Retail may hold the key to unemployment

Two weeks ago several analysts speculated that over 70,000 stores could close in the first half of the year and that bankruptcies could force many retail chains to close.

The pessimism about the industry is only growing and it raises the question of whether saving retail is akin to keeping unemployment at reasonable levels. If retail collapses much further, a million jobs could be lost fairly fast.

Adding to the concern about the sector, The Wall Street Journal reports that "Drained by the worst consumer-spending slump in decades and burdened by debt, U.S. retailers are expected to begin a wave of post-holiday bankruptcy filings." That is old news. The way the ripple effect works is not.

Unemployment is rising at over 500,000 jobs a month across all parts of the economy. If a typical store employs ten people, closing 70,000 stores increases the pool of the jobless by 700,000 people all by itself. That does not include the failing of businesses that support retail whether they be in the real estate industry or in the parts of the economy that supply stores with everything from clothing to hardware, books to consumer electronics. Looked at that way, the retail industry could touch the jobs of one million people before the middle of the year.

One thing that the Obama plan does not address is how to keep stores open. There are no tax credits for people to move back to shopping. There are no programs to keep store leases from default the way there probably will be for home mortgages.

A failure to address the retail crisis may end up being remarkably expensive.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.