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14 make-or-break new products for 2009

Just because 2008 featured a massive global financial meltdown, it doesn't mean that companies stopped innovating. In fact, with financial pressures tightening thanks to the economic slowdown, product innovations are much more urgent than they may have been before. Consumers are spending less so companies need their new products to be better than ever if they hope to boost sales. If these new products bomb the future doesn't look very bright for plenty of enterprises.

With that in mind, here are 14 make-or-break new products to watch for in 2009:

  • Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Super iPhone. Apple's sales and profits were $32.5 billion and $4.8 billion in the past 12 months. But its stock is down 52% from its December 2007 high. So it needs an exciting new product to boost sales. The Super iPhone -- rumored to have perhaps a 5" to 8" 4:3 screen with dimples on the screen itself so users can feel the buttons -- could help that. With concerns about Steve Jobs' health persisting, Apple needs to keep blockbuster products flowing.
  • Boeing (NYSE: BA) 787 Dreamliner. Boeing's sales and profits were $65.7 billion and $3.8 billion in the last 12 months during which time its stock has fallen 48%. In September 2007, its stock peaked at $105 on hopes for its 787 Dreamliner -- a fuel-efficient mid-sized aircraft. But as delivery dates have slipped – it's now two years behind schedule – so has Boeing stock. Nevertheless, the 787 has received about 900 orders and now that it has settled a two month machinists strike, it should be able to get things back on schedule and minimize the number of canceled or deferred orders. If Boeing can meet its latest delivery schedule, there is hope for its investors.
  • Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) Stevia-flavored juices. Coca-Cola's sales and profits were $32.1 billion and $6 billion in the past 12 months. But its stock is down 25.6% in the last year. So it could use a big-selling product to boost sales. Stevia-flavored juices -- based on a South American plant extract that is supposedly sweet but lower in calories -- could boost sales. If people who try its product in clubs and youth events in New York and Chicago in 2009 like its Sprite Green, with lemon juice and Truvia (Coke's Stevia brand), Coke stock could rise.
  • Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) Inspiron Mini 9 mini-notebook. Dell's sales and profits were $63.7 billion and $2.8 billion in the past 12 months during which time its stock has fallen 47%. So it needs at least one -- if not many exciting new products -- to boost sales. The Inspiron Mini 9 mini-notebook-- Dell's entry into the rapidly growing netbook category of handheld computers with 9" or 10" displays priced between $350 and $700 -- could help that. But one product will not be enough to fix Dell -- it needs a new strategy.
  • General Motors (NYSE: GM) Chevrolet Volt. GM's sales were $165 billion in the past year during which it lost $22.8 billion, and it has slim prospects for making a profit any time soon. Its stock is down 85% in the past year. Unfortunately, one product will not save GM -- but its Chevy Volt -- a $30,000 electric-gasoline hybrid with a 150,000 mile expected life -- would be good for its image if GM could get it to market. Let's hope GM can stay out of bankruptcy long enough to do it.
  • Kellogg (NYSE: K) Live Bright brain-health bars. Kellogg's sales and profits were $12.7 billion and $1.1 billion in the past 12 months and its stock is down a relatively small 12.5% in the past year. But it could use a burst in sales, which have been up a relatively modest 7.2% per year in the past five years. Its Live Bright brain-health bars -- which contain DHA Omega–3 a nutrient that Kellogg claims is vital to sustain brain health -- could help that. Who wouldn't want to get smarter while eating -- if only it could help you lose weight too!
  • McDonalds (NYSE: MCD) McCafe rollout. McDonalds sales and profits were $23.7 billion and $4.6 billion in the past 12 months and its stock is actually up 11% in the last year. To sustain that stock price, McDonalds needs to grow and if it can finish the roll out of its McCafe -- a Starbucks knock-off -- that would help. McCafe is expected to be rolled out in the U.S. by mid-2009. If McDonalds succeeds, its stock price could keep going up.
  • Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Windows 7. Microsoft's sales and profits were $61.7 billion and $17.8 billion in the past 12 months -- but its stock is down 40% during that time. It needs a really great new product to boost sales. Windows 7, the successor to Windows Vista, which received poor reviews when it came out two years ago, could help that, especially since Microsoft announced that just released a test version to consumers. But in a slumping economy, Windows 7 will have to be an awful lot better than Windows XP to get enough people to switch to the new system.
