Viacom (NYSE: VIA) got handed a nasty downgrade last week. Michael Morris of UBS is quite worried about how Viacom will perform during the awful, awful advertising environment (seriously, it's so bad I couldn't just use a single awful). He cut his target price from $27 to $18. Also, David Joyce of Miller Tabak reduced his target price from $29 to $25. Well, at least he's more optimistic. As of this writing, shares of Viacom were around $17.68.
So, there you go, you've got the opinions of two analysts. Are they right? I'm afraid they just might be. It seems to me that Viacom could be going lower before it heads higher. Of course, the same could probably be said for many, many stocks. It's just the way things are. A lot of pundits had warned that estimates were too high, and now that reality is starting to set in. Plus, Viacom is having well-known issues with growth at cable networks such as MTV. Add to that problems with DVD sales and movie slates, and you've got the overall negative thesis.
You also have to remember that the media industry has been a pretty tough sector to make money in. It seems like Wall Street just doesn't respect these stocks. Look at long-term charts of Disney (NYSE: DIS) and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), for example. Viacom, as well as those two, has arguably been cheap for a very long time, and its collection of assets should be valued with higher multiples. Simply put, there hasn't been a lot of appreciation for these stocks over the years. I've owned Disney since 1998 and can attest to this fact.
The bottom line with Viacom is that it most likely will be heading back to its 52-week low. Again, it's cheap, but with these downgrades, and with the economy, I'm not inclined to play contrarian here. If Viacom were to go below $10 per share (which, admittedly, is way off the price targets issued by the analysts, so maybe I'm dreaming here), I might be tempted.
Even though I just said that I could be dreaming about Viacom below $10, let me also say this: I'm still a bear, and I still believe in the irrationality of the current market players. Sure, it would be ridiculous if Viacom dropped that low, but I've seen a lot of ridiculous things the past several months (as have all of you out there).
Disclosure: I own Disney; positions can change without notice.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-20-2009 @ 10:42AM
scaroth172 said...
How about a little bit of positive thinking? You guys are driving down the market with your bad attitudes.........Cut the crap and start trying to help. You didn't know the bottom was coming, you sure don't know what is coming next. LETS GIVE THIS ADMINISTRATION A CHANCE...................