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Fed expects unemployment rise into 2010; GDP to fall in 2009

Posted Jan 7th 2009 2:15PM by Lita EpsteinLita Epstein RSS Feed
Filed under: Forecasts, Market Matters, Money and Finance Today, Federal Reserve, Financial Crisis


Media outlets all over the Internet are screaming this morning about the minutes from last month's Federal Reserve meeting, which were released yesterday. The discussion from that meeting shows that the Federal Reserve Board members expect unemployment to rise "significantly" into 2010 and that they believe the gross domestic product (GDP) will fall in 2009.

While most of us hope these dire predictions somehow prove not to be true, deep down we know that the Fed is probably right. No one has called this another Great Depression, but it certainly looks more and more like what happened in the 1930s. Our financial institutions need bailouts to survive. Job losses continue to mount. At least the banks did get those bailouts so we're not seeing lines of people trying to get money out of banks that can't (as was a common scene during the last depression).

At the Fed meeting, Governors reviewed statistics we already knew that 1.9 million jobs were lost in the first 11 months of 2008 and 475,000 more jobs would be lost in December. Reports today from ADP indicate job losses in December in the private sector may top 690,000. Now that the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates to near 0%, their primary tool has been used up, but they are using other monetary tools to keep cash flowing.

Will Barack Obama's economic stimulus package minimize these stark, depressing projections? Can anything be done to turn this around more quickly than the Fed now predicts? Obama yesterday indicated that deficit spending will be in the trillion dollar range for several years to dig us out of the mess. But, if it is what mess will follow as the baby boomers move into retirement and depend more on federal outlays for Social Security and Medicare?

Lita Epstein has written more than 25 books including, "Surviving a Layoff: A Week by Week Guide to Getting Your Life Back Together."

Tags: featured, federal reserve, FederalReserve, gdp, unemployment

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