Viacom's price targets get cut -- should you automatically avoid the stock?


Viacom (NYSE: VIA) got handed a nasty downgrade last week. Michael Morris of UBS is quite worried about how Viacom will perform during the awful, awful advertising environment (seriously, it's so bad I couldn't just use a single awful). He cut his target price from $27 to $18. Also, David Joyce of Miller Tabak reduced his target price from $29 to $25. Well, at least he's more optimistic. As of this writing, shares of Viacom were around $17.68.

So, there you go, you've got the opinions of two analysts. Are they right? I'm afraid they just might be. It seems to me that Viacom could be going lower before it heads higher. Of course, the same could probably be said for many, many stocks. It's just the way things are. A lot of pundits had warned that estimates were too high, and now that reality is starting to set in. Plus, Viacom is having well-known issues with growth at cable networks such as MTV. Add to that problems with DVD sales and movie slates, and you've got the overall negative thesis.

You also have to remember that the media industry has been a pretty tough sector to make money in. It seems like Wall Street just doesn't respect these stocks. Look at long-term charts of Disney (NYSE: DIS) and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), for example. Viacom, as well as those two, has arguably been cheap for a very long time, and its collection of assets should be valued with higher multiples. Simply put, there hasn't been a lot of appreciation for these stocks over the years. I've owned Disney since 1998 and can attest to this fact.


The bottom line with Viacom is that it most likely will be heading back to its 52-week low. Again, it's cheap, but with these downgrades, and with the economy, I'm not inclined to play contrarian here. If Viacom were to go below $10 per share (which, admittedly, is way off the price targets issued by the analysts, so maybe I'm dreaming here), I might be tempted.

Even though I just said that I could be dreaming about Viacom below $10, let me also say this: I'm still a bear, and I still believe in the irrationality of the current market players. Sure, it would be ridiculous if Viacom dropped that low, but I've seen a lot of ridiculous things the past several months (as have all of you out there).

Disclosure: I own Disney; positions can change without notice.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-6.6612,496.15
NASDAQ+11.042,850.12
S&P 500+2.231,318.86

Last updated: May 23, 2012: 06:55 PM

Hot Stocks

General Electric

19.180.00(0.00)

Alcoa

8.61+0.12(+1.41)

Apple Inc

570.56+13.59(+2.44)

Google Inc 'A'

609.46+8.66(+1.44)

Bank of America

7.17+0.19(+2.72)

Wal-Mart Stores

64.58+0.85(+1.33)

Exxon Mobil Corp

82.04+0.09(+0.11)

Ford

10.41+0.22(+2.16)

Citigroup

27.15+0.23(+0.85)

IBM

196.12-0.70(-0.36)

Yahoo

15.38+0.09(+0.59)

Starbucks

55.29+1.92(+3.60)

Microsoft

29.11-0.65(-2.18)

Home Depot

48.74+0.48(+0.99)

DailyFinance Headlines

Benzinga Headlines

TheFlyOnTheWall.com Headlines

BioHealth Investor Headlines

WalletPop Headlines

DailyFinance BlackBerry App

My Portfolios

Track your stocks here!

Find out why more people track their portfolios on AOL Money & Finance then anywhere else.

BloggingStocks Partners

More from AOL Money & Finance

BioHealth Investor Headlines

Page Loaded in 1337813729898 ms.