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Does jump in applications signal a mortgage boom?

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Over the past few years, the mortgage business has been virtually dead -- that is, until recently.

Why? The key driver, of course, is the plunge in interest rates (keep in mind that the Federal Reserve plans to buy up $500 billion in mortgages). In fact, you can get a fixed-rate mortgage loan for less than 5%. You'd have to go back to the 1950s to see those levels.

But there's a caveat: the mortgage growth is not for purchasing houses; instead, we are seeing a surge of refinancing activities. But, hey, this is a start, right?

In the first week of 2009, we saw the biggest jump in mortgage applications since 2003 (this is according to a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association). There was a 15.8% jump in the index.

Interestingly enough, it's still fairly difficult to secure a mortgage, especially as underwriting standards have increased. Basically, a large number of consumers have minimal levels of home equity as well as damaged credit.

Now, Fannie Mae is in the process of implementing new programs for troubled borrowers, which should help. What's more, Congress may introduce some new programs.

However, it is critical that housing prices increase again, which means the U.S. economy will need to once again get back on track.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Streetsmart Guide to Short Selling: Techniques the Pros Use to Profit in Any Market. He is also the founder of BizEquity, a valuation website.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 01:41 AM

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