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Why the U.S. should not settle for just GDP growth without jobs

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Shortly after President-elect Barack Obama, D-Illinois, is inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, congressional policymakers are likely to act on the largest fiscal stimulus package in U.S. history, and send the bill to the new president's desk, hopefully before mid-February.

The bulk of the package provides stimulus aimed at generating economic growth -- i.e. an effort to help pull the U.S. economy out of its worst recession since at least the Reagan era recession in 1981-82.

Equation: job growth = earnings growth

Moreover, the likely programs -- infrastructure projects, energy system improvements, business investment tax credits, and aid to the states, among others -- must have as their primary focus GDP growth and the reason is obvious enough. Consumer spending and business investment cutbacks, along with declining asset prices, have reduced demand to such a degree that absent stimulus targeted to increase demand the U.S. economy will remain in recession through 2009 and well into 2010, many economists agree.

Still, what the nation does not want is a fiscal stimulus package that does not call for additional hiring, so says economist Peter Dawson.

For example, upon approval of the package, dozens of transportation improvement and school building/renovation projects will begin quickly, Dawson said, and along with the increased commercial activity/ripple effect that these projects would create, job creation would not be an insignificant benefit.

"Job creation is not the top priority, but it is a key component of the stimulus package," Dawson said.

The recent decade illustrates why the opposite is not preferable. The United States has just experienced an economic boom with very weak job creation -- the eight-year Bush Administration featured the weakest job growth of any eight-year presidential administration in the modern era -- and the result was what many economists are calling a "mirage expansion," Dawson said. Mirage, in that it was fueled not be increased productive capacity -- i.e., real engines of growth -- but by things that disappear: easy credit and a bubble in home prices.

"The expansion of 2002-2007 contained far too few new jobs, and it also featured a decline in real median incomes, which means the economy was not on a sustainable growth track," Dawson said. "The results were predictable. Earnings advanced, the stock market rose, but only for awhile, and now here we are in 2009. The stock market has collapsed, and the nation is in its worst recession in decades. Now everyone is saying "the key to recovery is spending and investment." Well, to get spending and investment, you need people who can spend, and that means more jobs and new sectors.

Dawson will await the specific details of the proposed $700-$850 fiscal stimulus package before recommending job growth targets for the Obama Administration, but he'll go on record with this, for certain: "The Obama Administration has to create millions more jobs than the Bush Administration did," he said.

Fiscal Policy/Economic Analysis: The fiscal stimulus package approaches and GDP is in focus, as it should be. Remember what robust U.S. GDP growth looked like? It seems like it's been a long time since the U.S. had a thriving economy. Moreover, as economist Dawson noted, job growth cannot be ignored; the U.S. economy must create 100,000 to 125,000 new jobs each month just to keep unemployment from rising. Add the more than 2.6 million jobs lost in 2008 and one can see how many jobs must be created to generate demand, lower unemployment, and get this economy moving again. Hence, infrastructure jobs that create good-paying jobs will be a welcome sight for investors and workforce aspirants, alike.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 03:51 AM

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