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Can Bob Iger really turn Disney's stock around?

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I was reading an article from Fortune yesterday about Disney (NYSE: DIS) and Bob Iger. When I got to the end of it, I had the biggest feeling of deja vu that I had ever experienced. Yes, I had heard it all before.

You've heard it all before, too, I'm willing to bet. Here's the basic gist of the piece: Bob Iger knows what he's doing. He's a genius. He's a creative powerhouse, a business wunderkind, a man who has studied the Disney brand, knows it inside and out, and is capable of leveraging that brand over multiple platforms to create immense economic value for shareholders. You know the examples,: you've got your Jonas Brothers, your Miley Cyrus, your Zac Efron and the whole High School Musical gang migrating from Disney Channel to concert stages to DVD releases to the silver Iger was the prescient exec who realized that Pixar should be acquired (take that, Michael Eisner!).

Only problem is, none of this seems to be working. I base this statement on the fact that Disney really hasn't broken out of a really long-term range. I honestly have to wonder if shareholders will ever see Disney at better than $50 per share in their lifetime. I can't be the only one wondering this. That's why I get a little annoyed when I read puff pieces like this one on Iger. Is he really that much of a visionary? And is he doing anything that original? Did he invent the concept of synergy? As far as I know, he did not. One of the main points of the article centered on the major franchises that Disney has going for it. Just once, I'd love to hear about Disney's plans to take one of its existing Disney Channel properties that has not hit franchise status and turn it into the next Hannah Montana phenomenon. To be fair, there may have been a few articles here and there on the subject, but none have studied it to my satisfaction, certainly.

I know Iger is facing a tough time with the recession, but let's be honest: those who have owned Disney stock for a very long time know firsthand how tough the market has been on the shares over the years. They go up, they go down, but they haven't broken long-term resistance. When was the last time the stock saw $40 per share? It's been a while. And while I feel that Disney may be a decent trade here, I'm not so sure I have overwhelming confidence in Iger as far as the long-term thesis goes.

Yes, I've heard it all before. Iger is the man with the golden synergistic touch. But until the stock finally gets past $40 per share (and stays past that level), I don't think I'll sing his praises.

Disclosure: I am a Disney shareholder that is rapidly losing his patience; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 11, 2009: 03:24 AM

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