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Tell-tale stat: Manhattan apartment sales decline for 4th straight quarter

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It looks like the nation's last hold-out -- the last bastion of the housing bubble, if you will -- has finally started to burst. Or at least deflate.

Manhattan, which remains, despite the nation's decade of policy errors, the capital of the world, registered its fourth straight quarterly decline in apartment sales in Q4 2008, according to research compiled by Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate (pdf).

Transactions in Q4 2008 fell 9.4% from a year ago to 2,282, Prudential said. Further, while the median price of all units (new and existing) rose 5.9% to $900,000, the median price for re-sale properties fell 3.6% to $732,500. Luxury unit prices fell 3.9% to $4.13 million

Just as telling: inventories have soared. Listings increased 39.3% to 9,081 units compared to a year ago, with the average days a listing was on the market before sale rising to 159 days, from 131 days a year ago.

Driven by record investment banking / financial sector salaries and bonuses, and by creative mortgage forms, New York City's real estate market, specifically the borough of Manhattan, experienced "a 5-year period of clearly unsustainable price gains," so says economist Peter Dawson. Manhattan, he says, was able to hold on in 2007 as the housing slump devastated prices in the U.S., particularly in the California, Southwest U.S., and Florida markets, but the financial crisis that depleted New York's investment banking employee ranks is finally showing up in Manhattan's residential real estate market, he said.

"The bonuses are lower now than they were during the five-year boom, and most significantly, there are tens of thousands of fewer, high-end investment banking professionals running around Manhattan with their bonus checks, ready to buy an apartment," Dawson said. "Some thought Manhattan would be immune to the housing slump. It's not. The housing bust has hit Manhattan."

How long will the Manhattan slump last? While underscoring that real estate market analysis is not his forte, Dawson said the New York market "will need at least a year or a year and a half to bottom, if past cycles are any indicator." After that, price recovery in New York, as in most regions of the country, will hinge on the city's ability to attract new jobs and/or new sectors.

Housing Sector Analysis: While New York provides another data pointing regarding the U.S. housing recession, Manhattan may not be the best barometer of the sector's recovery timetable. First, the California / Florida slumps started earlier, so those markets should recover sooner. Second, three of Manhattan's major industries - - finance, media/publishing, and advertising - - are undergoing structural changes, and whether these sectors will be net-positive jobs in the next decade remains an open question. Hence, the shape of those fields, and the city's success at attracting new jobs, will have much to say regarding the direction of real estate prices in the years ahead.
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Last updated: November 14, 2009: 09:14 PM

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