Two Tuesday Tells: Toyota (TM), Mosaic (MOS)

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Jeff Macke.

Good Morning from New York, where the coffee is thick as mud and only slightly less bitter than the news from Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM). The Japanese automaker said it would be shutting down production for 11 days in the face of falling demand. There are also unconfirmed reports that Japan's finest will dump its planned expansions in Russia and Thailand, which I view as "good news" and "bad news," respectively.

Toyota shook off horrible sales reports yesterday. but there's only so much shaking it can do. These reports are like the straws on a camel's back...too many and eventually the load becomes too great. So is the straw that breaks the camel's back factored in to Toyota's stock? Watch TM today.

Your other tell du jour is The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) which is slightly higher pre-market after reporting last night. Mosaic posted an earnings beat and horrific outlook. That outlook is one traders should be expecting from most, if not all, of the Global Growth names which have been rallying sharply of late after crashing in '08. Have traders looked past the earnings slump this year or are they in denial about just how bad it's going to get? The guess here is "probably a little denial and a touch of forward looking."

Whatever your guess, the trading in Toyota and Mosaic today will offer a decent near-term trading tell for how stocks on the bleeding edge of the demand collapse.