Shares of the UGG and Teva footwear company had fallen to $80 per share in late October, but lost nearly 50% of its value from there in November.
Considering that the company increased guidance on Oct. 23, this move made little sense.
When I last wrote about DECK in July, shares were trading for more than $100, but well off their highs above $160. At that time, I suggested that investors resist the urge to buy the beaten-down stock, no matter how tempting.
It wasn't that I didn't believe in the potential of the company. Instead, the macro picture being as it was at that time suggested waiting for a better entry point. I thought below $80 would make sense.
I was right about waiting, although I did not think the stock would sink to less than $50 as it did in late November. Obviously something was amiss given that DECK's performance was quite stellar.
This is a growth company in a very poor retail environment and, yet, it is still performing. The stock deserves a medal of honor for doing so if you ask me.
In the announcement in late October, Deckers stated that fourth-quarter revenue and earnings would increase by 52% and 44%, respectively. Analysts expected the company to make $3.84 in the period.
Today analysts expect earnings of $3.92 reflecting the increased guidance. It remains to be seen if the company can meet these expectations, but the mere fact that they could raise guidance in the middle of a storm has to be encouraging.
The stock has recovered from the irrational lows, but still trades for less than $80 per share.
Is Deckers a buy at these prices?
For those that like pictures, a nice reverse head-and-shoulders is forming over the last year in Deckers trade. Such a feature suggests a bullish future.
If the company does indeed make the slightly more than $7 per share in 2008, you are buying the company for just over 11 times trailing earnings. With growth expected in 2009 at 14%, I would view current prices as a bargain.