Art prices could fall 40% in recession

If you were planning to sell that Damien Hirst in your closet to help pay the mortgage, think again. According to a recent piece in Portfolio, "To capitalize on the past few boom years in the art market, Hirst's studio churned out works at a speed that many feared would overwhelm demand, pushing down prices further."

Daniel Komala, president and co-founder of Larasati Auctioneers tells Bloomberg that art prices could fall 40% in 2009. Bloomberg adds that "Confidence levels in the contemporary-art market have fallen 81 percent since May 2008 and may take between three and five years to recover, according to a survey released by research company ArtTactic Ltd. this week. Almost half the respondents to the survey expected auction prices would fall by 30 to 50 percent from their May 2008 highs."

What is ailing the art market seems to be the same thing that's ailing housing. For instance: Speculative buying drove up prices for hot contemporary artists (or houses), leading to a flood of new works (construction) hitting the market. Then consumer confidence took a plunge and now people are freaking out.

Prices for more artists with longer track records -- like Monet -- are not expected to be impacted nearly as much. Shares of leading auctioneer Sotheby's (NYSE: BID) have already been pulverized by concerns about the market, taking another big dive yesterday. But with its solid balance sheet and strong moat, the stock might even be interesting as the ultimate contrarian play right.