Those investors, including market absolutists, who interpret the current economic state-of-things as just a typical downturn that a few tax cuts and some good, old-fashioned, free market-based supply side economics can solve, may want to stop reading the economic data points in the months ahead. At least, that's the view of one economist. Nouriel Roubini, the once obscure New York University economics professor, who two years ago predicted the current global financial crisis and recession, said the worst is still ahead for the U.S. economy and for economies around the world.
"In the next few months, the macroeconomic news and earnings reports from around the world will be much worse than expected," Roubini wrote in a column for Bloomberg News, adding that the aforementioned will put downward pressure on prices of risky assets.
Further, Roubini said the U.S. economy will remain in recession through at least the end of 2009, with only a mild recovery starting in 2010 -- with GDP growth in the initial recovery year of 1%. For 2009, Roubini also forecasts continued recessions for the United Kingdom, euro zone, Japan and Canada. Russia will also fall into recession, as will Brazil, and China will experience a hard landing, with growth slowing to 5%, he said. India's economy also will slow substantially.
Soothsayer or sensationalism?
But is Roubini exaggerating the likely depth and length of the recession or is he on the mark regarding U.S. and global economic conditions? BloggingStocks asked two economists, David H. Wang and Peter Dawson, to evaluate Dr. Doom's latest analysis.
Wang said Roubini's analysis has been more-accurate than most economists' he's surveyed. "Roubini's projections about China's economy have been more accurate than my own, and I follow China's economy closely," Wang said. "I did not project nor see the degree to which a slowdown in U.S. imports would slow China's economy."
Dawson said Roubini saw, from a theoretical standpoint, the danger that reckless and destructive leverage posed for the financial system and the global economy before others did.
"A majority of the analysis a year ago was talking about the problem of excess leverage in housing, but Roubini was talking about the abuse of leverage in housing [mortgages], hedge funds [trading], commodities [trading], and private equity [deals driven by fees and the availability of money, not operational metrics] years before anyone else was. The bursting of the housing bubble triggered the financial crisis, but it's been excesses of leverage and debt system-wide that has led to the conditions we face today. So Roubini has been on the mark."
Grading the predictor
On a prediction accuracy scale of 1 to 10 (1 being least, 10 being most or metaphysical certitude), Wang gives Roubini an 8.5; Dawson gives Roubini a 9.
And like Roubini, Wang and Dawson also favor a large U.S. fiscal stimulus package, upwards of $850 billion, along with much more quantitative easing by the Fed, to jump-start demand and get the U.S. economy moving again.
Economic Analysis: Here's hoping Roubini, Wang and Dawson are all wrong. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen doesn't think so: she said this will not be a garden-variety recession. Bottom line: Get the fiscal stimulus package passed and signed into law ASAP, after the inauguration of the new president.
Springtime Budget-Busters -- Savings Experiment
Save on Spring Cleaning With a New Vacuum -- Savings Experiment


Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
1-08-2009 @ 1:34PM
steve said...
Sure, pumping billions into the economy is great if it gets into the hands of the americans, and it won't. Did you or anyone ever stop to think that the bubble, the economy, the housing had to happen. Nobody with a normal salary was able to afford the current prices of housing in the big cities (especially Manhattan where a 1 bedroom is $750,000). Also, gas was over $4.00 a gallon. I think this crisis is what we need. We need everything to set back 5-7 years to a time where people can afford to eat out, to buy a car, to fill their tanks, and to buy property. We need lower prices everywhere and it took whats happening now to bring everything down a notch. We're not done yet. Food, real estate, and gas still needs to come down 20% or more so the average "joe the plumber" can feed his family and buy a home without taking a jumbo loan and maxing out his credit cards.
The other day I was in a deli where a young couple had to use a credit card to buy 2 coffees and a piece of cake for $10. They probably were renting a way over inflated apartment in Manhattan for $3000 a month for a 1 bedroom and eating for cash was not an option. this is what people live like. I saw someone in a supermarket using a credit card for a head of lettuce and a yogurt. Again, things are waaaaay out of proportion to salary versus housing/food. We need this economic upheaval to reset our pricing back a few years. Otherwise my 17 year kid will never be able to buy an apartment unless she's making $250,000 a year out of college. She should be able to buy a 1 bedroom in a good area for $300,000 and not pay $800,000. And she should be able to save enough for a downpayment. these days a downpayment needs to be over $150,000 minimum. so what young couples have that around. Not very many. I hope this makes sence. Lets stop trying to make the economy better. That will only bring higher gas prices, higher food prices, and make the housing market go back up again to obscene prices.
