What if 10 million vehicles sales is the new normal?

Doug, it's even worse than you think. In 1980, the last year auto sales were this bad, the US had over 50 million fewer people! If you compensate for that this year's sales are much worse than 1980.

I do think you are on to something about the total market for new cars. I'm over 60 so I remember when everyone bought a car every couple of years or so because that's all they were good for. Styling changes were significant and there was a stigma about driving an old car. And cars got old fast. In the sixties, for example, you were lucky to get 70,000 miles on a car before you had to rebuild the engine.

A lot of cars with over 60,000 miles on then weren't safe to take on long trips lest they crap out. It was relatively rare for a car to be on the road with much more than 100,000 miles. Car manufacturers used to put people on TV who had 150,000 miles on their cars as spokesmen.

Nowadays, even American made (isn't it a shame that it has to be said that way?) cars can last well over 200,000 and provide much more reliability. And that mindset is about keeping up with the Joneses is waning. People seem more intent on keeping their cars longer to get the most for their buck.

Another factor I have not heard mentioned is the return to fewer cars per family to escape high insurance costs and excessive property taxes.

By the way, when I walked to school in three feet of snow it was uphill both ways. LOL

I agree completely with the last poster. I'm 38 and used to buy a different car about every 2-3 years. I've driven the same F-150 truck for the past 9 years now and it has 202,000 miles on it. I love thinking that every month I drive it saves me 400 dollar payment. If I were driving a new truck today I'd lose my house or couldn't pay my bills. Money is tight, insurance is outta this world and I don't see anything getting better soon. I'll just keep driving a old truck that keeps on truckin!

Aside from the costs factors, another reason for "keeping a car longer" is the cost of insurance.

A year or two ago, in Dade County Florida, it was reported that a full 50% of the cars on the road in that County were not insured as mandated by Law. Teh car owners would take out insurance to get the license plates and then default on the premiums.

This situation is bound to increase with the increasingly hard economic times.

So, the chances of being in an accident with an uninsured mortorists is bound to substantially increase under these situations.

Wouldn't it be better to drive a car longer and "bank" what it would have costs for monthly car payments until one absolutely needs to buy a new car? That would increase one's cash reserves (if you can afford to save the money), and it provides somewhat of a backup "self insurance" or fund for buying a new car.

Driving a new car might be nice and chic; but is it practical during these difficult economic times, is it? The new philosophy may shift from "keeping up with the 'Jones'" to buidling financial security . . . cold hard cash.

People may begin to become a lot more practical in regard to their living standards and financial security.

The new reality is that for the middle class, people no longer buy a new car because they "Want One", They only buy new cars because the "Need One". Cars are not assets, they are liabilities! Don't turn you "Cash to Trash". You'll hate the new car the day after the first car payment statement is in your mailbox!!!!

Ironically the only people who constantly buy new cars every couple of years or so are owners of super luxury cars like BMW 7's or upper grade Mercedes and Lexus.

Why? Because these cars have so many high tech gizmos which have untested durability that replacement of these items, should they go bad after the warranty would be too big a pill to swallow.
A lot of people who buy cars like these replace them before the warranty expires.

This has led to a situation where the resale value of these cars is abysmil due to the risk of high repair costs.