Cramer on BloggingStocks: Cramer bullish on the Dow for '09 -- Part I

The other imponderable is unemployment. We are blessed with a new president who has an understanding of economics and recognizes that there is an "all bets are off" level of unemployment -- a 10% job loss -- that would render many of my predictions too bullish. I believe, though, that 10% can be taken off the table with aggressive stimulus and a big tax credit for housing (also part of my housing-bottom thesis) as well as a weak dollar, all of which I believe is in the cards but not in the stocks.

So I am using a positive prism in my bottom-up analysis, particularly because it looks as though we were more victimized by tax-loss selling and hedge fund closings than we had been in years. I believe that abatement more than offsets the belief from individuals that the market has become corrupt and that buying stocks is simply not investing anymore but pure gambling.

I am also factoring in the 3.6% average dividend yield of the 30 stocks, something that's of immense help when you are starting from such a low level -- the Dow lost 34% last year. And every bit of percentage matters.

This brings us to my total for 2009. My analysis brings me to a 13.1% gain for the Dow 30 in 2009 from the 2008 close and a 9.8% gain from Friday's close. Also, we are not piercing 10,000 with this analysis, so some would say this is not much to write about. I say, better than a sharp stick in the eye.

As a reminder, my predictions were based on the existing 30 components of the Dow. That includes General Motors (NYSE: GM) (Cramer's Take), whose equity has become irrelevant, and Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (Cramer's Take), another incredibly shrinking stock, which may also be replaced by a stronger company before the year is through.

Cramer's 2009 Dow Outlook Company Target 2008 Close % Change Dow Point Change AA $15.00 $11.26 24.93% 29.8 AXP $22.00 $18.55 15.68% 27.5 T $35.00 $28.50 18.57% 51.8 BAC $18.00 $14.08 21.78% 31.2 BA $42.00 $42.67 -1.60% -5.3 C $9.00 $6.71 25.44% 18.2 Source: TheStreet.com

With that, let's take a look at each of the stocks in the Dow 30.

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Alcoa: This company requires a major turn in the world's economic fortunes, and I don't see it happening in time to save the company's dividend or maybe even its coveted position in the Dow. Its high debt load doesn't help.

There are two hopes here:

• China comes back, boosting aluminum demand.
• The company's equity shrinks to such a level that Alcoa is at last taken over.

The China boom, I believe, will actually be a reality, judging by the swing up in copper, the bottoming in the Baltic Freight rates and subsequent rally, a potential for interest rates to be cut in half, and a stimulus program that might be equal to 20% of the country's GDP. (I am buying a Chinese ETF in Action Alerts PLUS to take advantage of all of these positives in a market that was down 60% last year.)

With all of those goodies, you could see Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) (Cramer's Take) effect, a stock that rallies hard after a dividend cut, and a potential for the stock to rally to $15. If credit markets come back, it would not be surprising if we saw someone take a swing at Alcoa, but I am not counting on it, so $15 it is.

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American Express (NYSE: AXP) (Cramer's Take): It is hard for me to believe, with the credit markets frozen and with individuals being strapped and the poorly managed nature of the company -- going full bore into consumer lending just at the absolute wrong time -- that American Express can do much of anything. But it has TARP money, and that will allow it to get through this terrible period.

I also believe that the consumer, once buoyed by a better stock market and a stabilizing house price, will do some spending per the nationwide wealth improvement. It could go back to $22, a decent return, and the dividend is not in jeopardy because of TARP's easy terms. What a shame that management got into consumer lending at the top of the cycle. The government's bailout will let it ride through the tough period, though.

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AT&T (NYSE: T) (Cramer's Take): This is one of my favorite stocks in the Dow and one that I suspect can raise its dividend again in 2009. And that dividend will be very, very valuable as a source of protection for the equity in a world starved for yield. I believe the stock will trade back under a 5% yield and could see it rallying to $35, where all the fears were first voiced that the dividend and the pension woes would compromise things.

Randall Stephenson, the CEO, is very aggressive; remember, he did the Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) (Cramer's Take) iPhone deal sight unseen, and that could produce still more market-share gains. The man is not to be underestimated. My target price will be too low if Sprint (NYSE: S) (Cramer's Take) fails; AT&T and Verizon (NYSE: VZ) (Cramer's Take) would have a field day splitting up the country. Its U-Verse TV gambit is working out well, too.

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Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take): This company's dividend seems to be very much in doubt, and CEO Ken Lewis has truly bet the company on a turn in housing for 2009. I believe housing will turn, but not before I see much more pain for shareholders, as this company has so much exposure to the consumer -- which truly worries me -- although I like the Merrill acquisition very much. I prefer JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) in the Dow as a way to play any stabilization in banks.

When TARP was first proposed, when you could sell whole loans to the federal government, this stock took off, deservedly so. Now its bad loans could swamp the equity. The stock is telegraphing a rough road ahead. But by year-end, with real estate bottoming and house-price depreciation stopping - remember, I am saying that we could get a bottom in housing by June 30 -- and with aggressive staff cuts at Merrill Lynch and an improvement in the servicing business it got at Countrywide, you could see a post-dividend-cut rally to $18.

I am feeling even more optimistic about this stock after Steve Mnuchin, a bright guy I have followed for years, decided, with some other smart fellas, to buy Indymac, a terrible lender. I also like the California market after visiting the hardest-hit area, the Palm Springs part of the Inland Empire, in November, and finding very little for sale. That was when rates were at 6%, albeit with the average home falling about 40%. The rates, the price cuts, the lack of new building, will mean that California is back. And with it will be this stock. I also believe that China will rally hard and that Bank of America will be able to make a lot of money with the TARP money it invested there, although that was a pretty darned outrageous bet.

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Boeing (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take): Other than General Motors, this is the stock I am most concerned about in the Dow Jones average, even more than Alcoa. I know the company just raised its dividend by 5%, but I believe that was a major mistake, and the company should have preserved cash. It would not surprise me if Boeing didn't have to cut the darned thing next year because of its labor problems and order cancellations -- let alone problems building its new planes.

However, the recent decline in oil has given the airlines new life, and with that, the possibility of a level of solvency that will give this company a second wind in the second half of the year. I believe it will give up its early gains in the year and trade back to lows where it will be a buy up to $42 by year-end. Estimates are way too high, so I would sell it into this rally and pick it up lower later in the year.

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Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take): The government's plan to bolster Citigroup's capital should work, and I find it the best of the TARP investments because it gives investors some upside along with the government. Citigroup didn't get killed like the other major investments, as this could easily have been an AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take) if the government wanted it to be, if not a Lehman, although the feds figured out that Lehman was not such a great idea, literally a few hours after it said a rescue wasn't possible. Of course, we know anything is possible.

Under CEO Vikram Pandit, who still has not been there a year, the company has shrunk the balance sheet dramatically, and it will continue to do so. I believe that there are a ton of asset sales ahead. But it has a huge exposure to the consumer. It can rally to where the government's warrants kick in. I see it going to $9 but not much further, unless head count shrinks to 300,000 from 360,000 and the credit markets start a bit of a revival. Again, percentage-wise, that makes the stock a buy, but not as much as one for JPMorgan Chase.

Be sure to check back all week for the rest of Jim Cramer's 2009 predictions for the Dow components.

Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long JPMorgan Chase, Freeport-McMoRan and the iShares FTSE/Xinua ETF.