1-08-2009 @ 2:40PM
ed WOOD said...
This is yet another financial crisis engineered by the fed, you can thank them for this crisis as well as all others including the 1st depression.
Funny the author of this article mentions the Fed as if it were a Federal institution with no control or blame for the current crisis. 5 minutes of research will show you that the FED was brought into being, in part by J.P Morgan and is still a private banking institution. The Irs is also a for profit organization for the banksters.
1-08-2009 @ 3:01PM
Jen said...
NWO theorists would say that this "crisis" was engineered by the bankers (the Fed, etc). I would also add that GREED over the last decade, along with Reaganomics (otherwise known as voodoo economics--or 'trickle down' economics) that are just NOT sustainable. The best way for growth is slow and steady, ie sustainable. Trickle down does NOT work, as those at the top want to keep everything that they can. Add Bush tax cuts for the rich and an unneccessary war to the mix and you have the decline of the USA. We are broke, folks! And if you have loads of debt, then you have helped contribute to the problem. We all need to grow up, heed the advice of our elders that lived through the Great Depression, and get our house in order. Start today!
1-08-2009 @ 4:02PM
Basilovecchio said...
I need your help,I believe this is not only accurate but is a valid solution to the housing crisis.And the taxpayer wins!
Please send to millions just so someone can show it is incorrect.Or a million endorse it.
Please have anyone you wish review and edit if you wish.
But for the sake of all PLEASE POST
How about earning $300 billion for health care and Social Security as well as multi-tasking:
1.Firming housing prices,
2.Create affordable housing ,and
3 SOLVING the mortgage crisis.
YEAH BUT HOW COULD THIS REALLY BE POSSIBLE???
NO ONE CAN DISPROVE IT-COULD IT POSSIBLY BE RIGHT????
Feds to announce New Plan:Take Action Now for Troubled Asset Relief ?
Legality and funding of GSE is already in place.
ACTION:Solve $6.1 Trillion crisis without issuing new money and make a profit
for the taxpayers.
RESOLVED:ALL "underwater" loans and foreclosed homes to be purchased at 110% of FAIR MARKET VALUE.
Loan to be marked "paid-in-full"
Purchase will be made with the use of 10 Year US Treasury Bonds at 2.5%.Not with money,but with bonds that become cash in 10 years.
Legislation is already in place for GSE agency to do this and also funding is already approved.
NEW LOAN is a special "EVERYBODY WINS PLAN" loan
A loan that has 10 year fixed payments (120) with a payment of the balance of the loan by a new 30 year fixed mortgage,thereby retiring the 10 Year Bond.
Because of the low cost of the funding(12/31/08 @ 2.08%)now @ 2.5% with the special long term payback "EVERYBODY WINS".
Even the taxpayer!
TERMS FOR THE NEW LOAN:
120 fixed monthly payments that consists of (A) payment of total interest,
(B)15% of principle
; ; (C) 5% taxpayer profit
Payment number 121 is made by a third party lender that will gladly give a new 30 year mortgage
at a fixed rate for the 85% balance,marking the 10 year bond paid-in-full"
Example:$110,000 "EVERYBODY WINS LOAN" to cover home valued at $100,000
A...Total 10 years interest.......... $27,500
B...15% for principle reduction.... .$16,500
C...5%..TAXPAYER PROFIT.....$ 5,500
TOTAL.......................................$49,500
paid by 120 fixed equal payments of $412.50 each. (wow how affordable is a $110,000 mortgage at $412.50/month?)
Then the 10 year treasury bond is paid-in-full since a new 30 year f ixed mortgage is acquired for the $93,500 balance.
To calculate payment for 10 year portion use a factor of 3.75 per $1,000.
Example if loan amount is $274,000;payments of $1027.50.($274 X 3.75 = $1027.50
"EVERYBODY WINS"
LENDERS: cut their losses substantially and go about the business of making money
from what may have been mandatory reserves.
BORROWERS:perhaps,a wrong ,made right?AFFORDABLE HOUSING.And
as a side benefit for the other 90% of homeowners,now prices are not only stabilized at 10% above the "vulture's prices",but also can start to increase in value.
TAXPAYERS :when did you ever get a RETURN ON INVESTMENT?
City and state revenue base,firmed and increased.
THOUSANDS OF BENEFITS CAN BE DETAI LED.
ONE DOWN SIDE- there is no vengence.We can however take the time to discover how this happened ,fix blame,and take action.
------Take Action Now for Troubled Asset Relief of Homeowners!!!
