In fact, massive hedging, even if prudently deployed, can lead to massive losses, if markets move against you.
Two cases in point: United Airlines and a Metro-New York City housing complex.
On Wednesday, United Airlines parent UAL Corp. (NYSE: UAUA) reported a Q4 loss of of $1.3 billion after it said it paid above-market rates for fuel after it incorrectly calculated fuel prices would rise.
Excluding costs related to fuel-hedge contracts, and other charges, UAL lost $555 million or $4.22 per share in Q4. Further, UAL said it would cut an additional 1,000 positions to reduce overhead costs. UAL's shares fell $1.59 to $10.03 on Wednesday at mid-day.
In other words, UAL's hedges backfired in a big way: to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars. Like so many companies and other large users of fuel, in early 2008 with oil prices soaring - - oil is a major component of jet fuel costs - - UAL attempted to control fuel costs with hedge contracts. However, the oil market collapsed in the second half of 2008, which resulted in the airline paying more money for fuel than it would had it let the corporate expense be vulnerable to market prices.
Economist Peter Dawson said UAL's experience is a classic example of the nature of hedging. "Even though it's designed to reduce risk, hedging involves risk of loss, particularly if the market moves against you in a big way. That happened in UAL's case with oil dropping more than $100 per barrel," Dawson said. "In hedging, you could make a rational move, like UAL, and be very wrong and lose money bigtime."
That was case for a suburban New York City co-op complex, as well. Mike Murphy of Harrison, N.Y., board member for a 70-plus unit co-op, said the co-op complex decided to hedge the residence's heating oil expense by buying heating oil futures contracts. "The market reversed, and even though it makes us even given that we save a dollar in upfront heat expense for every dollar we lose with the oil trade, the reality is the co-op is losing more money than if we simply did not enter the trades," Murphy said. "A lot of money."
"And believe me, the co-op's residents have let us know about it," Murphy added.
Market Analysis: Hedging involves other costs, as well, such as the transaction/broker cost of the trade or option. Therefore, research the market thoroughly before you hedge. Ask: is my risk of loss greater under current market conditions without a hedge, or under a market reversal with a hedge? If it's the latter, the hedge may not make sense, on a risk-adjusted basis.










