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Can Nintendo top itself in 2009?

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Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) is simply on fire. Well, the stock might not be exactly, but according to a self-congratulatory press release, the Wii sold 10 million units in the United States in 2008. That, says Nintendo, has never been done before in a single year. The DS handheld system moved 9.95 million units in '08. Sony (NYSE: SNE) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) might as well forget about it. Well, that might be exaggeration, but certainly the PlayStation 3 and the Xbox 360 have found it difficult to attract as many buyers. Here's a great source that lists all the hardware-sales states for '08 and the stats for each console's total sales since release.

It really is amazing to see that Sony has sold only 6.9 million PlayStation 3 consoles over its lifetime in the U.S. while Nintendo has sold more than 17 million Wii players! The question now is, how long can the Nintendo Wii party continue? Oh, I know it'll be strong in '09, and the safe bet is that it'll be number-one again. But from an investor viewpoint, is Nintendo a buy on this news? Has the Wii peaked, in other words? We've got some pretty strong negative-macro headwinds out there. Jobs continue to be lost, consumer confidence is in the abyss, etc. The bad news flow is astounding. Will it affect Nintendo's new year? Well, one interesting product on the way is the Nintendo DSi, which will have two cameras and larger screens. That should propel interest in the Nintendo brand (the release date has not been set, however).

I wouldn't bet against Nintendo, but I'm not sure I'd bet with it at the current price level of the company's ADRs. Please note, though, that I've been wrong about Nintendo before. Still, I'd rather try to get the shares below $40. The 52-week low is currently pegged at $32. I missed that one. Since the shares perked up from that price point, I think more of a pullback would be needed before I'd become interested, especially with all the economic risk out there. It never hurts to buy lower whenever possible, especially nowadays.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 07:09 PM

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