THIS IS MY DREAM HEADLINE,PLEASE MAKE IT PART OF YOURS.LET'S GET A DATE ON THAT HEADLINE,"Feds Announce Plan..."
Best Solutions Fl
Real Estate
9804 S Military Trail E-10,Boynton Beach,Fl 33436
email: bestsolutionsfl@aol.com
Please edit / correct,send me a copy,thank you.
Wed, 24 Dec 2008 7:53 am
Subject: Short add on to Answer to your questions
The MOST difficult part to explain is that NO NEW MONEY is required.The mortgages are converted into bonds.The 10 year Treasury bond.We do not have to go out and sell $6.1 trillion-they are already " purchased" by the lenders.
No inflation,no increase in money supply,its just an already existing asset conversion,just "EVERYBODY WINS".A business plan that stabilizes housing=2 0pricesand makes the mortgage very affordable and creditworthy.
P.S. if rates go up .25 still no problem,change factor by adding $20.10.(120 payments to collect the $2,500 needed to pay increase 10 years interest).Rate on 12/ 30/08 @ 2.08%
Se nt: Tue, 23 Dec 2008 8:10am
Subject : Answer to your questions
Subject: RE: Thanks for your help. Feds to announce Plan
1-08-2009 @ 4:28PM
ATHELSTAN said...
The bible thumping kooks and other evangelical weirdos may have a point after all. Is Armaggedon just around the corner?
1-08-2009 @ 5:40PM
Bill K said...
We still have to go through the credit card crisis. I did an informal survey of people I know and the credit card balances they had were enourmous. These were reasonably successful people with jobs. I shudder to think about the not so successful without jobs.
1-08-2009 @ 4:39PM
BHarrison said...
Well, I would compare it all to the ancient fable about "The King's clothes" where the weaver con man convinced everyone that "only stupid people couldn't see the finery of the King's new clothes . . . so everyone pretended to be able to see the clothes. The downfall of it all was when an innocent child blurted out that "the King has no clothes on . . . and everyone realized that it was true."
Well, that is basically somewhat that happened in the economy. The con men convinced" everyone that the derivatives had inflated values as financial papers. They packaged it all up into neat bundles with hefty price tags, etc., etc., etc. Everyone "pretended" to buy into the claimed values of the "derivatives, the CDSs, the CDCs, the CMOs, etc. Things went along rather merrily until parties started trying to cash in their "investments" . . . and when it was discovered that there wasn't adequate monies to cover the call, the "house of cards" quickly started to tumble down.
And even now, we are "discovering" even more "previously hidden losses" (sic. FRAUDS) . . . and there are projections of even more losses. Of course by now it is all becoming rather obviscated by the collateral failures of other business enterprises . . . before long it will be like trying to "unscramble eggs" or trying to "discover who shot John while the lights were out . . .".
A lot of the delays by the CEOs and corporations is their attempts to delay relevations until they could obviscate and conceal what really happened . . . . they don't want to be sent to prison for the FRAUDS that they orchestrated and perpetuated. AND they are STILL drawing their exorbitant salaries, bonuses, and other compensations in spite of their obvious guilts and responsibilities in these BLATANT FRAUDS.
People simly do not want to have to face the reality of what is occuring. They want to brand anyone who is teeling the truth as being "negative" or a doomsdayer, instead of listening to their advice. It is similar to the guy who provided the SEC with information and documentation about Madoff since 1999 . . . and the SEC ignored him until Madoff's Ponzi scheme collapsed.
The American people had better wake up and realize that the "recovery efforts" are being "gamed" by the FIs and corporations who created the economic collapse of our nation . . . and Congress is playing into their hands (or being bought off).
People we cannot let this continue or our nation is doomed to a horrific economic DEPRESSION . . . everything is ALREADY in motion for this to occur. Ignoring it all is not going to help our nation.
The American people should be "pounding on the doors" of their Congressmen . . . emailing them, telephoning them, FAXING them . . . and demanding FULL DISCLOSURE and TRANSPARENCY for what is going on.
1-09-2009 @ 11:18AM
JP Morgan said...
This whole mess is caused by greed and bad management. Our Congress was paid to look the other way, our President is a puppet, de-regulation let everyone try anything they wanted to do, to get rich, and now we are giving Billions to the same people that caused this. More bad management. What do you think will come from this?
1-09-2009 @ 7:48AM
will said...
You can bet that he voted fore B.O..
1-08-2009 @ 4:54PM
keepitsimple said...
