After the dot-com implosion, there was much talk about the death of the venture capital (VC) industry. And, while there was some pain, many firms survived. But the death may have only been delayed.
VCs need to generate substantial returns for their investors. Even though there have been some winners – such as Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) – there hasn't been enough activity. Simply put, the IPO market continues to deteriorate and M&A transactions are trailing off. Hey, there were only six VC-backed IPOs in 2008.
So, with thousands of VC firms in the market, it appears that the industry is poised for a Darwinian shakeout, according to the FT.
However, this doesn't mean that VC fundings will go dry. Basically, top firms will continue to do deals, but the approach will be more cautious and certain categories will get starved (such as social media and Web 2.0).
What are some hot spots? Well, according to the NY Times, the areas include web-based software, cloud computing, virtualization, open source and clean tech. Also, new companies will need to go beyond advertising revenues and expand their business models to areas like subscriptions.
Yes, as the recession continues, expect fewer free Net services.
Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook
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