But at least one metric has moved in the correct direction: the U.S. trade deficit, which declined 29% in November 2008 to $40.4 billion on a record decline in imports, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Tuesday.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the November 2008 trade deficit to total $51.5 billion.
Imports declined a record 12% to $183.2 billion -- the lowest level in more than two years -- pushed lower by a large drop in imported oil prices.
Exports dropped 5.8% to $142.8 billion, on declining demand for industrial supplies and capital goods. The October 2008 trade deficit was revised lower to $56.7 billion from the previously released $57.2 billion.
Economist Peter Dawson says there are clear signs of a U.S consumer pull-back in the November trade deficit statistic. "U.S. consumers are in hunker-down mode. The great, but flawed global economic model of 'the world builds, and the U.S. consumes' is over," Dawson said. "There are strong indications the U.S. consumer has done a mind-shift, so the world is going to need growth engines outside the U.S. to pull out of the global recession."
In November, the U.S. registered import declines in: consumer goods -9.4%, autos -6.7%, capital goods -5.9%, and foods/feeds -5.6%. Export declines included: industrial supplies -13%, autos -11%, capital goods -3.8%, and consumer goods -1.7%. Exports of aircraft increased 7.1%.
Economists prefer that a nation run a trade surplus as opposed to a trade deficit, as it usually implies that a nation's goods are competitive on the world stage, its citizens are not consuming too much, and that it's amassing capital for future investment and economic goals.
Trade/Economic Analysis: U.S. imports, and the trade deficit, are likely to continue to trend lower in 2009, as lay-offs continue and amid low imported oil prices. Eventually, when the U.S. economy returns to a sustainable growth track, and if the nation passes an energy policy emphasizing conservation, the U.S. could start to run a trade surplus again.
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