President-elect Barack Obama has said his $700 billion stimulus package will add three million jobs to the economy. Skeptics don't think this is possible because the recession has grown stronger at a speed most economists did not anticipate.
Now, Obama's people think he can do ever better. According to the AP, "President-elect Barack Obama countered critics with an analysis Saturday by his economic team showing that a program of tax cuts and spending like he's proposed would create up to 4.1 million jobs." That math is hard to defend.
The economy lost 540,000 jobs in December. Some experts say it could stay on that pace for the first half of this year. If so, the economy will drop another three million jobs. Certainly looking at the full year, the three million number is certainly reasonable.
Much of the Obama plan is based on building out infrastructure for the energy grid, medical IT, and public works. Programs of that magnitude could take several quarters to get in place. They will involve complex logistics and new agencies to supervise them. By the time most of that is up and running, it could be near to the close of the year.
The reasons that adding four million jobs in America is unlikely is that the economy will shed jobs faster than a stimulus package can ad them, certainly during the period when the economy may be taking its hardest hit. Obama can't fill in that hole fast enough, let alone build a mountain on top of it.
Douglas A. McIntyre is a editor at 247wallst.com.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-13-2009 @ 5:39PM
Bobby said...
Mr. McIntyre, you're exactly right.
This sink hole can't be filled fast enough with temp type infrastructure jobs. Construction spending is one of the hardest to follow & one of the most corrupt. Such as our defense spending budget is so out of control.
The bottom line is once these jobs are in play, they may curtail the dropping numbers in unemployment but won't offer any lasting stability in return business. I'm not totally sure how the funding will be appropriated on these projects but it sounds like most are a one time hit with no returns other than future maintenance.
The one hopeful spot I see is slowing the sinking unemployment numbers until consumers have adjusted in this current economic climate. Perhaps if they feel the tide has turned they may start spending in a responsible fashion again. Some of the bellwether stocks may put on weight pushing the markets higher with a better perception.
The jury is out....
1-11-2009 @ 1:38PM
all mi T said...
looks as if there is No end in sight with this downward economy
1-22-2009 @ 6:19AM
werievents said...
I Hope So