  • Palm (NASDAQ: PALM) Pre. Palm's sales and net loss were $1.2 billion and $651 million in the past 12 months and its stock is down 40% during that time. Palm has managed to hold on by the skin of its teeth for a decade and it desperately needs a new product to revive its business and its stock price. The Pre -- a rival smart phone which has a slide-out keyboard and will be sold through SprintNextel Corp (NYSE: S) --should hit the market by June 2009. Palm shares rose 35% -- the most since 2004 -- on enthusiasm for the product. If Palm's sales follow the surge in its stock price, it may be able to survive even longer.
  • Procter & Gamble's (NYSE: PG) Tide Total Care. P&G's sales and profits were $85.3 billion and $12.2 billion in the past 12 months and its stock is down a relatively modest 14% during that time. But P&G is a consumer products innovation machine. One of its new products Tide Total Care -- which it claims helps keep your clothes "like new" even after 30 washes -- could be a hit. P&G usually finds out what consumers want and then develops a new product to meet those needs leading to rapid growth. I'm not sure whether Tide Total Care sales will be enough to move the stock up, but it's worth watching.
  • Ritz Carlton's The Reserve. Ritz Carlton LLC is privately held and operates 62 hotels in the Americas, Europe, Asia, The Middle East, and Africa. In 2008 it introduced a new brand -- The Reserve -- with the debut of Molasses Reef, a 125-room boutique hotel on West Caicos, in The Turks and Caicos Islands. The Reserve concept is different from a traditional posh but stiff Ritz style -- instead the Reserve features unique destinations with highly personalized service. In a down economy, there's a chance that The Reserve could be a big investment that does not pay off. If Ritz Carlton is smart, it will not overextend itself.
  • Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) Fairtrade-certified espresso coffee. Starbucks sales and profits were $10.4 billion and $316 million in the past 12 months and its stock is down 44% during that time. Starbucks is suffering from razor-thin margins, competition from McDonalds, and the economy. So it needs a major makeover, which may be beyond the skills of its existing management. Nevertheless, it is trying something new -- Fairtrade-certified espresso -- which will buy 40 million pounds (volume) of beans from small-scale coffee farmers and sell the products in the UK and Ireland. This is a big move but it's not clear whether it will yield enough the sales or higher prices that Starbucks needs to perk up its stock.
  • Toyota Motors (NYSE: TM) Venza SUV/wagon. Toyota's sales and profits were $269.5 billion and $13.4 billion in the past 12 months, but its stock is down 36% during that time. Like the rest of the auto industry, Toyota is suffering from declining demand and excess productive capacity. But it could still use a new product that takes share from the competition in a declining market. So it needs an exciting new product to boost sales. The Venza is a more stylish version of an SUV -- it appeals to people who want a vehicle that is big and safe-seeming yet attractive. Will the Venza be enough to boost Toyota stock? I doubt it, but it could help keep it from falling much further.
  • Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) Marketside. Wal-Mart's sales and profits were $404 billion and $13.6 billion in the past 12 months but its stock is up 20% during that time. Wal-Mart is prospering in this down economy since many more people need its low prices. But all is not well in Wal-Mart land because Britain's Tesco introduced small grocery stores in the U.S., which took market share from Wal-Mart's larger ones. So Wal-Mart responded by opening Marketside -- new, small-format grocery stores of 10,000 square feet (a third the size of its regular grocery stores). Marketside features fresh meat, produce, and prepared foods -- similar to Tesco. We'll see whether it works.

Will these products meet their expectations in 2009? Will you buy any of these? Which ones have we missed? Please comment and let us know.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and his latest book is You Can't Order Change: Lessons from Jim McNerney's Turnaround at Boeing. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

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Last updated: November 08, 2009: 07:55 PM

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