Does jump in applications signal a mortgage boom?

Posted Jan 17th 2009 2:40PM by Tom Taulli
Filed under: Housing, Recession

Over the past few years, the mortgage business has been virtually dead -- that is, until recently.

Why? The key driver, of course, is the plunge in interest rates (keep in mind that the Federal Reserve plans to buy up $500 billion in mortgages). In fact, you can get a fixed-rate mortgage loan for less than 5%. You'd have to go back to the 1950s to see those levels.

But there's a caveat: the mortgage growth is not for purchasing houses; instead, we are seeing a surge of refinancing activities. But, hey, this is a start, right?

In the first week of 2009, we saw the biggest jump in mortgage applications since 2003 (this is according to a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association). There was a 15.8% jump in the index.

Interestingly enough, it's still fairly difficult to secure a mortgage, especially as underwriting standards have increased. Basically, a large number of consumers have minimal levels of home equity as well as damaged credit.

Now, Fannie Mae is in the process of implementing new programs for troubled borrowers, which should help. What's more, Congress may introduce some new programs.

However, it is critical that housing prices increase again, which means the U.S. economy will need to once again get back on track.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Streetsmart Guide to Short Selling: Techniques the Pros Use to Profit in Any Market. He is also the founder of BizEquity, a valuation website.

Tags: Fannie Mae, interest rates, inthenews, Mortgage Bankers Association, Mortgages, Refinancing

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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

1-17-2009 @ 5:48PM

Iridium said...

"However, it is critical that housing prices increase again, which means the U.S. economy will need to once again get back on track."

That is the single dumbest thing I have read all year. You are insane to think that home prices must continue to rise. They still have 20-30% more to fall in order to reach the level of affordability needed for the coming generation to afford them.

Housing prices are still far above the level they were at before the artificial price boom. A house that sold for $140k in 2001 that was driven up to $360k in 2006 and is now selling for $210k is not a bargain. The affordability index in places worth living is the most important economic statistic. This index shows how artificially inflated our economy is. We still have a long way to fall. The realistic level for the Dow is probably 5500. Anything above that is based on the bogus earnings reports manufactured by the mega corporations that have as much truth in them as a politicians speech.

Home prices have been driven so far past realistic levels that people have become delusional. They believe that our economy is built on the notion that the price of a house needs to double every ten years. In fact the price of a house should remain constant, only increasing at the rate of inflation.

The averge wage has barely increased yet housing costs have tripled in many areas. Property taxes are at levels that match or exceed mortage payments in some areas.

You don't have to be a genius to notice that this imbalance along with the mass transfer of wealth from the middle class to the top 1% is why our economy has collapsed.

If the cost of owning a home goes up it will only mean less buyers. The inventory will only continue to grow and the economy will continue to deteriorate.

1-17-2009 @ 7:11PM

Ann said...

Only when we become conciencious of our expectations, we are going to repair this mess. People need housing, after food. Many people can afford to pay according with what they are making today. That sometimes help them and their families to stay in their homes and not moving around looking for rentals and places for their children education.

Lenders instead of just foreclosing on this individuals shall give them a chance to rent those houses back. If the lenders foreclose on this individuals, their loses are greater. When they place those empty homes in the market, bandals move in and still whatever they can take. Even toilets, plumbing, etc. Finally the banks place this homes in accions. The market is full of vultures who make their fortune with others misfortune, nothing wrong with it.

1-17-2009 @ 8:48PM

Jo Ann Johnson said...

Check this out people. I have been trying to buy a house ever since this bubble burst. I figured once in a lifetime deal. I'm a disabled grandmother raising my grandchildren collecting social security and a little welfare. Lenders said yes! we can help you. What a joke! No one wants to give me a 60,000. or less loan to buy a house. It's not enough money for them to even be interested. I won't go over that amount because I still have bills and have living expences. The broker who was handling me even called a couple of them up and put them on speaker so I could hear how they poo-pooed my loan off and started talking about 600,000 accts and half a million accts. I thought money was money.