Cramer on BloggingStocks: Two false themes

No, I am talking about the Pepsi (NYSE: PEP) (Cramer's Take) / General Mills (NYSE: GIS) (Cramer's Take) / Kraft (NYSE: KFT) (Cramer's Take) mob, which is going to do well year over year because of the dramatic decline in raw costs. Corn is way, way down. Transport is plummeting in cost year over year. The paperboard and cellophane costs are based on petrol in one form or another, and they are going to be way down. When you couple the price increases with the lack of trade down -- some, but not nearly as much as one would expect -- you get a great growth story. Yet the mutual funds don't care.

The drug stocks with momentum -- Celgene (NASDAQ: CELG) (Cramer's Take), Genzyme (NASDAQ: GENZ) (Cramer's Take), Abbott (NYSE: ABT) (Cramer's Take), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) (Cramer's Take), Gilead (NASDAQ: GILD) (Cramer's Take) -- similarly trade at discounts to their long-term P/Es. Nobody cares either. Given the short- and long-term pricing of Treasuries -- I don't care which discount you use -- we should be at historic PREMIUMS, not discounts. I think that's because no money is around. It's not coming in, it's going OUT. That won't reverse on a dime. It might not reverse for years.

Then there is the second theme, the second-half strengthening because of the money being pumped in. There is still no sign of asset stabilization -- any asset. There is no sign that a bank should make a loan. We have some unfreezing in the credit markets, but at a cost that is so frighteningly high to the borrowers that it isn't worth it or it will cause bankruptcy anyway for all but the most pristine of companies. If you thought there was really going to be a major turn in the fortunes of the economy, you would expect GE (NYSE: GE) (Cramer's Take) to be going up, not down. With its huge portfolio of economically sensitive businesses, including financial services, it is giving a gigantic thumbs-down to the second-half thesis.

That's what I think the market is discovering. It is realizing that the turn in the fortunes of the economy isn't close. We need to see housing stabilize first, but that won't happen until it drops precipitously. The good news here is that the declines are breathtaking -- not over -- which will give us some resolution. The bad news is that I am still not hearing about a tax credit to buy a home. In fact, I hear more about a tax credit to buy a new home, which would destroy my thesis that homes are going to turn in value. The declines in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take) tell you that turn is being put out in time unless it is directly addressed. But you would need 10 times the TARP money just to fix the bad mortgages of 2005-2007. Another "dawning on me" situation.

So, to put it starkly, if there were really money waiting on the sidelines, it should be drawn to these stocks that have premium growth. And if there is a second-half turn about to happen, you would not be repealing the gains from November on that which were supposed to be predicting the turn.

These are the reasons it is suddenly obvious to everyone that we are going to retest the November lows.

I, for one, don't believe we will be any more "successful" in reaching the November lows than we were in reaching Dow 10,000.

We are rangebound, in my opinion. Nothing to panic over, nothing to get excited about. The binary thinking of the market -- new highs, new lows to the averages --would be too wishful in a lot of ways, instead of this torturous meandering.

Bottom line: no resolution.

Random musings: The ETFS are going to operate on the banks today. I wonder if the ultimate goal is to cause a panic on Bank of America's stock. That seems to be the fulcrum, that and GE, of the triple-bear Ultra manipulators. The SEC can't investigate the manipulators because they just approved the products with a note about how they aren't powerful enough to manipulate. ... China remains the strongest market in the world. I remain convinced that China is going to be the engine out of here.

Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Celgene, Abbott, Gilead, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo, GE, Kraft, General Mills and Pepsi.