What's more, the 3.8 job seeker stat in November 2008 is more than double the 1.8 job seekers per job vacancy stat recorded a year ago, in November 2007. The nation had 3.4 job seekers per vacancy in the previous month, October 2008.
Stat echos 1981-82 Reagan recession
Economist David H. Wang said the large increase in the job seeker to vacancy ratio is bad news for the U.S. economy.
"These ratios are reminiscent of the Reagan recession [1981-1082], which was a bad recession, with unemployment rising above 10%," Wang said. "The large and increasing number of unemployed adults unable to find employment will substantially increase social service costs in the states, and lead to a host of other economic problems, including a continuance of a high number of home foreclosures."
Further, Wang said it's "virtually impossible for the United States economy to grow as long as job losses remain large. The U.S. economy can't grow while 300,000 or 400,000 jobs are being lost per month. And where there is no GDP growth or little growth, that's not good news for the stock market."
The U.S. economy has lost more than 2.6 million jobs in the past 13 months, including a staggering 1 million in the past two months, November / December 2008. The unemployment rate now stands at 7.2%. The augmented unemployment rate, which includes those who are working part-time because they can't find full-time work, is 10.4%.
Economic Analysis: These days, it's hard to find a positive job market statistic. Perhaps one would be the lack of wage pressure, easing inflation concerns. But continued, stagnant wages represent a danger sign for the economy, as the past two years demonstrate; it suggests there's insufficient demand to drive corporate revenue and earnings growth. Bottom line: the U.S. needs a very large fiscal stimulus package to create demand and get the economy moving again.
Comfort Zone Investing: The unmighty dollar
Five winners of a weak dollar
For a quick-read on the U.S. economy, check the price of gasoline
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-14-2009 @ 2:41AM
BHarrison said...
. . . unprecedented times, to say the least.
And with 300K - 400K jobs being lost each months, coupled with the overall economic melt downs, the unfolding economic frauds, progressively more losses, etc., the situation is going to continue to worsen until the end of 2009 and into 2010, if not longer.
This is not "pessimistic doom and gloom"; it is simply the reality of the overall situation. While we all would like to be "optimistic", we do have to accept the reality of the situation. The biggest problem being that the economic buffers and "reserves" have simply been exhausted and/or skammed out of the economy.
The CEOs' and other managment exorbitant salaries and other compensations, and the special interests "gamesters" have defrauded our FIs, Corporations, and markets for well over a decade. That coupled with our severely imbalanced "balance of trade" and exportation of our manufacturing base has crippled the resources for national economic "recovery".
For the first time in our modern day America, we have simply run out of the funding and resources for any fast and effective recovery . . . that is an unequivocal FACT.
Then to exacerbate the situation, the FIs, the corporations, and the markets have been revealed to be so manipulated and corrupt that those who do have money are understandably hesitant to invest in any of these . . . plus, no interests is being paid on investments and/or deposits. No prudent person is going to invest (or deposit) in investments that virtually have no RoI - Return on Investment, especially, in "HIGH RISKS" investments.
The MOST BASIC SOLUTION requires that the government implements reasonable, basic regulations and effective oversight to INSTILL INTEGRITY in the FIs, the corporations, and the markets . . . There can be NO EFFECTIVE RECOVERY without INTEGRITY in our financial institutions and the markets.
Fraud is Fraud, is FRAUD . . . the absurdity of "off books balance sheet items", "derivatives", etc. is simply another way of saying "FRAUD". The CEOs and CFOs, and other upper managment personnel KNEW that, in essence and literally, all of these unsound business practices were technically and literally "fraud". they should be indicted and prosecuted for fraud. It became so pervasive, so corrupt, so immoral and unethical, and yet, they all bought into going along with it all . . . that is a pathetic reflection on our society that the American people would allow that to occur.
"Ethics and INTEGRITY" will be the cornerstone for any effective recovery efforts to succeed. Without that, we are doomed to a long and arduous recession in the future.