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Top Stock Picks '09: Seaspan (SSW)

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This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.

"My pick for the best potential gainer for 2009 is Seaspan Corporation (NYSE: SSW), a company that leases container ships to international shipping companies," says Jack Adamo.

In his Insiders Plus newsletter, he offers an in-depth analysis of what he consider the perceived risks and the real risks that have "pummeled" the stock. The advisor explains, "The stock has been pummeled for five reasons, only one of which is valid:

  • The whole market is down.
  • The Baltic Dry Shipping Index dropped to its lowest level in years.
  • Analysts fear shipping companies may default on their leases in a weak economy.
  • Analysts are afraid ship lessors will have their ships repossessed by lenders on the basis of falling market values of their ships. Some debt covenants permit that.
  • The company has reported horrible earnings the last two quarters.

"Five pretty scare reasons. Why would I consider such a stock? Here's why:

"OK, the market is down. That's a valid reason, but like The South, companies that do well will rise again, eventually. While you're waiting, you'll get a fat dividend.

"The Baltic Dry Index applies to 'spot market' rates. All of Seaspan's ships are pre-leased on long-term contracts. The average length remaining is 7 years on ships operating now, and 11 years on those due for delivery.

"Default on leases? Fully 70% of Seaspan's ships are leased to two huge shipping companies owned by China.

"Yes, China the country that's floating in foreign exchange, will grow 7% this year, and wouldn't dream of risking its new status as an economic power by damaging its credit worthiness. Another 20% are to the world's largest shippers. Default risk is low, and priced in.

"None of Seaspan's ships have debt covenants that allow its lenders to repossess ships based on their asset values.

"Seaspan's recent bad earnings are an accounting anomaly. It has interest rate hedges to assure steady cash flow after paying its variable rate loans. But because some ships haven't been delivered yet, the duration of the hedges can't be exactly matched to the payments.

"That technicality disqualifies the rate swaps from hedge accounting treatment. The value of the swaps goes up and down each quarter, as interest rates move.

"But the swaps will never be sold and continue to do exactly what they're intended to do. So, these swings in value are all completely irrelevant to the company's cash flow.

"There is one real danger, but it's already priced into the stock. All of Seaspan's ships are financed by 60% debt and 40% equity. (Typical for the industry.)

"More than 93% of the debt financing is already locked in. But if the equity markets stay horrible, the company will have to issue more shares than usual to fund the equity portion. That may cause dilution.

"But the stock has been picking up nicely, and should continue to do so as the credit and equity markets stabilize. The shares are yielding nearly 24% now.

"It would take far more dilution than is likely to occur to take that dividend stream into single digits. I think the worst case is a 15% yield when all is said and done."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-223.328,280.74
NASDAQ-49.201,796.52
S&P 500-26.91896.42

Last updated: July 06, 2009: 05:47 AM

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