No more derivative accounting. Either an asset has value or it doesn't.
1-08-2009 @ 5:48PM
Paul Del Chiaro said...
The worse is still ahead is correct and right on target unless we change the way we do business, our Federal Government is broke and so are the city and state goverments too!, when unemployment goes up taxes go down, how do you think goverment works?, everything is out of line and has been for many years, it is not that hard to see why we have all these problems, people demand services that are not cheap, we have two wars going on that will continue to draw down all are assets, what will the cost be when they end these wars?, over spending on all these Pork projects keep pumping money into non-profit ideas and the comsumer pays for it, 2009 will be a disaster if we do not make real change, a depression will be next, soup lines etc.
1-09-2009 @ 5:58AM
GCC said...
Enough already, why is the media intent on bringing every negative article to a headline. We all get it, the economy sucks right now. Can't this clown Lazzaro find someone with a positive outlook for 2009. I am not sticking my head in the sand here. I , as well as most everyone who is breathing knows how bad it is, but do we have to be hit over the head with it every day with these types of articles.In this atmosphere I think that good news or potential good news can sell papers to.
1-08-2009 @ 5:01PM
Howard said...
Jen:
Everyone wants to blame one side or the other. You have forgotten Pres Carter's AIDS program paid companies to move thier plants overseas and the Comm Reinvestment Act that obligated the banks to make the subprime loans under Clinton and the Dems killing of the Hagler bill in 2003 that would have stopped the financial meltdown. FYI the Iraq war has been cheaper both in lives and in dollars than Vietnam was.
1-08-2009 @ 5:50PM
fairytalesforever said...
It's a BRAVE! new world!. Who said? you can't get any thing new out of these [this] Things?.
Not I !. North America : about every imaginable : Foul up , screw up, that has ever happened in the long history of trade, business, are all out playing with the methods they have devised.
if some thing? is just not going the way they want? well ;I guess that is what they are? attempting to "ACHIEVE' did they all bring some "'destroyer gods and there variants? along with them?
1-08-2009 @ 5:06PM
tom price said...
Greed, deception, lies and self created economic has doomed america and much of the planet. congratulations upon us.
1-08-2009 @ 5:17PM
Chedar said...
Simple. Somewhere in our economy, someone must have all the monies they make from the real estate. Where are they now? Also, the economic stimulus should come up with real jobs long term jobs for people to qualify again in buying houses and getting the economy going. Simply bailing out AIG and the like is not helping at all. The money just end up to a few CEO's at AIG and the like.
1-08-2009 @ 5:54PM
Anastasia said...
Really does everyone think the stimulus package OB is putting out there is going to save the economy? Soooo your telling me that by creating "Government" jobs ie. Rebuilding Infrastructures, Schools, roads, bridges etc. Basic blue collar construction jobs are going to "save" our economy? Anyone ever heard of how much you have to pay for these government position...Davis Bacon>Prevailing Wage? Look it up. And where is this money to do these jobs coming from? Wouldn't that be the taxpayers? But yet we are at the highest unemployment rates in history? How about the $500/$1000 tax cut per person thru your WITHHOLDING, isn't withholding through your PAYCHECK and if you don't have a J-O-B how is this going to help you the average american put money back into the economy? They should have let the banks/insurance/auto companies fall on their asses and force them to restructure the way they do business. We are headed to a socialist government and for those who think we aren't think again. If they take away tax breaks from companies who hire offshore then those companies will just scale back, not hire and downsize so basically they will have to do business by the governments standards or not do business at all. As for the housing, just get on the MLS and look at the prices of homes they are ridiculous still! And if you don't have absolutely clean credit you can forget about getting one and if you do have good credit you better have 20% sitting in the bank for your down payment...$300,000 house 20% down $60,000.00 Do you have that? Plus what is your debt to income ratio? Do you even know? Add up your car payment, insurance, credit card debt, cell phone, utilities, food, clothing, day care etc. see what it is and learn what you need to be at in order to qualify...But here is a good note...If you owe the IRS and have lost your job they will work with you on a payment plan and won't sic collection agents on you. Now isn't that niiiiiiiice.
1-08-2009 @ 5:53PM
Forrest said...
How come we always hear from the doomsayers. We never hear from another
expert with a different opinion.
1-08-2009 @ 5:57PM
Thom said...
Use TARP funds to have a "Firing Freeze".
1-08-2009 @ 5:58PM
Adam said...
I think from now on news reporters should have to wear a black cloak and hold a sickle.. "Today, more people are dead, starving and losing their homes... and now to the weather"