of the United States lies somewhere in between the worst case and a new brighter future. Things have been bad at different times and this time things certainly look pretty bad, however there is an untold matrix of directions this country can go. In order to remain competitive in the world we need something to sell the world that it is willing to buy. We cannot ship off the manufacturing to China and expect to profit from the exercise. We do not have many natural resources to exploit such as oil for export so for the time we have left we need to consider how best to change the current plan to accomodate the future. Worst case is 40% of the population farming to feed the world. Gross margins will be minimal but it will allow at least to feed the domestic population. Transportation will need to be electrified. Not necessarily cars but trains to transport the food to the cities. As the cost of energy increases the development and manufacture of cheap electrical appliances (solar panels, etc) will be a possible export or domestic product. If oil runs out of becomes too expensive, forget exporting too much stuff and focus on domestic needs. Now what will the average American do for money? Not sure, perhaps farm and manufacture solar panels. That is for the natural business cycle to decide and balance. Can this all be done? I don't know, but sure hope so for the sake of my children and grandchildren.
1-04-2009 @ 6:43PM
Al Schrader said...
DON- I think you are mistaken. Corporations pass on expenses like taxes, etc. onto the consumers that buy their products (you & me). We need to eliminate taxes on corporations & business. When prices of the products don't skyrocket, people will buy more & create demand & more jobs.
America is still a nation of the strong & working together WE generate prosperity.....alfredschrader@aol.com
1-04-2009 @ 7:26PM
Roneddie said...
Yes, the good ol' US of A is one of a kind, but it has lost it's way in the past few decades. Consequently, our current mess. Taking government support, personal and corporate, used to be a embarrassment. Now it's the accepted driver for the entire economy and the NYSE. Yet, even in the face of more and more "chickens coming home to roost", we've elected an administration that only promises an expansion of these failed policies. Sooner or later, probably sooner, somethings gotta give. Is it too late to change? Maybe not. But, in my opinion, critical mass isn't too far away.
1-04-2009 @ 7:46PM
Sky said...
Times have changed since FDR was around. American companies were not out sourcing jobs to other countries and half of the american companies are now owned by foreign investors. The United States government didn't owe Trillions to China. Our ports were run by american companies but now are owned by China. Things are not as rosy as they seem.
1-04-2009 @ 7:52PM
jerry said...
So many issues.
You must produce more than you consume to grow.
People must have money to buy.
too much friviolus stuff to buy.
World over population.
something is wrong when money people can make money whether stocks go up, dow or stay static. All the people in the world forget who helped them. be it diaster recovery or finding thier oil and helping them out of tents in the deserts to a completly supported society. Worse are the countries that kept the wealth for the few despots in charge.
1-04-2009 @ 7:56PM
Daniel Lovejoy said...
Sometimes chicken little is right. When fannie mae and freddie mac start the forclosures again, when the us runs out excuses for injecting money against the taxpayers wishes into wall street and the stock exchange, when the unemployment rate hits 8% - it will seem like the sky is falling for most of america.
1-04-2009 @ 9:50PM
Todd Trueset said...
compassion is the worlds richest energy source.guide yourself forward spending your resourcesses heart felt wisely your returns will land in your lap beyond your belief trust and this will happen for you !
1-04-2009 @ 10:35PM
jmjmosley said...
Like most Americans my ancestors came from the U.K.My Father's people came to North America in 1635 . My Mother's came from Scotland and Ireland in 1700. People like my ancestors made this country. It is not perfect, no country is, but we are a hell of a lot better than the rest of the world. Yhis is truely the Land of Oppurtunity.
1-04-2009 @ 10:38PM
Jacque said...
Al Schrader is absolutely correct !
1-05-2009 @ 12:06AM
Johnny said...
WPA was the Works Progress Administration, not Works Project Administration. I'm not one to nit-pick, but your column is the third time I've seen this mistake.
On a humorous note, the WPA was also referred to as We Piddle Around, due to the make-work nature of the program.
1-05-2009 @ 2:32AM
Buster said...
jmjmosley,
Don't you just love it when the new third world immigrants come in- legally or not- and claim equal credit with our ancestors for building the USA ?
Don't you love it even more when the politicians agree with this lie to get their votes?
And if you don't agree, it makes you a racist?